【中美创新时报2024 年 11 月16 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）当选总统唐纳德·J·特朗普在总统竞选期间做出了许多个人理财承诺。他将尝试并能够实现多少？以下是这位当选总统可能对您的税收、学生贷款、社会保障等采取的措施。《纽约时报》记者Ron Lieber 和 Tara Siegel Bernard对此作了下述报道。
在唐纳德·J·特朗普担任总统的第一任期内，大多数人的所得税率下降，但这些减税措施只持续到 2025 年底。
当选总统唐纳德·J·特朗普在总统竞选期间做出了许多个人理财承诺。他将尝试并能够实现多少？
答案将在一定程度上取决于众议院和参议院竞选的结果。尽管共和党占了上风，但两院的票数几乎是 50-50，因此只需少数民选官员就能强加他们的意愿，并导致某些与特朗普竞选议程完全不同的政策。
这也取决于法院。去年，最高法院驳回了拜登总统取消某些联邦学生贷款的企图，裁定国会没有提供足够明确的权力采取如此重大的行动。法院可能会——也可能不会——以同样的方式限制特朗普的一些行动。
然后是特朗普提高关税的计划。如果不知道特朗普在实施更多关税方面会取得多大成功——以及消费者价格会因此上涨多少，就很难估计他的第二任期内你的财务状况是否会改善。市场也可能是一种刹车，这取决于投资者对他的计划的反应。
候选人说了很多话，大部分都是认真的，很多话都说到做到，但成功实现了他们目标的一小部分。
特朗普先生与大多数政客不同，但我们所能依靠的只是他曾说过如果获胜他会尝试做的事情。接下来就是他的记录。
税收
在特朗普先生的第一任期内，国会通过了《减税与就业法案》，该法案带来了许多重大变化。大多数人的联邦所得税率下降，标准扣除额几乎翻了一番，儿童税收抵免增加，并在许多情况下惠及更多人。
但该法案中的许多变化只持续到 2025 年底。国会需要采取行动延长这些变化，一旦采取行动，它可能会做出额外的改变。
特朗普先生的竞选网站有共和党政纲的链接，该政纲称，该党计划将标准扣除额和儿童税收抵免的变化永久化，并“寻求额外的减税”。
该政纲还呼吁取消对餐馆和酒店工作人员的小费征税。在竞选期间，特朗普还提出了免除加班费和社会保障福利所得税的可能性——甚至根本不征收所得税。
2017 年的法律规定，如果人们逐项列出扣除额，他们在联邦纳税申报单上可以扣除的某些州和地方税的上限为 10,000 美元。纽约、加利福尼亚和新泽西等高税率州的许多居民受到了沉重打击。
尽管特朗普签署了这项所谓的 SALT 条款，但他在 9 月表示有意扭转这一变化。
学生贷款
预计特朗普政府将取消拜登广泛的学生债务减免政策。
当选总统还誓言要彻底关闭教育部，但这是一个不太可能的提议，因为立法者必须投票解散该机构，我们的同事 Dana Goldstein 报道。
但该机构内部的全面变革并不令人意外。今年，一些共和党领导的州对拜登的新学生贷款还款计划提出了质疑，该计划产生的贷款还款额低于之前的计划。这项以收入为导向的还款计划被称为 SAVE，已被法院冻结，这使其 800 万参保者陷入财务困境，直到法律问题得到解决。
特朗普似乎不太可能为拜登的 SAVE 计划辩护，尽管他在 2020 年预算中确实提出了一项以收入为导向的还款计划。但该计划对借款人来说成本更高——它将每月还款额限制在收入的 12.5%，高于拜登 SAVE 计划的 5%。在同一份预算中，特朗普提议关闭公共服务贷款减免计划，不再向新参保者提供贷款；该计划在 120 次合格还款后免除政府和非营利组织员工的学生债务。
特朗普担任总统期间，取消或削弱了奥巴马政府制定的许多以借款人为中心的举措，包括一项取消被学校欺骗的学生教育债务的计划，以及另一项要求学校对毕业生收入不足以偿还学生贷款负责的计划。
住房
共和党纲领提议开放一些联邦土地用于住宅建设。图片来源：Gene J. Puskar/美联社
特朗普在其竞选网站上链接的共和党纲领承诺“通过税收优惠和支持首次购房者来促进房屋所有权”，但没有提供细节。
总统不会决定抵押贷款利率，贷款成本在任何四年期间都可能有很大差异。标准 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款的利率本周达到 6.79%，为 7 月以来的最高水平。抵押贷款利率通常反映 10 年期国债收益率，周三该数字创下两年多来的最大单日涨幅。该政纲还提到开放“有限部分的联邦土地”用于建造房屋。根据特朗普的竞选网站，他计划提议在全国范围内征集参赛者，帮助在该土地上开发多达 10 个新城市——大约相当于哥伦比亚特区的面积。
健康保险
在担任总统期间，特朗普试图废除《平价医疗法案》，但未能成功，尽管他采取了一些削弱该法案的措施，例如，签署了一项法律，取消了个人强制保险，该强制保险要求大多数人保持保险覆盖，否则将面临税收处罚。
