特朗普的回归会破坏美国海上风电繁荣吗？
【中美创新时报2024 年 12 月 26 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）特朗普最近对风力涡轮机的反感更加直言不讳，他在 5 月份声称“它们摧毁了一切，它们太可怕了，是最昂贵的能源。”他接受了关于风如何影响鲸鱼、鸟类和环境的反风说法，并在上任第一天发誓要发布行政命令，停止海上风电项目。而马萨诸塞州的气候目标依赖于更多海上风电项目获得批准和建设。《波士顿环球报》记者萨布丽娜·尚克曼对此作了下述报道。
2019 年夏天，马萨诸塞州准备迎接一个重要时刻。联邦政府随时都会为必将改变游戏规则的项目颁发最终环境许可证：美国第一个工业海上风电项目葡萄园风电。
多年来，势头一直在增强，这就是为什么州长查理·贝克将他的新任能源和环境部长凯蒂·西奥哈里德斯拉到一边宣布一些坏消息时令人惊讶的原因。
特朗普政府没有像预期的那样发放许可证，而是踩下了刹车，启动了一项广泛的研究，以研究计划中的海上风电项目的潜在累积影响。“我们没想到会这样，”西奥哈里德斯回忆起那一天时说。“在那之前，一切看起来都很顺利。”
清洁贸易集团 Advanced Energy United 的总法律顾问杰里米·麦克迪亚米德 (Jeremy McDiarmid) 表示，这是“阻碍和拖延”战略的开始，该战略后来定义了特朗普政府对海上风电的态度。
现在，清洁能源行业的人们正准备迎接特朗普第二届政府更为公开的努力，以减缓或停止风电。
上一次，中断似乎是合理的；一些人认为累积影响研究是负责任的一步。只是，石油和天然气行业并没有这样做。忧思科学家联盟高级能源分析师约翰·罗杰斯 (John Rogers) 表示：“很明显，他们这样做只是为了让这列海上风电列车脱轨。”
似乎正在实施一种新的双重标准——这种标准将阻碍清洁能源的发展，而马萨诸塞州和其他州正承诺削减温室气体排放以应对气候危机，严重依赖海上风电。
拜登总统于 2021 年上任后，许可证发放又回到了正轨，尽管项目进展缓慢。例如，Vineyard Wind 最初计划于 2023 年完工；相反，它去年才开始建设，并在今年夏天因其中一台涡轮机的叶片断裂而中断了数月。
现在，业界预计特朗普可能带来的威胁包括新的关税或税收优惠的缩减，这可能会将成本推高到不可持续的水平，甚至导致许可证或新租约停止发放。
“这种监管不确定性增加了开发成本，增加了融资成本，可能减少了愿意承担这种风险的投资者数量，”麦克迪亚米德说。“海上风电开发商直到电力流动起来才开始赚钱。”
风险很高：风力发电场为该州实现清洁能源目标提供了巨大的推动力。例如，当 Vineyard Wind 1 完全上线时，它将为 40 多万户家庭提供足够的电力，并满足该州 5.5% 的年度电力需求。另一个名为 New England Wind 1 的项目将产生类似的效果。
开发商投入数十亿美元来实现海上风电项目，并最终在将电力出售给公用事业公司时获得回报。由于海上风电项目完工后的运营成本低于化石燃料，支持者表示风电最终应该会降低纳税人的成本。
现在和八年前特朗普刚上任时有一些关键的区别：该行业更加发达，沿海地区有多个项目，正在建设、规划或处于许可的不同阶段。
虽然大部分情况发生在沿海蓝州，但该行业也给红州带来了经济繁荣。例如，路易斯安那州是供应链的关键部分，供应建设风力发电场所需的设备和船只。共和党控制的州的这些工作和合同可能会使彻底阻止风力发电的进展变得更加困难。
尽管如此，特朗普最近对风力涡轮机的反感更加直言不讳，他在 5 月份声称“它们摧毁了一切，它们太可怕了，是最昂贵的能源。”他接受了关于风如何影响鲸鱼、鸟类和环境的反风说法，并在上任第一天发誓要发布行政命令，停止海上风电项目。
特朗普的过渡团队没有回应置评请求。
还有其他威胁。例如，葡萄园风力涡轮机的叶片是在加拿大制造的，特朗普威胁要对加拿大征收 25% 的关税。海上风电供应链中较小的部分也可能受到对中国和墨西哥征收关税的影响，从而增加大量成本。
此外，拜登政府的《通胀削减法案》中包含的税收抵免——特朗普发誓要取消该法案——也帮助支持了海上风电供应制造商。例如，JSW Steel 正在俄亥俄州明戈交界处扩建一家工厂，生产海上风电塔钢板，并获得了 4350 万美元的联邦税收抵免。
制造商依赖这些激励措施，华盛顿需要保持这些激励措施“以确保该行业蓬勃发展”，海上风电行业公司贸易集团 Oceantic Network 的高级副总裁 Stephanie Francoeur 表示。
虽然一些措施（即关税）可以通过总统行政命令实施，但目前尚不清楚特朗普对海上风电的其他威胁是否也能轻易实现。
行业专家表示，特朗普可能没有权力撤销已经颁发的联邦许可证。如果是这样，那么马萨诸塞州海岸线上的四个获准项目——葡萄园风电 1 号、革命风电、新英格兰风电 1 号和 2 号——应该是安全的。其中，葡萄园风电和革命风电已经在建设中。新英格兰风电 1 号项目则落后很多，最近才通过州采购程序被选中，而新英格兰风电 2 号项目尚未被选中，但可以进行未来的采购。
新英格兰计划的其他海上风电项目的命运尚不明朗。SouthCoast Wind 和 Vineyard Wind 2 号项目有望在未来两年内获得联邦许可。另一个名为 Starboard Wind 的项目也尚未获得所有联邦许可。
“我认为这些项目面临的风险最大，因为这为与联邦政府的接触创造了最大的自由度和领域，”新英格兰发电协会主席 Dan Dolan 表示。
这三个项目加起来将生产总计 3.67 千兆瓦的清洁能源，足以为大约 180 万户家庭供电。马萨诸塞州已经与 SouthCoast Wind 和 Vineyard Wind 2 号项目签订了 1.9 千兆瓦的合同，罗德岛州也与 SouthCoast Wind 签订了少量合同。
在马萨诸塞州，每个项目都对实现该州到 2050 年实现净零碳排放的法定目标起着不可或缺的作用。
