震惊的世界正在考虑特朗普关税带来的经济影响
【中美创新时报2025 年 4 月 4 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）随着股市大幅下跌、各国警告将采取报复措施、美国企业和消费者准备应对其利润和银行账户所受的影响，唐纳德·特朗普总统的全球关税规模周四开始下降。《纽约时报》记者安娜·斯旺森若林大辅和里弗·阿基拉·戴维斯对此作了下述报道。
标准普尔 500 指数下跌近 5%，创下自新冠疫情爆发以来最严重的市场抛售。特朗普数周来一直表示，他将对盟友和对手征收“对等关税”，但周三宣布的关税（将于周六生效）远高于专家的预期。
中国是受关税影响最严重的国家之一，中国誓言将采取反制措施“维护自身权益”。中国官方媒体称这些关税是“自取灭亡的霸凌行为”。
韩国召集了一个紧急工作组，并誓言“投入所有政府资源克服贸易危机”。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在布鲁塞尔表示：“如果你对抗我们中的一个人，你就是在对抗我们所有人。”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙呼吁欧洲公司暂停在美国进行的所有投资，“直到关税问题得到澄清”。
周四，特朗普此前宣布的针对汽车和汽车零部件的关税也生效，其影响立竿见影。加拿大表示，将对 25% 的关税征收同等比例的关税。拥有吉普、Ram、道奇和克莱斯勒的 Stellantis 表示，将暂时停止墨西哥和加拿大两家工厂的生产。
周四，商业团体、贸易专家、经济学家、民主党议员甚至一些共和党人迅速谴责这些关税，称其对经济造成了不必要的拖累。这对美国人的钱包的影响将是深远的，因为预计企业至少会将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。
以下仅仅是许多美国家庭面临新关税的产品中的一小部分：来自台湾的笔记本电脑、来自意大利的葡萄酒、来自印度的冷冻虾、来自越南的耐克运动鞋、爱尔兰黄油。
特朗普称这些关税是为了与其他国家的限制性贸易政策拉平差距，他声称新关税将推动美国制造业复苏。他得到了包括全美汽车工人联合会在内的一些工会组织的支持。
美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 周四在福克斯新闻上表示，关税将带来“美国制造业的最大复兴”。他预测，这些关税将创造“最令人难以置信的就业机会”，包括为没有大学学位的美国人创造就业机会。
“最酷的工作、薪酬最高的工作都来到了美国，唐纳德·特朗普将这些工作带入美国，因为我们厌倦了让这些工作在台湾生产，”卢特尼克说。“我们也厌倦了让这些工作在韩国生产。是时候让这些工作在美国生产了。”
特朗普似乎试图摆脱人们对经济衰退的担忧，他在自己的社交媒体网站 Truth Social 上用大写字母写道：“手术结束了！病人活了下来，正在康复。预测是病人将比以前更强壮、更强壮、更健康、更有弹性。”
与数十年来的贸易政策截然不同，特朗普周三（他称之为“解放日”）宣布对所有进口到美国的商品征收 10% 的基准关税。此外，下周其他国家将以更高的税率征收所谓的互惠关税。
对于美国最大的两个贸易伙伴欧盟和中国，白宫设定的关税分别为 20% 和 34%。对中国的征税将加到特朗普之前设定的 20% 关税中。他还下令关闭一项漏洞，即所谓的“最低限度”豁免，该漏洞允许零售商将价值低于 800 美元的服装和其他商品从中国直接发送给美国购物者而无需支付关税。
其他亚洲国家也受到了特朗普计划的影响。特朗普首次担任总统期间，越南因企业将生产迁出中国而受益，因此被征收了 46% 的关税。台湾、泰国和印度尼西亚被征收了超过 30% 的进口关税。白宫对来自印度的进口产品征收了 26% 的关税。
几十年来，出口一直是摆脱冲突、危机或贫困的亚洲发展中国家走向繁荣的途径。
柬埔寨是服装和鞋类生产国，被征收了 49% 的关税。美国是该国最大的出口市场。柬埔寨执政党柬埔寨人民党发言人索恩山表示：“作为一个小国，我们只想生存下去。”
特朗普指责这些国家廉价商品的销售导致美国制造业空心化。但它们也有助于缓和通胀，使美国消费者的物价保持在可控范围内。
华盛顿昆西负责任国家研究所全球南方项目主任萨朗·希多尔表示，关税将对几个发展中国家造成最严重的打击，同时鼓励世界大部分国家更快地走向一个没有美国为中心的秩序。
“就贸易而言，我们处于一个多极化的世界，存在替代市场，”他说。“当然，多元化会伴随着痛苦和交易成本。”
日本和韩国等亲密盟友也未能幸免，包括从美国购买的商品多于向美国出售商品的澳大利亚和巴西在内的国家也未能幸免。
尽管中国、韩国和部分欧盟成员国做出了愤怒反应，但一些国家则较为克制。
日本首相石破茂称这些关税“令人极为遗憾”。但他没有谈论报复，而是表示日本政府正试图让特朗普政府相信，日本正在帮助美国再次实现工业化。
英国也没有暗示会立即采取报复措施。相反，英国首相凯尔·斯塔默表示将继续与美国进行贸易协议谈判。
商界领袖们正在想办法应对关税，但这颠覆了他们之前做出的一些假设。
在特朗普第一任期内，科技公司将部分生产转移到越南，以防与中国发生贸易战。目前，越南三分之一的出口产品是电子产品。
过去几年，苹果将 AirPods、手表和 iPad 的生产转移到了越南。多年来，苹果一直完全依赖中国工厂，现在将部分 iPhone 生产转移到了印度。现在，这些国家都不再是避风港，投资者担心这会对苹果的收入产生影响。该公司领跌科技股；其股价下跌了 9%。
特朗普的政策也使美国小型企业的决策变得复杂。加利福尼亚州托伦斯玩具制造商 Move2Play 的联合创始人布伦登·麦克莫罗表示，该公司自大约九年前成立以来，所有产品都在中国生产。但它开始考虑在越南或印度建厂，以免受针对中国制造产品的关税影响。
在越南，Move2Play 发现中国公司经营的工厂使用来自中国的材料，成本也低不了多少。因此，该公司决定在印度试生产一款玩具。麦克莫罗说，鉴于越南目前征收的高额关税，这一决定似乎更为明智。该公司研究了是否可以在美国生产，但他说，成本大约是中国的五倍。
尽管关税成本较高，但他认为现在在美国进行生产不再具有可行性。
“我认为在美国投资大量制造确实没有意义，”他说。“如果下一任总统上任后突然取消所有这些关税，那么你们的处境就会很糟糕。”
“解放日”关税的规模促使一些国会议员（包括少数共和党人）试图重申国会对关税的权力。宪法的商业条款赋予立法机构对贸易的权力，但在现代，这一权力已越来越多地被移交给总统。
