特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税,引发通胀和贸易战的可能性

【中美创新时报2025 年 2 月 1 日编译讯】(记者温友平编译)特朗普总统周六签署命令,对来自墨西哥、加拿大和中国的进口产品征收高额关税,在即将爆发的贸易战中迅速遭到该国北美邻国的报复。美联社对此作了下述报道。
这位共和党总统在社交媒体上发帖称,征收关税是“保护美国人”的必要措施,敦促这三个国家采取更多措施遏制非法芬太尼的生产和出口,并敦促加拿大和墨西哥减少非法移民进入美国。这一行动履行了特朗普对选民的承诺之一,但却使全球经济和特朗普自己降低价格的政治使命陷入混乱。
如果关税持续下去,可能会导致通胀大幅恶化,可能削弱选民对特朗普能否如约降低食品杂货、汽油、住房、汽车和其他商品价格的信任。
特朗普宣布经济紧急状态,对所有从中国进口的商品征收 10% 的关税,对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的商品征收 25% 的关税。但从加拿大进口的能源,包括石油、天然气和电力,将按 10% 的税率征税。
这一行动引发了美国与墨西哥和加拿大这两个最大贸易伙伴的经济僵局,颠覆了数十年的贸易关系,这两个国家可能会采取严厉的报复措施。

墨西哥总统立即下令征收报复性关税,加拿大总理表示,该国将对高达 1550 亿美元的美国进口商品征收 25% 的关税。中国没有立即对特朗普的行动作出回应。
特朗普的命令包括一种机制,以升级美国对其他国家报复的税率,这引发了更严重的经济混乱的担忧。
加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多周六表示,加拿大对价值 300 亿美元的美国酒精和水果贸易征收的关税将于周二生效,届时美国关税也将生效。他在向加拿大人发表讲话时首先向美国消费者传达了一条信息。
“这将对你们美国人民产生真正的影响,”他说,这将导致食品杂货和其他商品的价格上涨。
特鲁多传达了许多加拿大人的观点,他们感到被邻居和长期盟友背叛了,他提醒美国人,加拿大军队曾在阿富汗与他们并肩作战。
“白宫今天采取的行动使我们分裂,而不是让我们团结起来,”特鲁多用法语警告说,这可能会给许多人带来“黑暗时期”。
墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆表示,她已指示经济部长采取报复性关税和其他措施来保护墨西哥的利益。
“我们坚决反对白宫对墨西哥政府与犯罪组织有联盟的诽谤,以及任何干涉我们领土的意图,”谢因鲍姆在X上的一篇文章中写道。
“如果美国政府及其机构想解决本国严重的芬太尼消费问题,他们可以打击大城市街头贩毒,而他们并没有这样做,以及这种非法活动产生的洗钱行为,这种洗钱行为给墨西哥人民造成了巨大的伤害。”
与此同时,加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省省长大卫·埃比呼吁居民停止从美国“红色”州购买酒类,并表示将把美国酒类品牌从政府商店的货架上撤下,以回应这些关税。
在电视讲话中,埃比认为特朗普政府的决定是“对值得信赖的盟友和朋友的经济宣战”,他将为他的公民和所有加拿大人挺身而出。
“从今天起,我已指示不列颠哥伦比亚省的酒类销售商立即停止从红州购买美国酒类,”他说。“酒类商店的员工将从政府商店的货架上撤下这些品牌中最受欢迎的酒类。”
关税将于周二生效,在北美引发一场可能破坏经济增长的摊牌。耶鲁大学预算实验室的一项新分析列出了对美国经济可能造成的损害,称美国普通家庭将因税收而损失相当于 1,170 美元的收入。经济增长将放缓,通货膨胀将恶化——如果这些国家采取报复行动,情况可能会更加糟糕。
一位不愿透露姓名的美国政府高级官员表示,降低能源税率反映了希望将汽油或公用事业价格的任何破坏性上涨降至最低的愿望。这表明白宫官员明白他们在通胀问题上所承担的赌注。前总统拜登执政期间物价飙升导致选民失望,这帮助特朗普去年重返白宫。
这位官员表示,特朗普签署的命令不包含给予例外的机制,这可能会对依赖加拿大木材的房屋建筑商以及农民、汽车制造商和其他行业造成打击。
特朗普政府实施关税是为了迫使这三个国家停止芬太尼的传播和制造,此外还向加拿大和墨西哥施压,要求他们限制任何非法移民进入美国。
这位官员没有提供取消新关税的具体基准,只是说最好的衡量标准是减少死于芬太尼成瘾的美国人。
该命令还将允许对价值低于 800 美元的加拿大进口产品征收关税。低于该金额的进口产品目前可以免关税进入美国。
“这在经济上没有多大意义,”战略与国际研究中心高级顾问、前美国贸易官员威廉·赖因施 (William Reinsch) 表示。“从历史上看,我们对原材料征收的关税一直很低,因为我们想获得更便宜的材料,这样我们的制造商才能具有竞争力……现在,他在说什么?他在谈论原材料关税。我不明白这其中的经济意义。”
这位共和党总统正在进行一项重大的政治赌注,即他的行动不会显著加剧通货膨胀,不会引发可能破坏全球经济稳定或引发选民强烈反对的金融余震。AP VoteCast 对去年大选的选民进行了广泛的调查,发现美国对关税的支持存在分歧。
通过征收关税,特朗普正在履行其经济和国家安全理念的核心承诺。但这一声明表明了他对这一问题的严肃态度,因为一些特朗普盟友淡化了提高进口税的威胁,认为这只是谈判策略。
总统正在准备征收更多进口税,这表明关税将成为他第二任期的持续组成部分。周五,他提到了进口计算机芯片、钢铁、石油和天然气,以及铜、药品和欧盟进口产品——这些举措可能使美国与全球大部分经济对立。
目前尚不清楚关税将如何影响特朗普所说的由于他计划降低企业税率和取消监管而将发生的商业投资。关税往往会提高进口外国商品的成本,从而提高消费者和企业的价格。
许多选民在 11 月的选举中转向特朗普,因为他们相信他能更好地应对拜登执政期间飙升的通胀。但密歇根大学消费者信心指数显示,通胀预期正在缓慢上升,受访者预计价格将上涨 3.3%。这将高于 12 月消费者价格指数中实际 2.9% 的年通胀率。
特朗普曾表示,政府应该从关税中增加更多收入,就像 1913 年所得税成为宪法一部分之前所做的那样。他声称,尽管有相反的经济证据,但美国在 19 世纪 90 年代总统威廉·麦金莱 (William McKinley) 的领导下是最富有的。
“我们是世界上最富有的国家,”特朗普周五表示。“我们是一个关税国家。”
特鲁多告诉加拿大人,他们未来可能会面临困难时期,但渥太华准备在必要时以报复性关税作出回应,而美国的惩罚将是自我破坏。
特鲁多表示,加拿大正在实施一项耗资 13 亿加元(9 亿美元)的边境计划,包括直升机、新的警犬队和成像工具,以应对特朗普对边境安全的呼吁。
特朗普仍需通过国会获得预算、减税和增加政府的合法借贷权限。他的关税计划的结果可能会增强他的权力,也可能会削弱他的权力。
民主党迅速表示,未来的任何通胀都是特朗普的结果,特朗普即将开始他作为总统的第三周任期。
