清洁能源专家警告称，特朗普的新关税可能会对绿色就业产生“寒蝉效应”

【中美创新时报2024 年 12 月 28 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）特朗普政府的关税和财政激励措施的变化可能会给可再生能源就业带来麻烦。但业内人士表示，并非一切都失去了。《波士顿环球报》记者艾维·斯科特对此作了下述报道。

现已停用的布雷顿角发电站看起来像是另一个时代的遗迹，一堆老旧的工业仓库，周围环绕着路面开裂、铁丝网生锈的停车场。

然而，随着 SouthCoast Wind 的海上风电项目准备在附近海岸登陆，而普睿司曼制造公司准备启动一个新的海底电缆设施，该设施将把电力从该州南部海岸的新风电场输送到马萨诸塞州，马萨诸塞州能源的未来即将迈出下一步。

也就是说，除非当选总统唐纳德·特朗普兑现其限制可再生能源的威胁，并征收新的关税，这可能会大幅推高该项目所需的进口零部件的成本。如果实施，高税收加上其他经济政策可能会威胁到该企业——以及数百个对马萨诸塞州实现气候目标至关重要的新工作岗位。

绿色能源行业以前经历过这种情况，特朗普在他的第一届政府以及奥巴马总统和拜登总统都对来自中国的太阳能电池板征收关税。如果关税的目标是促进国内生产并惩罚出口国，那么早期的征税就失败了，因为中国企业只是将生产转移到东南亚的非关税国家。现在，美国主要从柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国和越南进口太阳能电池板。

康奈尔大学、耶鲁大学、纽约大学和杜克大学经济学家的一项研究发现，关税最终并没有大幅增加美国的制造业，但对安装行业产生了重大的负面影响，该行业占马萨诸塞州清洁能源就业岗位的近 30%。

哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院能源与经济发展教授罗伯特·斯塔文斯表示，拜登执政期间对太阳能电池板征收关税导致“制造业劳动力略有增加，但安装业劳动力大幅减少”。

特朗普威胁要停止海上风电，并直接限制对可再生能源生产的支持。上个月，他还承诺对墨西哥和加拿大进口产品征收 25% 的关税，并对中国商品征收额外的 10% 的进口税。如果实施，每个行业的进口商品都可能上涨，包括为该州从化石燃料转型提供动力的设备，从太阳能电池板到电池再到输电电缆。

“对于马萨诸塞州来说，这无疑会很糟糕，”斯塔文斯说。

关键在于：专家们一致认为，减缓可再生能源的扩张也可能推高马萨诸塞州的电价，而马萨诸塞州的电价已经是全国最高的。

2022 年，拜登参观了布雷顿角的废弃工厂，承诺为新英格兰居民“打造一个不同的未来，一个拥有清洁能源和高薪工作的未来”。

但在特朗普的领导下，进口设备的成本可能会飙升，对清洁能源行业造成“相当大的打击”，气候非营利组织阿卡迪亚中心的州项目实施主任凯尔·默里说——以及该州到 2030 年增加 34,000 个清洁能源就业岗位的目标。

“如果你推高价格……能源将无法幸免，”默里说。 “州政府在激励措施和税收减免方面可以做很多事情，但我们必须发挥创造性思维，迅速采取行动，尽量减轻任何潜在危害。”

截至 2022 年，全州近 44,000 人从事清洁能源建设、安装和维护工作，其中可再生能源领域有 12,000 多人。这些工作范围从 1,800 多人的太阳能电池板安装工到近 3,500 名电工，他们的工作重点是可再生能源项目，例如为海上风电设置陆上输电线路。

“如果特朗普真的按照他说的做……那将会带来伤害。在可预见的未来，这将导致数百甚至数千个工作岗位流失，”IBEW 地方工会 223 的电工兼业务代理 Jeff Plaisted 说道，他曾参与 Vineyard Wind 1 的陆上部分工作。

Plaisted 表示，工会成员的下一个项目是 Brayton Point 的 SouthCoast Wind——如果最终的联邦许可获得批准的话。

“我们指望着这项工作，”他说。“六到八个月后，我们就可以实现完全充分就业，我们的 100% 成员都可以工作……或者不工作。这基本上就是我们现在的情况。”

电缆制造商普睿司曼拒绝就特朗普承诺的关税对经济的影响发表评论。

不过，一些可再生能源倡导者和行业专业人士乐观地认为，对当地就业的影响将微乎其微。

太阳能技术公司 Nextracker 的创始人 Daniel Shugar 表示，关税是“我们知道的魔鬼”。舒加尔表示，该国现有的太阳能电池板库存（包括美国制造的和从印度等国家进口的）应该可以为潜在客户提供一些“缓冲”，以应对价格上涨。