他还允许扩大短期计划，这些计划不符合《平价医疗法案》的标准——这些计划更便宜，但通常提供更薄弱的保险范围，可能会因为预先存在的疾病（包括怀孕）而被完全拒绝。
如果他的政府对《平价医疗法案》不采取行动，美国人仍然可能会看到重大变化：通过奥巴马医改市场购买保险的人的医疗保险价格降低的税收补贴可能很快就会消失。
补贴于 2021 年作为一项临时措施获得通过，并于 2022 年根据《通货膨胀削减法案》延长。补贴计划于 2025 年底到期，特朗普竞选团队和许多有影响力的共和党人表示不支持延长补贴。这意味着 2000 万受益者最终可能要多支付数百或数千美元，而收入 10 万美元或以上的个人将无法获得联邦援助。
据国会预算办公室估计，如果补贴减少、价格上涨，估计有 340 万人将失去保险。
特朗普还表示，他将推动保险公司承保体外受精。
社会保障
特朗普竞选团队表示，他不会从社会保障中削减“一分钱”。但据无党派政策组织负责任联邦预算委员会称，迄今为止，他的政策提案将使该计划的基础更加不稳，并“大大恶化”该计划的财务状况。
社会保障长期以来一直面临资金问题，这在很大程度上是由于人口结构的变化。越来越多的婴儿潮一代领取养老金，而这些退休人员的寿命也更长。与此同时，出生率下降导致缴纳工资税的工人减少，而工资税是社会保障资金的主要来源。
预计支付退休人员福利的信托基金将在 2033 年耗尽。届时，税收收入将足以支付 79% 的预定福利——如果不采取任何措施，所有受益人的支票将缩水 21%。
解决这个问题有两种方法：提高税收或削减福利，或两者结合，这两种方法都需要国会批准。
但特朗普先生提议削减各种有助于支付该计划的税收，包括取消对加班费和小费的征税，这将减少工资税。他还希望取消对社会保障福利的征税——此举将为退休人员的口袋带来更多钱，但会减少另一个收入来源。
负责任联邦预算委员会表示，特朗普计划对进口产品征收高额关税，这可能会提高价格，这意味着福利支出也可能增加，因为他们会获得生活成本调整。驱逐非法移民是特朗普的另一项承诺，这将减少为该计划缴费的移民工人数量。该委员会表示，这些政策加在一起将加速信托基金的破产，并导致福利进一步削减。
过去，特朗普曾表示，他愿意削减社会保障等社会保险计划，但后来又收回了这些言论。
医疗保险
特朗普表示，他不会削减医疗保险，并誓言要加强该计划——这与之前的声明相反——但没有提供太多细节。他说他不想提高领取资格的年龄，并支持为家庭护理福利提供资金。
与社会保障一样，联邦医疗保险也面临资金短缺，预计从 2036 年开始将无法支付所有医院账单。健康政策研究组织 KFF 表示，特朗普的减税措施加速了用于支付医院、专业护理机构、家庭保健和临终关怀费用的信托基金的枯竭。
目前还不清楚《通货膨胀削减法案》中一些最具争议的条款会发生什么，该法案允许联邦医疗保险直接与制药公司协商部分药品价格。这可能会降低消费者价格并节省该计划的资金。（该法案还将受益人的每月胰岛素费用限制在 35 美元，并将处方药的自付费用限制在 2,000 美元。）该法案还要求制药公司在涨价速度超过通货膨胀率时向联邦医疗保险支付费用。
特朗普可能会面临一些批评该计划的共和党人的压力，尽管目前还不完全清楚他的立场。
2020 年，特朗普建立了一个临时的自愿模式来限制胰岛素成本；据 KFF 称，不到一半的符合条件的 Medicare Part D 计划选择参与。特朗普政府通过了允许各州从加拿大进口处方药的规则，尽管许多最昂贵的药物被排除在外，并扩大了远程医疗的覆盖范围。
医疗补助
在他的第一个任期内，特朗普的预算提案要求大幅削减医疗补助，这是一项州联邦保险计划，覆盖约 7500 万美国人，其中大多数是低收入者。他还允许各州限制医疗补助支出，并批准了豁免，使资格取决于工作要求，拜登政府撤回了这些豁免。
长期护理
高昂的护理费用是许多老年人和那些希望活得更长的人的生存问题，他们中的许多人希望在年老时留在家里。特朗普在竞选网站上指出的共和党政纲表明，他们有意“将资源转移回”居家护理。
对于依赖医疗补助的低收入老年人来说，家庭护理人员的持续短缺是一个特别的挑战。等待名单很常见。
共和党政纲还提到了对那些帮助亲属却没有报酬的家庭护理人员的支持。这将以税收抵免的形式出现，尽管政纲没有具体说明抵免额度。
题图：唐纳德·特朗普在讲台上对着麦克风讲话。
附原英文报道：
What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for Your Money
Here’s what the president-elect has said he might do with your taxes, student loans, Social Security and more.
