特朗普可能会重塑经济。这些马萨诸塞州的企业主正押注于此

【中美创新时报2025 年 3 月 30 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）特朗普对经济的强硬态度可能会让股票投资者和经济学家感到不安，而在马萨诸塞州，他削减联邦对大学和医院的资助可能会危及就业、研究和医疗保健。但即使在不确定的情况下，也并非所有人都为艰难时期做好准备。一些当地首席执行官和企业主认为，总统重组经济和控制政府支出的努力从长远来看将获得回报。《波士顿环球报》专栏作家梁淑玲（Shirley Leung）对此作了下述报道 。

乔·拜登入主白宫的四年间，比尔·约翰逊位于南哈德利的汽车修理和拖车公司生意兴隆，但他的底线却讲述了另一番景象。

“我学到了一件事，”约翰逊说。“忙碌并不意味着生意好。”

能源成本飙升、通货膨胀加剧和监管加强严重挤压了约翰逊企业的利润，以至于他多年来一直推迟购买任何新的大型设备——直到唐纳德·特朗普赢得 11 月的选举。约翰逊认为特朗普执政后，业务会像第一任期一样好转，因此他订购了两辆新的拖车，每辆售价 17 万美元。

现在，即使股市受到特朗普关税政策的冲击且经济衰退担忧加剧，约翰逊仍然保持乐观。

“经济复苏的道路上可能会有些坎坷，”约翰逊说道。“这有点像公司破产后申请重组……重组的过程很艰难，但他们会变得更加强大。”

特朗普对经济的强硬态度可能会让股票投资者和经济学家感到不安，而在马萨诸塞州，他削减联邦对大学和医院的资助可能会危及就业、研究和医疗保健。但即使在不确定的情况下，也并非所有人都为艰难时期做好准备。一些当地首席执行官和企业主认为，总统重组经济和控制政府支出的努力从长远来看将获得回报。

“我想说，大家普遍认为，在特朗普政府的领导下，企业将会变得更好，”昆西 Granite Telecommunications 的首席执行官罗伯特·黑尔 (Robert Hale) 表示，他自称是一名财政温和的民主党人，也是前州长查理·贝克 (Charlie Baker) 的坚定支持者。

黑尔并不赞同特朗普所做的一切，拜登政府虽然没有损害他的生意，但也帮不上什么忙。“特朗普政府的态度是支持商业的，对一个商人来说，顺风顺水而不是迎风而上，这是完全不同的，”他说。

其他企业主感觉拜登的一些标志性举措落后了，比如《通胀削减法案》，该法案为清洁能源等新兴产业注入了数千亿美元资金。

“大学、机构、环保组织获得了大量资金，但这并不是经济增长的方式，”尼德姆广告公司 Mittcom 的首席执行官布鲁斯·米特曼 (Bruce J. Mittman) 表示，他在全国拥有 34 家广播电台。“政府支持我们，帮助我们发展，保持市场安全和公平，让所有人都能借贷，但它不是来决定赢家和输家的，我认为上届政府这样做对他们不利。”

在特朗普的第一任期内，许多商界领袖和团体明确地在一系列问题上与特朗普保持距离，从禁止穆斯林移民入境到他未谴责 1 月 6 日美国国会大厦遇袭事件。但在第二任期内，尽管特朗普加大了驱逐力度和反多元化言论，但从硅谷到华尔街的高管们都纷纷加入特朗普的阵营，参加他的就职典礼并取消企业多元化计划。

尽管如此，特朗普仍然是一个两极分化的人物，尤其是在马萨诸塞州，即使是支持他的企业主也常常保持沉默，因为他们担心遭到反弹，马萨诸塞州财政联盟执行董事保罗·克雷尼说。他认为，一些在 2020 年支持拜登-哈里斯组合的企业主在 2024 年转而支持特朗普。

“四年前在竞选舞台上与特朗普对决的拜登——他第一次想要团结国家——与人们在白宫看到的拜登不同，”克雷尼观察道。“我认识很多企业主，他们只是觉得他们过去四年基本都在坚持。这很艰难。……他们觉得当权者并不关心他们想做什么。”

但有一件事让人难以接受，那就是特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥、中国和其他国家不断升级的关税战。虽然企业主们对特朗普让更多制造业回归美国的目标表示赞赏，但随着他的战略不断演变，很难制定计划。

“如果有关税，我们将学会忍受——同样，通过重组会造成短期痛苦，但企业和人们会适应，”住在韦尔斯利的高蛋白食品制造商Bariatrix Nutrition的首席执行官罗德·艾格 (Rod Egger) 说道，该公司在佛蒙特州、加拿大和法国设有工厂。“最糟糕的事情是走上一条道路，然后在六个月或十二个月内逆转。”

目前，艾格正在做一些小调整，但还没有做出大动作。他将把大约 30 个工作岗位带回美国，从蒙特利尔工厂迁到佛蒙特州。这是因为 Bariatrix 的大部分原材料都是在美国制造的，而在关税战中，加拿大的制造成本变得更高。

埃格补充道：“如果他的关税策略得到良好沟通、经过深思熟虑，那么它将非常有效地推动制造业回流美国。”

还有一些企业主，比如昆西建筑公司老板杰伊·卡什曼 (Jay Cashman)，他认为现在判断特朗普的政策是否会增强经济还为时过早。

投票支持特朗普的卡什曼表示，到目前为止，他喜欢让亿万富翁商人埃隆·马斯克来颠覆政府，提高政府效率的想法。“我认为埃隆·马斯克的世界，”卡什曼说。“这是一个不同的视角。”

但对于其他问题，卡什曼表示他采取“观望”态度，尽管他并不太担心。

“我很务实，”他补充道。“美国具有韧性。它几乎可以承受一切。……我认为这没问题。”

Shirley Leung 是商业专栏作家。她的联系方式：shirley.leung@globe.com。

题图：员工 Walter Ragoza 在南哈德利的 Pleasant Street Autobody 工作。David L. Ryan/Globe 员工

附原英文报道：

Trump could reshape the economy. These Massachusetts business owners are betting on it.

