美联储今年首次下调基准利率
【中美创新时报2025年9月17日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）美联储周三（17日）将基准利率下调了四分之一个百分点，并预计今年将再下调两次，因为央行对国家劳动力市场健康状况的担忧日益加剧。美联社记者克里斯托弗·鲁加伯对此作了下述报道。
这是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息，将短期利率从4.3%降至4.1%左右。以主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔为首的美联储官员今年维持利率不变，以评估关税、加强移民执法以及特朗普政府其他政策对通胀和经济的影响。
然而，由于近几个月招聘活动几乎停滞，失业率小幅上升，央行的关注点已迅速从通胀（目前通胀仍略高于其2%的目标）转向就业。降低利率可以降低抵押贷款、汽车贷款和商业贷款的借贷成本，并促进经济增长和就业。
鲍威尔在美联储为期两天的会议后的新闻发布会上表示：“在这个活力下降且略显疲软的劳动力市场中，就业下行风险似乎已经上升。”
美联储官员还暗示，预计今年将再降息两次，但2026年仅降息一次，这可能会令华尔街失望。在此次会议召开之前，投资者曾预计今年剩余时间和明年将降息五次。
“我现在并不羡慕他们的工作。”在特朗普的干预下，美联储官员面临着严峻的经济形势。
只有一位美联储决策者反对这一决定：斯蒂芬·米兰 (Stephen Miran)。他由特朗普总统任命，并在周一晚间会议开始前几个小时获得参议院的紧急投票批准。米兰倾向于更大幅度的降息半个百分点，但鲍威尔告诉记者，美联储官员对更大幅度的降息“支持率”并不高。
许多经济学家曾预测会有更多异议，而会议结果表明，鲍威尔能够使委员会表现出团结一致，该委员会包括米兰和特朗普第一任期内任命的另外两名官员，以及特朗普试图解雇的美联储理事丽莎·库克。
美联储既面临着充满挑战的经济环境，也面临着其传统上不受日常政治影响的独立性受到威胁。在招聘活动减弱的同时，通胀依然居高不下。根据消费者价格指数，8月份通胀率同比增长2.9%，高于7月份的2.7%，且明显高于美联储2%的目标。
就业疲软和通胀上升的情况并不常见，因为经济放缓通常会导致消费者减少支出，从而抑制物价上涨。鲍威尔上个月表示，即使关税进一步推高物价，经济增长乏力也能抑制通胀。
另外，特朗普试图解雇库克，这是美联储112年历史上首次有总统试图罢免美联储理事，许多法律学者认为这是对美联储独立性的前所未有的攻击。特朗普政府曾指控库克犯有抵押贷款欺诈罪，但这一指控是在特朗普广泛批评鲍威尔和美联储未能更快、更大幅度降息的背景下提出的。
上诉法院周一晚间维持了先前的裁决，认为解雇库克侵犯了其正当程序权利。下级法院此前也曾裁定，特朗普解雇库克的理由不足。同样在周一晚间，参议院投票通过了对米兰的提名，米兰于周二上午迅速宣誓就职。
特朗普周二表示，美联储官员“必须自己做出选择”，但他补充说，“他们应该听取像我这样的聪明人的意见。”特朗普曾表示，美联储应该将利率降低整整三个百分点。
当被问及哪些迹象表明美联储不再独立于政治压力运作时，鲍威尔表示：“我认为我们永远不会走到那一步。我们现在的工作和以往一模一样。”
在对经济和货币政策的预测中，大多数美联储官员预测，到年底，美联储基准利率将在3.5%至3.75%之间。然而，米兰预测利率将在2.75%至3.0%之间。
美联储的降息举措使其处境与许多其他海外央行有所不同。上周，欧洲央行维持基准利率不变，因为通胀已基本降温，且迄今为止美国关税对经济的损害有限。周五，预计英国央行也将维持利率不变，因为目前通胀率为3.8%，仍高于美国。
题图：美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。Al Drago/摄影师：Al Drago/Bloomberg
附原英文报道：
Federal Reserve cuts key rate for first time this year
By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER The Associated Press,Updated September 17, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.Al Drago/Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point Wednesday and projected it would do so twice more this year as concern grows at the central bank about the health of the nation’s labor market.