Donald Trump speaking into a microphone at a podium.
In Donald J. Trump’s first term as president, income tax rates fell for most people, but those tax cuts last only through the end of 2025. Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times
By Ron Lieber and Tara Siegel Bernard
Nov. 8, 2024
President-elect Donald J. Trump made a number of personal finance promises during his presidential campaign. How many will he try to — and be able to — keep?
The answer will depend in part on the outcome of races in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Despite Republican gains, both houses are close enough to a 50-50 split that just a few elected officials could impose their will and lead to certain policies that look nothing like Mr. Trump’s campaign agenda.
It will also depend on the courts. Last year, the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s attempt to cancel certain federal student loans, ruling that Congress had not provided clear enough authority to take such a major action. The court may — or may not — restrict some of Mr. Trump’s actions in the same way.
Then there is Mr. Trump’s plan for increased tariffs. It’s hard to estimate whether your financial situation will improve in his second term without knowing how much success he will have in putting more tariffs into place — and how much consumer prices might rise as a result. The markets may be a kind of brake as well, depending on how investors react to his plans.
Candidates say plenty of things, mean most of them, follow through on many of those and successfully meet a fraction of their goals.
Mr. Trump is not like most politicians, but all we have to go on is the record of what he said he would attempt if he won. What follows is that record.
Taxes
During Mr. Trump’s first term, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which ushered in a number of big changes. Federal income tax rates fell for most people, the standard deduction nearly doubled and the child tax credit rose and became available to more people in many instances.
But many of the changes in that bill last only through the end of 2025. Congress will need to act to extend them, and when it acts, it could make additional changes.
Mr. Trump’s campaign website has links to the Republican platform, which says the party plans to make the standard deduction and child tax credit changes permanent, plus “pursue additional tax cuts.”
The platform also calls for an end to taxes on tips for restaurant and hospitality workers. During the campaign, Mr. Trump also floated the possibility of exempting overtime pay and Social Security benefits from income taxes — and not levying income taxes at all.
The 2017 law created a $10,000 cap on the deduction that people can take on their federal tax return for certain state and local taxes if they itemize their deductions. Many residents of high-tax states like New York, California and New Jersey took a big hit.
Though Mr. Trump signed this so-called SALT provision into law, in September he signaled his intent to reverse the change.
Student Loans
A Trump administration is expected to unwind much of Mr. Biden’s broad-based student debt relief.
The president-elect has also vowed to shut down the Department of Education altogether, but that’s an unlikely proposition since lawmakers would have to vote to disband the agency, our colleague Dana Goldstein reported.
But sweeping changes within the agency won’t be surprising. This year, a group of Republican-led states challenged Mr. Biden’s new student loan repayment program, which generated lower loan payments than previous plans. Known as SAVE, the income-driven repayment program was frozen by the courts, which leaves its eight million enrollees in financial limbo until the legal situation is resolved.
Mr. Trump seems unlikely to defend Mr. Biden’s SAVE program, though he did propose an income-driven repayment plan in his 2020 budget. But that plan was more expensive for borrowers — it capped monthly payments at 12.5 percent of income, higher than Mr. Biden’s SAVE plan at 5 percent. In the same budget, Mr. Trump proposed shuttering the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program to new enrollees; the plan eliminates the student debt of government and nonprofit employees after 120 qualifying payments.
During his presidency, Mr. Trump rolled back or weakened many of the borrower-focused initiatives created during the Obama administration, including a program that canceled education debt for students who were defrauded by their schools and another that held schools accountable if their graduates didn’t earn enough to pay off their student loans.
Housing
The Republican platform has proposed opening some federal lands for home construction. Credit…Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
The Republican platform that Mr. Trump linked to from his campaign website promised to “promote homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers,” but it did not provide details.
