“经济将会变得更好。”除了红蓝分歧，钱包问题也占了上风
【中美创新时报2024 年 11 月 10 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）特朗普在年轻男性和拉丁裔选民中取得了进展，建立了一个获胜联盟。《波士顿环球报》记者Emma Platoff、Sam Brodey 和 Elizabeth Koh 对此作了下述详细报道。
威斯康星州农村的奶农相信唐纳德·特朗普会对经济更有利，不管关税如何。这位 48 岁的北卡罗来纳州餐馆员工在选举中投票支持一些民主党人，但是为了获得更便宜的汽油和食品杂货而支持特朗普。这位海地裔美国大学生四年前在雷丁市认为自己“一百万年也永远不会”支持一个他认为是“种族主义偏执狂”的人。
今年，三人都支持特朗普，这是一个庞大的新联盟的一部分，该联盟在让前总统重新掌权的同时重塑了选举版图。
“2020 年，我投票反对特朗普。今年，他改变了我的想法，”学生克里斯·多尔斯周五在这个拉丁裔占多数的城市接受采访时说，当时他从一家杂货店买了奶酪牛排，杂货店的外面栏杆上仍然挂着特朗普和卡马拉·哈里斯的标志。
22 岁的宾夕法尼亚州立大学学生克里斯·多尔斯 (Chris Dolce) 将 2020 年的选票从乔·拜登 (Joe Biden) 转到了 2024 年的唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump)。
“我仍然有一种感觉，如果他掌权，人们会更加公开地表现出种族主义，”多尔斯说。但在特朗普执政期间，他说，“我觉得经济会变得更好。”他说，他的年轻黑人朋友群体大多出于同样的原因支持特朗普。
22 岁的多尔斯是将伯克斯县的赤字进一步推高了 2 个百分点以上的选民之一——这一小幅增长，加上宾夕法尼亚州几乎每个县的类似变化，帮助这个摇摆州重新回到共和党手中。这种模式在全国范围内重复出现，包括迄今为止调用的所有其他战场州，这也解释了特朗普如何赢得如此决定性的胜利。
在这场长期以来被誉为惊心动魄的选举中，特朗普不仅赢得了几个关键邮政编码区的选票，还增加了他在城市、郊区和农村地区的选票份额；并提高了他在年轻人和有色人种选民中的表现。特朗普在马萨诸塞州等民主党占多数的州的支持率有所上升，甚至在纽约市和休斯顿等大本营也削弱了民主党的优势。
上周，在威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和北卡罗来纳州等摇摆州进行的数十次采访中，特朗普选民描述了他们选择这位曾被定罪的重罪犯、四年前拒绝接受选举失败的前总统的各种原因——政治和个人原因。绝大多数人都提到了对经济和移民的担忧。一些人表示，他们对他的民主党对手、副总统卡马拉·哈里斯感到失望；许多男性对她的领导能力表示担忧，或者相信她在与特朗普的电视辩论中依靠蓝牙耳机的阴谋论。
周二为特朗普发声的声音使“让美国再次伟大”运动的概念变得复杂，许多民主党人曾认为该运动由白人主导。
温斯顿·雷耶斯是一位 49 岁的多米尼加裔美国人，来自雷丁，长期支持特朗普。他对特朗普联盟今年的显著增长表示欢迎。“让美国再次伟大”是一场运动。它关乎国家、家庭和经济，”他戴着标志性的红帽子，准备与妻子和三个孩子共进周五晚餐。“人们喜欢这样。西班牙裔，我们当然也喜欢这样。”
在一个按性别划分的选民中，是男性为特朗普带来了胜利，尽管他们不是来自任何一个种族或年龄组。据美联社的数据，特朗普再次以两位数的优势赢得了白人男性——他最可靠的人口群体。但所有年龄段的黑人男性也转向特朗普，支持率高出 12 个百分点。30 岁以下的年轻男性以 15 个百分点的优势决定性地转向特朗普。拉丁裔男性对哈里斯的支持率下降，也帮助德克萨斯州边境十几个曾经是民主党、西班牙裔占多数的县决定性地向右转。
这并非偶然。特朗普竞选团队投入巨资来争取这些选区的支持。例如，在雷丁市中心，共和党在拉丁裔经营的餐馆和商店所在的街区开设了一个外地办事处；通过镇上的一家理发店，竞选团队为以拉丁裔为主的年轻男性提供免费理发服务。
数百英里之外，在威斯康星州沃基肖县郊区，38 岁的科里·克劳德 (Corey Crowder) 对特朗普的压倒性胜利感到欣喜若狂。
“大多数黑人从小就认为他们应该是民主党人，”他说。但他开始觉得民主党把他这样的黑人选民视为理所当然。克劳德曾是巴拉克·奥巴马的支持者，自 2016 年以来一直支持特朗普，因为他觉得共和党在经济问题上更胜一筹。
“我投票给他了，”这位 Instacart 送货司机一边微笑着说，一边把一加仑又一加仑的牛奶装进后备箱。
7400 万特朗普选民中并非所有人都是特朗普的铁杆支持者。
威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校大四学生托马斯·派尔直到选举前的那个星期一才决定投票给特朗普，尽管他是校园共和党俱乐部的领袖。但最终，经济因素战胜了他对特朗普拒绝接受 2020 年大选结果的担忧。派尔说，几个月来，共和党学生团体一直致力于增加该党在这个自由城市的选票份额，尽管他们知道民主党最终会获胜。
“这不是麦迪逊是否是蓝色的问题，而是威斯康星州是否是蓝色的问题，”派尔说。
最终，正是这场优势游戏在全国范围内推动了特朗普的支持率。麦迪逊的所在地丹县仍然是明亮的蓝色，但今年略微转向特朗普，哈里斯在校园中的表现不如拜登。
今年，其他紫色和红色区域也为前总统变得更红。这些选民中的许多人从一开始就支持特朗普。
64 岁的吉米·约翰逊 (Jimmy Johnson) 迄今已在三场总统竞选中投票给特朗普，尽管他位于威斯康星州中南部摇摆不定的索克县 (Sauk County) 的家乡选民从特朗普转为拜登，又转为特朗普，反映了整个州的状况。
和许多特朗普的支持者一样，约翰逊表示，他认为 2020 年大选存在舞弊，但对这次投票的公正性充满信心。他说，如果 1 月 6 日的叛乱当天他不必照看孙子，他就会去现场。
周三早上 5 点，这位前面包师醒来，听到特朗普当选的消息，他说，“这让咖啡味道更好了。”
但一些选民表示，对特朗普的兴奋与对哈里斯的冷漠同样重要。虽然选票仍在统计中，但截至周六的初步统计显示，特朗普获得的选票份额为 7400 万，与他在 2020 年获得的选票份额大致相当。但到目前为止，哈里斯的选票比四年前拜登的 8100 万少了数百万张，这表明许多曾经倾向于民主党的选民可能已经退出了 2024 年的竞选。
北卡罗来纳州纳什县农村选区的部分选民就是这种情况，该县是该州的风向标，自 2012 年以来一直正确预测总统大选结果。纳什在许多方面都象征着民主党试图在经济政策上取胜的方式：从当地 Amtrak 车站的广告牌上宣传“由总统乔·拜登的两党基础设施法资助”的改进措施，到去年 6 月拜登在这里竞选，呼吁通过政府资助的项目带回制造业工作岗位。