“你担心食品杂货价格。唐纳德的关税提高了价格,”纽约州参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默在 X 上发帖称。“你担心西红柿价格。等到特朗普对墨西哥征收关税,你的西红柿价格就会上涨。……你担心汽车价格。等到特朗普对加拿大征收关税,你的汽车价格就会上涨,”他在一系列帖子中写道。
美联社记者克里斯托弗·谢尔曼在墨西哥城和保罗·怀斯曼在华盛顿对本报道做出了贡献。
题图:2025 年 2 月 1 日,华盛顿州布莱恩,和平拱门公园的一块标志牌标志着美国和加拿大之间的边界。David Ryder/Getty
附原英文报道:
Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, spurring prospect of inflation and trade war
By the Associated Press Updated February 1, 2025
A sign marks the border between the United States and Canada at Peace Arch Park on February 1, 2025 in Blaine, Washington. David Ryder/Getty
PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President Trump on Saturday signed an order to impose stiff tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, drawing swift retaliation from the country’s North American neighbors in an emerging trade war.
The Republican president posted on social media that the tariffs were necessary “to protect Americans,” pressing the three nations to do more to curb the manufacture and export of illicit fentanyl and for Canada and Mexico to reduce illegal immigration into the US The action fulfilled one of Trump’s commitments to voters but threw the global economy and Trump’s own political mandate to lower prices into turmoil.
The tariffs, if sustained, could cause inflation to significantly worsen, possibly eroding voters’ trust that Trump could as promised lower the prices of groceries, gasoline, housing, autos and other goods.
Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place duties of 10% on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. But energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at a 10% rate.
Canada’s government is expected to swiftly respond to Trump’s levies
The action provoked an economic standoff with America’s two largest trading partners in Mexico and Canada, upending a decades-old trade relationship with the possibility of harsh reprisals by those two nations.
Mexico’s president immediately ordered retaliatory tariffs and Canada’s prime minister said the country would put matching 25% tariffs on up to $155 billion in US imports. China did not immediately respond to Trump’s action.
Trump’s order includes a mechanism to escalate the rates charged by the US against retaliation by the other countries, raising the specter of an even more severe economic disruption.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Saturday said that Canadian duties on $30 billion in trade in American alcohol and fruit will take effect Tuesday, when the US tariffs go into effect. He opened his address to Canadians with a message aimed at American consumers.
“It will have real consequences for you, the American people,” he said, saying it would result in higher prices on groceries and other goods.
Trudeau channeled the views of many Canadians who were feeling betrayed by their neighbor and longtime ally, reminding Americans that Canadian troops fought alongside them in Afghanistan.