Presidents do not dictate mortgage rates, and the cost of a loan can vary widely during any four-year period. Rates for the standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 6.79 percent this week, their highest since July. Mortgage rates often mirror the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds, and that figure had its biggest one-day gain in over two years on Wednesday. The platform also mentioned opening “limited portions of federal lands” for the construction of homes. According to Mr. Trump’s campaign website, he plans to propose a national contest for entrants to help develop up to 10 new cities — about the size of the District of Columbia — on that land.
Health Insurance
During his presidency, Mr. Trump tried but failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, though he took steps that weakened it, for example, signing a law that eliminated the individual mandate, which required most people to maintain insurance coverage or face a tax penalty.
He also enabled the expansion of short-term plans, which didn’t meet the A.C.A.’s standards — those plans were cheaper but often provided thinner coverage that could be denied altogether because of pre-existing conditions (including pregnancy).
Americans could still see big changes if his administration does nothing to the A.C.A.: Tax subsidies that reduce the price of health care insurance for people who buy coverage through the Obamacare marketplaces could soon disappear.
The subsidies were passed as a temporary measure in 2021 and extended by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. They are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, and the Trump campaign and many influential Republicans have said they don’t support extending them. That means 20 million people who benefit would probably end up paying hundreds or thousands of dollars more, and individuals earning $100,000 or more would lose access to federal assistance.
An estimated 3.4 million people will lose insurance if subsidies drop and prices rise, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Mr. Trump has also said he would push for insurers to cover in vitro fertilization.
Social Security
Mr. Trump’s campaign has said he wouldn’t cut “one penny” from Social Security. But his policy proposals thus far would put the program on shakier ground, and “dramatically worsen” the program’s finances, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy group.
Social Security has long faced a financing problem, in large part because of demographic shifts. More baby boomers are collecting payments, and those retirees are living longer. At the same time, a declining birthrate has produced fewer workers contributing to payroll taxes, which is the primary source of Social Security funds.
The trust fund that pays retiree benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that point, incoming tax revenue will be enough to pay out 79 percent of scheduled benefits — if nothing is done, all beneficiaries would see their checks shrink by 21 percent.
There are two ways to solve this problem: raising taxes or trimming benefits, or some combination therein, both of which require congressional approval.
But Mr. Trump has proposed cutting various taxes that help pay for the program, including ending taxes on overtime pay and tips, which would reduce payroll taxes. He also wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would put more money into retirees’ pockets but eliminate another revenue source.
His plan to place steep tariffs on imports could raise prices, which means benefit payouts could also rise because they receive cost-of-living adjustments, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Deporting unauthorized immigrants, another Trump promise, would cut the number of immigrant workers paying into the program. Taken together, those policies would accelerate the trust funds’ insolvency and cause deeper benefit cuts, the group said.
In the past, Mr. Trump has said he would be open to cuts on social insurance programs like Social Security, but then walked back those statements.
Medicare
Mr. Trump said he would not cut Medicare and vowed to strengthen the program — a reversal from previous statements — but hasn’t provided many details. He has said he doesn’t want to raise the age for eligibility and supports financing home care benefits.
Like Social Security, Medicare faces financing shortfalls, and it is expected to be unable to pay all of its hospital bills starting in 2036. Mr. Trump’s tax reductions accelerated the depletion of a trust fund that pays for care in hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, home health and hospice, according to KFF, a health policy research group.
It’s also unclear what would happen with some of the most contentious provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate some drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies. That could lower consumer prices and save the program money. (It also limits monthly insulin costs to $35 for beneficiaries and caps out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs at $2,000.) The law also requires drug companies to make payments to Medicare if they increase their prices faster than inflation.
Mr. Trump could face pressure from some Republicans who have been critical of the program, though it’s not entirely clear where he stands.
In 2020, Mr. Trump established a temporary, voluntary model to limit insulin costs; fewer than half of all eligible Medicare Part D plans chose to participate, according to KFF. The Trump administration passed rules that allowed states to import prescription drugs from Canada, though many of the priciest drugs were excluded, and expanded coverage for telehealth.
Medicaid
In his first term, Mr. Trump’s budget proposals called for major cuts to Medicaid, the state-federal insurance program that covers about 75 million Americans, most of them low-income. He also let states cap Medicaid spending, and approved waivers that made eligibility dependent on work requirements, which the Biden administration withdrew.
Long-Term Care
The high cost of care is an existential concern for many older people and those aiming to live a lot longer, and many of them hope to stay in their homes as they age. The Republican platform that Mr. Trump pointed to from his campaign website signals an intent to “shift resources back” to at-home care.
Ongoing shortages of home health-care workers are a particular challenge for low-income seniors who rely on Medicaid. Waiting lists are common.
The Republican platform also mentions support for family caregivers who are not paid for helping their relatives. This would come in the form of tax credits, though the platform does not specify their size.