罗德岛气候就业联盟负责人、罗德岛 AFL-CIO 主席帕特里克·克劳利指出，在拜登政府的领导下，该行业已经经受住了中国太阳能电池板的高关税。

“尽管如此，过去几年，工业和住宅层面的太阳能电池板部署都出现了大幅增长，”他说，并指出 2023 年美国将建造 32 千兆瓦的工业规模太阳能，是上一年的两倍多。“未来几年可能会比现在困难得多……但我们处于有利地位”，可以保持就业和安装的势头，他说。

至于风能，研究清洁能源转型的哈佛大学政府教授斯蒂芬·安索拉贝赫尔 (Stephen Ansolabehere) 表示，尽管马萨诸塞州扩大海上风电的能力在未来十年可能会放缓，但他预计 SouthCoast Wind 等项目将获准继续进行，这些项目即将完成或已获准。这些工作对于取代化石燃料行业的工作至关重要，因为该州正努力实现其气候目标。

“我们位于新英格兰的一个地区，这里没有建造新的发电厂——我们正在关闭它们，”普莱斯特德说。“海上风电、太阳能、电池储能，这些都是当地的工作，将维持我们当地的经济。”

与此同时，在地热供暖和制冷行业，行业专业人士认为自己相当不受关税影响。

“地热的核心在俄克拉荷马州，生产地热热泵的主要工厂在”印第安纳州、佛罗里达州和南达科他州，专注于地热的马萨诸塞州清洁能源非营利组织 HEET 的首席执行官泽伊内布·马加维 (Zeyneb Magavi) 说。 “目前，我还没有发现任何妨碍地热能对政治环境异常适应的因素。”

公共事业部 2022 年的一项分析预测，到 2050 年，该州约四分之一的建筑行业将使用地热网络进行供暖和制冷。

然而，即使制造业中心位于红州，美国工厂仍继续依赖原材料进口，而全面征收关税可能会导致原材料成本上升。

然而，地热行业确实有一张王牌可以与特朗普政府对战：在马萨诸塞州，这个新兴行业正在与天然气公司合作——特朗普曾发誓要保护这些公司——建设为地热热泵提供动力的地下基础设施。

Magavi 指出，地热供暖和制冷甚至可能成为制造业潜在的本地就业助推器，因为“我们确实制造自己的钻头，我们确实制造自己的地热热泵，而且这个行业规模足够小，需要发展 [足够]，因此建设更多的本地制造业将是件好事。”

许多从事清洁能源行业的人都抱有谨慎乐观的态度。

清洁能源贸易协会 Advanced Energy United 的董事总经理 Harry Godfrey 表示，由于清洁能源转型正在顺利进行，任何行政命令都无法阻止自由市场的发展。

“但这些技术、这些行业都无法抵御特朗普的攻击，”他补充道。“让我们明确这一点。”

题图：老布雷顿角发电站的景色，该发电站计划成为新海上风电项目的制造和发电基地。Suzanne Kreiter/Globe 员工

附原英文报道：

Clean energy experts warn new Trump tariffs could produce ‘chilling effect’ on green jobs

Shifts in tariffs and financial incentives under the Trump administration could spell trouble for renewable energy jobs. But industry professionals say not all is lost.

By Ivy Scott Globe Staff,Updated December 27, 2024

A view of the old Brayton Point Power Station that is slated to become the site of manufacturing and electricity generation for a new offshore wind project.Suzanne Kreiter/Globe Staff

SOMERSET — The now-defunct Brayton Point power station looks like a relic from another time, a collection of aging industrial warehouses ringed by parking lots with cracked pavement and rusty chain-link fences.

Yet here is where the future of energy in Massachusetts is poised to take its next big step, as SouthCoast Wind’s offshore wind project gears up to make landfall on nearby shores, and the Prysmian manufacturing company prepares to launch a new facility for the undersea power cables that will pipe in electricity from the new wind farm off the state’s southern coast.

That is, unless President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threats to curb renewable energy and impose new tariffs that could sharply drive up costs for the imported components needed for the project. If implemented, high taxes, coupled with other economic policies, could threaten the enterprise — and with it, hundreds of new jobs critical to Massachusetts’ efforts to meet its climate goals.

The green energy industry has been through this before, with tariffs by Trump in his first administration, as well as by Presidents Obama and Biden, on solar panels from China. If the goal of tariffs is to boost domestic production and punish exporting nations, those earlier levies failed, as Chinese companies simply shifted production to nontariff countries in Southeast Asia. Now the United States imports its solar panels mainly from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

A study by Cornell, Yale, NYU, and Duke economists found the tariffs did not end up increasing manufacturing in the United States much, but they did have a significant — and negative — effect on the installation sector, which accounts for nearly 30 percent of Massachusetts’ clean energy jobs.

Tariffs on solar panels under Biden led to “a small increase in labor in manufacturing, but you had a huge decrease in labor in installation,” said Robert Stavins, a energy and economic development professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Trump has threatened to pull the plug on offshore wind and directly restrict support for renewable energy production. Last month, he also pledged to slap a 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports and an additional 10 percent import tax on Chinese goods. If implemented, imported goods in every sector could go up, including the equipment that powers the state’s transition off fossil fuels, from solar panels to batteries to transmission cables.