“The actions taken today by the White House split us apart instead of bringing us together,” Trudeau said, warning in French that it could bring about “dark times” for many people.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had instructed her economy secretary to implement a response that includes retaliatory tariffs and other measures in defense of Mexico’s interests.
“We categorically reject the White House’s slander that the Mexican government has alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention of meddling in our territory,” Sheinbaum wrote in a post on X.
“If the United States government and its agencies wanted to address the serious fentanyl consumption in their country, they could fight the sale of drugs on the streets of their major cities, which they don’t do and the laundering of money that this illegal activity generates that has done so much harm to its population.”
Meanwhile, the Premier of Canadian province of British Columbia, David Eby, called on residents to stop buying liquor from US “red” states and said it was removing American alcohol brands from government store shelves as a response to the tariffs.
In a televised message, Eby deemed the Trump’s administration decision as “a declaration of economic war against a trusted ally and friend” and that he will stand up for his citizens and all Canadians in general.
“Effective today, I have directed B.C. liquor sales to immediately stop buying American liquor from red states,” he said. “Liquor store employees will be removing the most popular of these brands from government store shelves.”
The tariffs will go into effect on Tuesday, setting a showdown in North America that could potentially sabotage economic growth. A new analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale laid out the possible damage to the US economy, saying the average US household would lose the equivalent of $1,170 in income from the taxes. Economic growth would slow and inflation would worsen — and the situation could be even worse if the countries retaliate.
A senior US administration official, insisting on anonymity to brief reporters, said the lower rate on energy reflected a desire to minimize any disruptive increases on the price of gasoline or utilities. That’s a sign White House officials understand the gamble they’re taking on inflation. Price spikes under former President Biden led to voter frustration that helped to return Trump to the White House last year.
The order signed by Trump contained no mechanism for granting exceptions, the official said, a possible blow to homebuilders who rely on Canadian lumber as well as farmers, automakers and other industries.
The Trump administration put the tariffs in place to force the three countries to stop the spread and manufacturing of fentanyl, in addition to pressuring Canada and Mexico to limit any illegal immigration into the United States.
The official did not provide specific benchmarks that could be met to lift the new tariffs, saying only that the best measure would be fewer Americans dying from fentanyl addiction.
The order would also allow for tariffs on Canadian imports of less than $800. Imports below that sum are currently able to cross into the United States without customs and duties.
“It doesn’t make much economic sense,’’ said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former US trade official. “Historically, most of our tariffs on raw materials have been low because we want to get cheaper materials so our manufacturers will be competitive … Now, what’s he talking about? He’s talking about tariffs on raw materials. I don’t get the economics of it.’’
The Republican president is making a major political bet that his actions will not significantly worsen inflation, cause financial aftershocks that could destabilize the worldwide economy or provoke a voter backlash. AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate in last year’s election, found that the US was split on support for tariffs.
With the tariffs, Trump is honoring promises that are at the core of his economic and national security philosophy. But the announcement showed his seriousness around the issue as some Trump allies had played down the threat of higher import taxes as mere negotiating tactics.
The president is preparing more import taxes in a sign that tariffs will be an ongoing part of his second term. On Friday, he mentioned imported computer chips, steel, oil and natural gas, as well as against copper, pharmaceutical drugs and imports from the European Union — moves that could essentially pit the US against much of the global economy.
It is unclear how the tariffs could affect the business investments that Trump said would happen because of his plans to cut corporate tax rates and remove regulations. Tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers and businesses by making it more expensive to bring in foreign goods.
Many voters turned to Trump in the November election on the belief that he could better handle the inflation that spiked under Biden. But inflation expectations are creeping upward in the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment as respondents expect prices to rise by 3.3%. That would be higher than the actual 2.9% annual inflation rate in December’s consumer price index.
Trump has said that the government should raise more of its revenues from tariffs, as it did before the income tax became part of the Constitution in 1913. He claims, despite economic evidence to the contrary, that the U.S. was at its wealthiest in the 1890s under President William McKinley.
“We were the richest country in the world,” Trump said Friday. “We were a tariff country.”
Trudeau has told Canadians that they could be facing difficult times ahead, but that Ottawa was prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs if needed and that the U.S. penalties would be self-sabotaging.
Trudeau said Canada is addressing Trump’s calls on border security by implementing a CDN$1.3 billion (US$900 million) border plan that includes helicopters, new canine teams and imaging tools.
Trump still has to get a budget, tax cuts and an increase to the government’s legal borrowing authority through Congress. The outcome of his tariff plans could strengthen his hand or weaken it.
Democrats were quick to say that any inflation going forward was the result of Trump, who is about to start his third week back as president.
“You’re worried about grocery prices. Don’s raising prices with his tariffs,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York posted on X. “You’re worried about tomato prices. Wait till Trump’s Mexico tariffs raise your tomato prices. … You’re worried about car prices. Wait till Trump’s Canada tariffs raise your car prices,” he wrote in a series of posts.
Associated Press writers Christopher Sherman in Mexico City and Paul Wiseman in Washington contributed to this report.