但这些并没有考虑到 41 岁的乔纳森·韦斯特，他是当地一家老年生活中心的厨师，他在 2016 年投票支持特朗普，在 2020 年投票支持拜登，但今年没有投票，他说。韦斯特在洛基山的一家理发店修剪胡子，距离特朗普在选举前举行集会的地方只有一个街区，韦斯特说，他怀疑无论谁当总统都会有所作为。“众议院和国会，他们无论如何都在掌管一切。”
特朗普联盟的一些新成员可能曾经倾向于支持哈里斯，比如来自雷丁的 22 岁全职妈妈罗斯·里瓦斯 (Rose Rivas)。里瓦斯解释说，当她准备在西班牙语教堂 Iglesia Evangelica Nueva Vida 的周五晚间礼拜上弹钢琴时，“有一段时间我想成为民主党人。”
但在做了更多研究之后——主要是在 TikTok 上观看政治视频，里瓦斯说——她对哈里斯感到失望，并对可能旨在迎合像她这样的选民的具体计划持怀疑态度，比如民主党承诺向首次购房者提供 25,000 美元的联邦首付援助。
“这些事情你必须要看，这个人的行为是什么，而不仅仅是他们的承诺？”里瓦斯问道。“我知道他是一个被定罪的重罪犯。我知道他有前科。我明白，但归根结底，他来这里是为了当总统，而我们作为基督徒……我们聚在一起向上帝祈祷，我们相信上帝可以改变人们，对吧？”
迈克尔·埃尔南德斯和他的理发师努里·雷金斯在雷丁市中心的一家理发店理发时一起笑着谈论政治。虽然两人最初都支持唐纳德·特朗普的政策，但在特朗普最近的集会上对波多黎各发表有争议的言论后，雷金斯最终投票给了卡马拉·哈里斯。
虽然许多特朗普选民对他的犯罪记录和争议历史感到矛盾，但他的竞选活动将挑衅作为核心价值，疏远了潜在的支持者。雷丁的波多黎各理发师努里·雷金斯是特朗普的粉丝——“他是黑帮”，雷金斯说。但他无法接受一位支持特朗普的喜剧演员在选举前纽约市集会上发表的反波多黎各人言论，于是投票给了哈里斯。 “这对我来说意义重大，”他说。
在雷丁，许多选民的朋友或亲戚都是无证移民，人们也担心特朗普会兑现承诺，驱逐该国所有无证移民。多米尼加裔美国人特朗普的支持者雷耶斯表示，前总统的立场“从拉丁裔那里获得了大量选票”，并认为如果他在担任总统期间对这个问题采取温和态度，“无论谁继任都可以扩大他已经拥有的拉丁裔基础。”
在威斯康星州小城莱克米尔斯的一家地下酒吧里，56 岁的杰夫·纳克莱纳对周四晚上的选举结果并不十分兴奋，尽管他的候选人获胜了。
在过去两次选举中，纳克莱纳都支持他的妻子竞选总统。但在与他曾经的首选候选人离婚后，纳克莱纳上周为特朗普填补了空缺。
“没有人——没有人——除非你是精神病患者，会因为投票给特朗普而沾沾自喜，”纳克莱纳一边享受着酒吧每周 7.75 美元的牛排特惠，一边说道。尽管如此，他还是投了特朗普一票，因为他想到了“我儿子的未来，还有我自己的未来”。纳克莱纳去年离婚后租房居住，他希望降低利率，这样他有朝一日可以再买一套房子。他还希望结束“通货膨胀率过高”的现象，以及“孩子们在学校里被教授 LGBT 而不是美国国歌”。
他说，他也考虑过外交事务，他赞成特朗普的孤立主义倾向。
“第一次世界大战结束了……我们必须开始照顾自己的家人，”纳克莱纳说。“你必须停止向那些对我们毫无帮助的国家伸出援手。”
纳克莱纳坐在空荡荡的酒吧里，面前是一串美国国旗，他哀叹这个国家的分裂。
“我们为什么不能成为朋友？”他唱道。“我们为什么不能成为朋友？”
《环球报》记者安德鲁·伯克-史蒂文森对本报道亦有贡献。
题图：特朗普和民主党候选人的竞选标语都挂在宾夕法尼亚州雷丁市一家多米尼加人拥有的杂货店外，拉丁裔政治忠诚度的转变已成为宾夕法尼亚州战场地位的关键因素。一名戴着波多黎各国旗棒球帽的行人走过混杂的政治信息，表明这个城市的忠诚度存在分歧，其中西班牙裔居民占总人口的 68.9%。Erin Clark/Globe Staff
附原英文报道：
‘The economy will be in a better place.’ Beyond the red-blue divide, pocketbook issues prevailed
Trump made gains with young men and Latino voters to build a winning coalition
By Emma Platoff, Sam Brodey and Elizabeth Koh Globe Staff,Updated November 10, 2024
Campaign signs for both Trump and Democratic candidates were hung outside a Dominican-owned bodega in Reading, Pa., where shifting Latino political allegiances have become a key factor in Pennsylvania’s battleground status. A pedestrian wearing a Puerto Rican flag baseball cap walked past the mixed political messaging, illustrating the divided loyalties in a city where Hispanic residents make up 68.9 percent of the population.Erin Clark/Globe Staff
READING, Pa. — It was the dairy farmer in rural Wisconsin who believes that Donald Trump will be better for the economy, tariffs be damned. It was the 48-year-old North Carolina restaurant employee who voted for some Democrats down ballot but went for Trump hoping for cheaper gas and groceries. It was the Haitian American college student here in Reading who four years ago believed he would “never in a million years” support someone he considered a “racist bigot.”