The move is the Fed’s first cut since December and lowered its short-term rate to about 4.1 percent, down from 4.3 percent. Fed officials, led by Chair Jerome Powell, had kept their rate unchanged this year as they evaluated the impact of tariffs, tighter immigration enforcement, and other Trump administration policies on inflation and the economy.
Yet the central bank’s focus has shifted quickly from inflation, which remains modestly above its 2 percent target, to jobs, as hiring has grounded nearly to a halt in recent months and the unemployment rate has ticked higher. Lower interest rates could reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans, and boost growth and hiring.
“In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen,” Powell said at a press conference following the Fed’s two-day meeting.
Fed officials also signaled that they expect to reduce their key rate twice more this year, but just once in 2026, which may disappoint Wall Street. Before the meeting, investors had projected five cuts for the rest of this year and next.
Just one Fed policymaker dissented from the decision: Stephen Miran, who President Trump appointed and was confirmed by the Senate in a rushed vote late Monday just hours before the meeting began. Miran preferred a larger half-point cut, but Powell told reporters there wasn’t “very much support” for the bigger-size cut among Fed officials.
Many economists had forecast there would be additional dissents, and the meeting’s outcome suggests that Powell was able to patch together a show of unity from a committee that includes Miran and two other Trump appointees from his first term, as well as a Fed governor, Lisa Cook, whom Trump is seeking to fire.
The Fed is facing both a challenging economic environment and threats to its traditional independence from day-to-day politics. At the same time that hiring has weakened, inflation remains stubbornly elevated. It rose 2.9 percent in August from a year ago, according to the consumer price index, up from 2.7 percent in July and noticeably above the Fed’s 2 percent target.
It’s unusual to have weaker hiring and elevated inflation, because typically a slowing economy causes consumers to pull back on spending, cooling price hikes. Powell suggested last month that sluggish growth could keep inflation in check even if tariffs lift prices further.
Separately, Trump’s attempted firing of Cook is the first time a president has tried to remove a Fed governor in the central bank’s 112-year history, and has been seen by many legal scholars as an unprecedented attack on the Fed’s independence. His administration has accused Cook of mortgage fraud, but the accusation has come in the context of Trump’s extensive criticism of Powell and the Fed for not cutting rates much faster and steeper.
An appeals court late Monday upheld an earlier ruling that the firing violated Cook’s due process rights. A lower court had also previously ruled that Trump did not provide sufficient justification to remove Cook. Also late Monday, the Senate voted to approve Miran’s nomination, and he was quickly sworn in Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday, Trump said Fed officials “have to make their own choice” but added that “they should listen to smart people like me.” Trump has said the Fed should reduce rates by three full percentage points.
When asked what the signs would be that the Fed is no longer functioning independent of political pressure, Powell said, “I don’t believe we’ll ever get to that place. We’re doing our work exactly as we always have now.”
In their projections for the economy and monetary policy, most Fed officials forecast the central bank’s key rate in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent by year end. Miran, however, forecast a rate of 2.75 percent to 3.0 percent.Ceiling will house one HVAC heating/cooling air vent and one continuous exhaust ventilation outlet.
Limited kitchen design ensures compliance with 105 CMR 158.045(A)(8),which requires that Adult Day Health centers providing meals on-site must comply with sanitary codes while not operating full-service kitchens.
The Fed’s move to cut rates puts it in a different spot from many other central banks overseas. Last week, the European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged, as inflation has largely cooled and the economy has seen limited damage, so far, from US tariffs. On Friday, the Bank of England is also expected to keep its rate on hold as inflation, at 3.8 percent, remains higher than in the United States.