“For Massachusetts, it’s going to be unambiguously bad,” Stavins said.

And here’s the kicker: Experts agree that slowing the expansion of renewable energy will also likely drive up electricity rates across the board in Massachusetts, which already has among the highest such costs in the nation.

In 2022, Biden visited the abandoned plant in Brayton Point, promising “to build a different future, one with clean energy, good-paying jobs” for New England residents.

But under Trump, the costs of imported equipment could spike, dealing a “fairly significant hit” to the clean energy industry, said Kyle Murray, director of state program implementation at the climate nonprofit Acadia Center — and to the state’s goal of adding 34,000 clean energy jobs to the workforce by 2030.

“If you’re driving up prices … energy would not be spared,” Murray said. “There’s a lot of things the state can do regarding incentives and tax breaks, but we’re gonna have to think creatively and work quickly to try and mitigate any potential harms.”

As of 2022, nearly 44,000 people were employed in clean energy construction, installation, and maintenance across the state, including more than 12,000 in renewable energy. Those jobs range from solar panel installers, who number more than 1,800, to the nearly 3,500 electricians whose work is focused on renewable energy projects like setting up the on-land transmission lines for offshore wind.

“If Trump does what he said he was going to do … it’s going to hurt. It’s going to crush hundreds, if not thousands, of jobs for the foreseeable future,” said Jeff Plaisted, electrician and business agent for IBEW Local Union 223 who worked on the onshore component of Vineyard Wind 1.

Plaisted said the next project slated for the union’s members is SouthCoast Wind at Brayton Point — if the final federal permits are approved.

“We’re counting on that work,” he said. “In six to eight months, we could have absolutely full employment with 100 percent of our membership working … or not. That’s basically where we’re at.”

Prysmian, the cable manufacturer, declined to comment on the economic impact of promised Trump tariffs.

Still, some renewable energy advocates and industry professionals are optimistic the impact on local jobs will be minimal.

Tariffs are “a devil we know,” said Daniel Shugar, founder of solar tech company Nextracker. Shugar said the country’s existing inventory of panels, both those made in the United States and imported from countries such as India, should provide some “buffer” against rising prices for prospective customers.

Patrick Crowley, head of the Rhode Island Climate Jobs Coalition and Rhode Island’s AFL-CIO president, noted the industry has already weathered high tariffs on Chinese solar panels under the Biden administration.

“Despite that, the last couple of years have seen tremendous increases in the deployment of solar panels at both the industrial and the residential level,” he said, pointing to the 32 gigawatts of industrial-scale solar built in the United States in 2023, more than double the previous year. “It might be a lot more difficult over the next couple of years than it has been … but we’re well positioned” to keep the momentum with jobs and installations going, he said.

As for wind energy, Harvard government professor Stephen Ansolabehere, who researches the clean energy transition, said that while Massachusetts’ ability to scale up offshore wind will likely be slowed in the coming decade, he expects projects such as SouthCoast Wind — which are close to being finalized or already permitted — will be allowed to continue. Those jobs are crucial to replacing work in the fossil fuel industry as the state tries to meet its climate goals.

“We are in an area of New England that isn’t building new power plants — we’re shutting them down,” Plaisted said. “Offshore wind, solar, battery storage, these are all local jobs that are going to keep our local economy going.”

In the geothermal heating and cooling industry, meanwhile, industry professionals see themselves as fairly insulated from tariffs.

“The heart of geothermal is in Oklahoma, the major factories that produce the geothermal heat pumps are in” Indiana, Florida, and South Dakota, said Zeyneb Magavi, chief executive of HEET, a Massachusetts clean energy nonprofit that focuses on geothermal. “At the moment, I have not found something that gets in the way of geothermal being unusually resilient to a political environment.”

A Department of Public Utilities analysis from 2022 projects that about one-quarter of the state’s building sector will use geothermal networks for heating and cooling by 2050.

Yet, even with manufacturing hubs in red states, US factories continue to rely on imports of raw materials, which could rise in cost with across-the-board tariffs.

The geothermal industry does, however, have an ace up its sleeve to play with the Trump administration: In Massachusetts, the nascent industry is working with natural gas companies — which Trump has vowed to protect — to build the underground infrastructure that powers geothermal heat pumps.

Geothermal heating and cooling could even be a potential local job booster for manufacturing, Magavi noted, since “we do make our own drills and we do make our own geothermal heat pumps, and it is an industry that is small enough and needs to grow [enough] that building more local manufacturing would be great.”

Many who work in clean energy share a cautious sense of optimism.

Because the clean energy transition is well underway, no executive order will be able to stop the free market in its tracks, said Harry Godfrey, a managing director at the clean energy trade association Advanced Energy United.

“But none of these technologies, none of these industries, are Trump-proof,” he added. “Let’s be clear about that.”