By Shirley Leung Globe Columnist,Updated March 30, 2025

Employee Walter Ragoza works at Pleasant Street Autobody in South Hadley.David L. Ryan/Globe Staff

During the four years Joe Biden was in the White House, business was brisk for Bill Johnson’s auto repair and towing companies in South Hadley, but his bottom line told a different story.

“There’s one thing I learned,” Johnson said. “Being busy does not mean business is good.”

Soaring energy costs, higher inflation, and increased regulation squeezed profits at Johnson’s enterprise so much so that he put off buying any new major equipment for years — until Donald Trump won November’s election. Betting that business would improve under Trump, as it had during his first term, Johnson ordered two new tow trucks, for $170,000 apiece.

And now, even with the stock market rattled by Trump’s tariff policies and recession fears rising, Johnson remains bullish.

“There might be a rocky road a little bit as the economy resets,” said Johnson. “It’s kind of like when a company files for a reorganization after bankruptcy. … It’s tough times going through that reorganization, but they come out of it a lot stronger.”

Trump’s sledgehammer approach to the economy may be unnerving to stock investors and economists, and in Massachusetts, his push to slash federal funding to universities and hospitals could jeopardize jobs, research, and health care access. But even amid the uncertainty, not everyone is bracing for bad times. Some local CEOs and business owners believe the president’s efforts to restructure the economy and rein in government spending will pay off in the long run.

“I would say pretty universally the sentiment is that businesses are going to be better under the Trump administration,” said Robert Hale, CEO of Granite Telecommunications in Quincy, a self-described fiscally moderate Democrat who was a big supporter of former governor Charlie Baker.

Hale doesn’t agree with all of what Trump is doing, and while the Biden administration did not hurt his business, it didn’t help either. “The Trump administration’s sentiment is pro business, which, as a business person, the wind at your back instead of in your face, is a lot different,” he said.

Other business owners have felt left behind by some of Biden’s signature initiatives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which injected hundreds of billions of dollars into emerging industries like clean energy.

“Universities, institutions, environmental groups were getting large amounts of funding, and that’s really not how an economy grows,” said Bruce J. Mittman, CEO of Needham advertising agency Mittcom who also owns 34 radio stations across the country. “Government is there to support us and help us grow and keep the marketplaces safe and fair, and borrowing accessible to all, but it’s not there to determine winners and losers, and I think the last administration did that, to their detriment.”

During Trump’s first term, many business leaders and groups clearly distanced themselves on issues ranging from his travel ban of Muslim immigrants to his failure to condemn the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. But in his second term, even as Trump has ratcheted up deportation efforts and anti-diversity rhetoric, executives from Silicon Valley to Wall Street have fallen in line, attending his inauguration and rolling back corporate diversity programs.

Still, Trump remains a polarizing figure, especially in Massachusetts where even supportive business owners often stay quiet because they fear blowback, said Paul Craney, executive director of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance. He thinks some business owners who backed the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020 switched to Trump in 2024.

“The Biden that was on the campaign stage against Trump four years ago — his first time where he wanted to kind of unify the country — was not the Biden people saw in the White House,” observed Craney. “I know a lot of business owners who just felt they were just basically making it the last four years. It was tough. … They didn’t feel like people in power cared about what they were trying to do.”

But one thing that has been tough to swallow is Trump’s escalating tariff war against Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries. While business owners laud Trump’s goal to bring more manufacturing back to the US, it’s difficult to plan when his strategy keeps evolving.

“If there are tariffs, we will learn to live with them — again, short-term pain through that restructuring, while businesses adapt and people adapt,” said Rod Egger, who lives in Wellesley and serves as CEO of Bariatrix Nutrition, a high-protein food manufacturer with factories in Vermont, Canada, and France. “The worst thing would be to start down a path and then reverse course in six months or 12 months.”

For now, Egger is making minor adjustments but holding off on big moves. He’s bringing about 30 jobs back to the US, shifting from his Montreal factory to Vermont. That’s because much of Bariatrix’s source material is made in the US, and manufacturing in Canada has become more expensive amid the tariff fight.

“If his tariff strategy is well communicated, and well thought out, it could be very effective for reshoring manufacturing to the US,” added Egger.

Then there are business owners like Quincy construction firm owner Jay Cashman, who think it’s way too early to say if Trump’s policies will strengthen the economy.

Cashman, who voted for Trump, said so far he likes the idea of bringing in billionaire businessman Elon Musk to disrupt government and make it more efficient. “I think the world of Elon Musk,” said Cashman. “It’s a different perspective.”

But on other matters, Cashman said he’s taking a “wait and see” approach, though he’s not too worried.

“I’m pragmatic,” he added. “America is resilient. It can take almost anything. … I think this could be OK.”