绿色能源消费者联盟执行董事 Larry Chretien 表示，虽然海上风电并不是该州计划将化石燃料转换为电力的唯一方式，但它“发挥了最大的作用”。
“坦率地说，如果没有海上风电，马萨诸塞州很难实现净零排放，”前能源部长 Theoharides 表示，他在离任后曾在海上风电行业工作了一年。
该行业的任何延误都来得不是时候。随着热泵和电动汽车的采用，新英格兰对电力的需求一直在上升。与此同时，化石燃料发电厂正在关闭。“在需求不断增长的环境下，不进行替代就削减产能是不可持续的，”Dolan 说。
尽管如此，即使该行业在特朗普政府未来四年任期内遭遇重大延误，“也绝不会抹杀海上风电行业，”麦克迪亚米德表示。“我认为该行业已经非常成熟，不会出现这种情况。”
题图：UHL Felicity 号船载着葡萄园风电开发项目的大量部件，于 2023 年 5 月 24 日抵达新贝德福德码头。Rodrique Ngowi/美联社
附原英文报道：
Could Trump’s return derail the US offshore wind boom?
Massachusetts climate goals bank on more offshore wind projects getting approved and built.
By Sabrina Shankman Globe Staff,Updated December 18, 2024
The ship UHL Felicity, carrying massive parts for the Vineyard Wind development, arrived to dock on May 24, 2023, in New Bedford.Rodrique Ngowi/Associated Press
In the summer of 2019, Massachusetts was poised for a big moment. Any day, the federal government would be issuing a final environmental permit for what was sure to be a game changer: the first industrial offshore wind project in the United States, Vineyard Wind.
Momentum had been building for years, which was why it was surprising when Governor Charlie Baker pulled his new energy and environment secretary, Katie Theoharides, aside to deliver some bad news.
Instead of issuing the permit as expected, the Trump administration was hitting the brakes to launch a broad study of the potential cumulative impacts of planned offshore wind projects. “We weren’t expecting it,” Theoharides said, remembering the day. “Everything had looked really smooth up until that point.”
It was the beginning of a “hinder and delay” strategy that came to define the Trump administration’s approach to offshore wind, said Jeremy McDiarmid, general counsel at the clean trade group Advanced Energy United.
Now, people in the clean energy industry are bracing for a much more overt effort from the second Trump administration to slow or stop wind power.
Last go-around, the interruption seemed plausible; a cumulative impact study could be justified by some as a responsible step. Except, that’s not been required of the oil and gas industry. “It seemed pretty clear that they were doing it just to derail this offshore wind train,” said John Rogers, senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
It appeared a new double standard was being applied — one that would set back clean energy just as Massachusetts and other states were committing to slashing their greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the climate crisis, relying heavily on offshore wind.