爱荷华州共和党参议员查克·格拉斯利和华盛顿州民主党参议员玛丽亚·坎特韦尔提出了《2025 年贸易审查法案》，该法案要求总统在征收新关税后 48 小时内通知国会，并给予国会 60 天的时间来批准或否决。但即使参议院通过该法案，共和党控制的众议院也不太可能考虑它。
本文最初刊登于《纽约时报》。
题图：特朗普总统。吉姆·洛·斯卡尔佐/彭博社
附原英文报道：
A stunned world reckons with economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs
By Ana Swanson, Daisuke Wakabayashi and River Akira Davis New York Times,Updated April 4, 2025, 1:35 a.m.
President Trump.Jim Lo Scalzo/Bloomberg
WASHINGTON — The scale of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs began to sink in Thursday as stock markets fell sharply, countries warned of retaliation and U.S. companies and consumers braced for the impact on their bottom lines and bank accounts.
The S&P 500 tumbled nearly 5%, the worst market sell-off since the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump had said for weeks that he would impose “reciprocal tariffs” on allies and adversaries, but the tariffs announced Wednesday, which will begin to take effect Saturday, were far higher than experts had expected.
China, one of the countries hardest hit by the tariffs, vowed to take countermeasures to “safeguard its own rights and interests.” Its state media described the tariffs as “self-defeating bullying.”
South Korea convened an emergency task force and vowed to “pour all government resources to overcome a trade crisis.” In Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said, “If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.” French President Emmanuel Macron called on European companies to suspend all investments in the United States “until things have been clarified” over the tariffs.
Also Thursday, tariffs Trump previously announced on automobiles and auto parts took effect, and the impact was immediate. Canada said it would match the 25% tariff with an equal one. Stellantis, which owns Jeep, Ram, Dodge and Chrysler, said it was temporarily halting production at a plant in Mexico and another in Canada.
As Trump’s tariffs roil stock market, investment advisors urge caution: ‘We know it’s painful’
Business groups, trade experts, economists, Democratic lawmakers and even a few Republicans swiftly denounced the tariffs Thursday as an unnecessary drag on the economy. The effect on American wallets will be broad, as companies are expected to pass on at least some of the costs of the tariffs to customers.
Just a sampling of the products found in many American homes that are facing new tariffs: laptop computers from Taiwan, wine from Italy, frozen shrimp from India, Nike sneakers from Vietnam, Irish butter.
Trump has framed the tariffs as an attempt to level the field with other countries’ restrictionist trade policies, and he contends the new levies will lead to a renewal in U.S. manufacturing. He is getting support from some labor unions, including the United Auto Workers.