After President Biden took office in 2021, permits got back on track, though projects were well behind. Vineyard Wind, for example, was initially scheduled to be completed in 2023; instead, it only began construction last year and was interrupted for months after a blade on one of the turbines broke this summer.
Now, among the potential threats the industry is anticipating from Trump are new tariffs or shrinking tax incentives that could drive up the costs to unsustainable levels, or even a halt in permits or new leases.
“This regulatory uncertainty increases the cost of development, it increases financing costs, it probably reduces the number of investors that are interested in accepting this risk,” said McDiarmid. “The offshore wind developers don’t start to earn money until the electrons flow.”
The stakes are high: Wind farms provide a huge boost to the state reaching its clean energy goals. When Vineyard Wind 1 is fully online, for instance, it will provide enough electricity for more than 400,000 homes and meet 5.5 percent of the state’s annual electricity demand. Another project, known as New England Wind 1, would have a similar effect.
Developers lay out billions of dollars to bring an offshore wind project to fruition, and are ultimately paid back when they sell the electricity to utilities. Because offshore wind projects have lower operating costs relative to fossil fuels when completed, supporters say wind should eventually bring costs down for ratepayers.
There are some key differences between now and eight years ago, when Trump first entered office: The industry is far more developed, with multiple projects up and down the coast, projects being built, planned, or in various stages of permitting.
While much of this is happening in coastal blue states, the industry is bringing an economic boom to red states too. Louisiana, for example, is a pivotal part of the supply chain, supplying the equipment and vessels used in building wind farms. Those jobs and contracts in Republican-held states might make it tougher to stop progress entirely.
Nonetheless, Trump these days is more vocal in his antipathy to wind turbines, claiming in May that “they destroy everything, they’re horrible, the most expensive energy there is.” He has embraced discredited antiwind claims about how wind affects whales, birds, and the environment, and vowed on his first day in office to issue an executive order halting offshore wind projects.
Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request for comment.
There are other threats, too. Blades for the Vineyard Wind turbines, for instance, are manufactured in Canada, which Trump has threatened with a 25 percent tariff. Smaller parts of the offshore wind supply chain could also be affected by tariffs on China and Mexico, adding significant costs.
In addition, tax credits included in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act — which Trump has vowed to roll back — have helped support offshore wind supply manufacturers. JSW Steel, for instance, is expanding a plant in Mingo Junction, Ohio, to produce steel slabs for offshore wind pole towers, backed by $43.5 million in federal tax credits.
Manufacturers rely on those incentives, and Washington needs to keep them in place “to ensure this industry thrives,” said Stephanie Francoeur, senior vice president at Oceantic Network, a trade group for companies in the offshore wind business.
Though some steps — namely tariffs — can be done via presidential executive order, it’s not clear if Trump’s other threats to offshore wind can be as easily realized.
Industry experts say Trump may not have the authority to revoke federal permits that are already issued. If so, then four permitted projects off the Massachusetts coastline — Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, and New England Wind 1 and 2 — should be safe. Of those, Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind are already under construction. New England Wind 1 is further behind, having only recently been selected via a state procurement process, and New England Wind 2 has not been selected, but is available for future procurements.
The fate of other offshore wind projects planned for New England is less clear. SouthCoast Wind and Vineyard Wind 2 are on track for federal permits over the next two years. Another project, called Starboard Wind, also has not received all its federal permits.
“These are the projects that I think face the biggest risks, because that creates the most latitude and areas for engagement with the federal government,” said Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association.
Together, those three would produce a total of 3.67 gigawatts of clean energy, enough power for an estimated 1.8 million homes. Massachusetts has already contracted for 1.9 gigawatts from SouthCoast Wind and Vineyard Wind 2, and Rhode Island has contracted a small amount from SouthCoast Wind.
In Massachusetts, each project has an integral role in getting the state to its legally mandated target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
While offshore wind isn’t the only way the state plans to convert from fossil fuels for electricity, it “moves the needle the most,” said Larry Chretien, executive director of the Green Energy Consumers Alliance.
“Frankly, it’s very hard to get Massachusetts to net zero without offshore wind,” said Theoharides, the former energy secretary who worked for the offshore wind industry for a year after leaving office.
Any delays to the industry are coming at a particularly bad time, too. Demand for electricity in New England has been rising with the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles. At the same time, fossil fuel power plants are shutting down. “It’s simply not sustainable to take capacity off without replacement in a rising demand environment,” Dolan said.
Still, even if the industry hits major delays during the next four years of the Trump administration, “it’s not going to erase the offshore wind industry by any means,” said McDiarmid. “I think the industry is way too mature for that.”