On Fox News, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said Thursday that the tariffs would lead to “the greatest renaissance of manufacturing in America.” He predicted they would create “the most incredible set of jobs,” including for Americans without college degrees.
“The coolest jobs, the highest-paying jobs, they’re all coming to America, and Donald Trump is bringing them in because we are tired of having them built in Taiwan,” Lutnick said. “We’re tired of having it built in South Korea. It’s time for these things to be built in America.”
Trump appeared to try to shake off fears of an economic downturn when he wrote on Truth Social, his social media site, in all capital letters: “The operation is over! The patient lived, and is healing. The prognosis is that the patient will be far stronger, bigger, better, and more resilient than ever before.”
In a sharp shift from decades of trade policy, Trump instituted Wednesday (what he called “Liberation Day”) a 10% baseline duty on all goods imported into the United States. In addition, other nations will be charged a so-called reciprocal tariff at an even higher rate next week.
For the European Union and China, the two largest U.S. trading partners, the White House set tariffs of 20% and 34%. The levy on China will be added to a 20% tariff Trump previously established. He also ordered the closure of a loophole, known as the “de minimis” exemption, that allowed retailers to send clothes and other goods worth less than $800 from China directly to American shoppers without paying tariffs.
Other Asian countries were affected by Trump’s plan. A 46% levy was placed on Vietnam, a beneficiary of companies’ moving production out of China during the first Trump presidency. Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia were dealt import duties of more than 30%. The White House put a 26% tariff on imports from India.
For decades, exports have served as a pathway to prosperity for developing Asian countries emerging from conflict, crisis or poverty.
Cambodia, a producer of clothing and footwear, was hit with a 49% tariff. The United States is the country’s largest export market. “As a small country, we just want to survive,” said Sok Eysan, a spokesperson for Cambodia’s ruling Cambodian People’s Party.
Trump has blamed the sale of inexpensive goods from these countries for the hollowing out of America’s manufacturing sector. But they have also helped to moderate inflation, keeping prices in check for U.S. consumers.
Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, said the tariffs would hit several developing countries hardest while encouraging much of the world to move more quickly toward an order without the United States at its center.
“When it comes to trade, we are very much in a multipolar world, and alternative markets exist,” he said. “Of course, there will be pain and transaction costs in diversification.”
Close allies such as Japan and South Korea were not spared. Neither were countries including Australia and Brazil that buy more from the U.S. than they sell to it.
While China, South Korea and some members of the European Union reacted angrily, some countries were more restrained.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan called the tariffs “extremely regrettable.” But he refrained from talk of retaliation, saying his government was trying to impress upon the Trump administration that Japan was helping the United States to industrialize again.
Britain also did not suggest it would immediately retaliate. Instead, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said negotiations toward a trade deal with the United States would continue.
Business leaders were trying to figure out how to contend with the tariffs, which upended some assumptions they had made.
During the first Trump term, technology companies moved some production to Vietnam in case of a trade war with China. A third of Vietnam’s exports are now electronics.
Apple moved manufacturing of AirPods, watches and iPads over the past several years to Vietnam. It shifted some iPhone production to India after years of relying solely on Chinese factories. Now that none of those countries are safe havens, investors feared the effect on Apple’s revenues. The company led a sell-off of tech stocks; its shares fell 9%.
Trump’s policies are also complicating decisions for smaller U.S. businesses. Brenden McMorrow, co-founder of Move2Play, a toymaker in Torrance, California, said the company had built all of its products in China since it started about nine years ago. But it began to consider factories in Vietnam or India to protect against tariffs on Chinese-made products.
In Vietnam, Move2Play found that the factories run by Chinese companies using materials from China were not much cheaper. Instead, it decided to try a test run of making one of its toys in India, a decision McMorrow said seems better with the lofty tariff now imposed on Vietnam. It studied whether it could manufacture in the United States, but he said that the costs were roughly five times higher than in China.
Despite the higher cost of tariffs, he doesn’t see U.S. production as any more viable now.
“I don’t think it really makes sense to invest in trying to do a lot of this manufacturing in the U.S.,” he said. “If the next president comes in and just reverses course on all these tariffs, then you’re going to be in a terrible spot.”
The extent of the “Liberation Day” levies led some members of Congress, including a handful of Republicans, to try to reassert congressional authority over tariffs. The Constitution’s commerce clause gives the legislative branch power over trade, but in modern times, that has increasingly been ceded to the president.
Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., introduced the Trade Review Act of 2025, a bill that would require the president to notify Congress of new tariffs within 48 hours of imposition and give Congress 60 days to approve or disapprove. But even if the Senate were to pass the bill, the Republican-controlled House would be unlikely to consider it.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