This year, all three pulled the lever for Trump, part of a sprawling new coalition that reshaped the electoral map as it returned the former president to power.
“In 2020, I voted against Trump. This year, he changed my mind,” Chris Dolce, the student, said in an interview in this Latino-majority city Friday, as he picked up cheesesteaks from a bodega that still featured both a Trump sign and a Kamala Harris sign on an outside railing.
Twenty-two-year-old Penn State student Chris Dolce switched his vote from Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024.
“I still have a feeling, where people will be more openly racist if he’s in power,” Dolce said. But under Trump, he said, “I feel the economy will be in a better place.” His friend group of younger Black men, he said, largely backed Trump for the same reasons.
The 22-year-old Dolce was among the voters who moved Berks County further into the red by more than 2 percentage points from 2020 — a modest gain that, added to similar movement in practically every county in Pennsylvania, helped flip this swing state back to Republicans. That pattern was repeated across the country, including in every other battleground state called so far, and explains how Trump earned such a decisive victory.
In an election long hailed as nail-biter close, Trump won not just by claiming a handful of key ZIP codes, but by increasing his vote share all over, in cities, suburban areas, and rural stretches alike; and by improving his performance with young men and voters of color in particular. Trump’s support grew in states as reliably blue as Massachusetts, and he cut into the Democratic advantage even in strongholds such as New York City and Houston.
In dozens of interviews last week in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, Trump voters described a wide range of reasons — political and personal — why they chose a former president who is a convicted felon and four years ago refused to accept his electoral defeat. Overwhelmingly, they cited concerns about the economy and immigration. Some said they were underwhelmed by his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris; many were men who voiced concern about her ability to lead or believed the discredited conspiracy theory that she relied on a Bluetooth earpiece during the televised debate against Trump.
The voices that spoke up for Trump on Tuesday complicate the conception of a MAGA movement that many Democrats had painted as dominated by white men.
Winston Reyes, a 49-year old Dominican American man from Reading who has long backed Trump, hailed what he described as significant growth in the Trump coalition this year. “MAGA is a movement. It’s country and family and economy,” he said, sporting the iconic red hat as he prepared for Friday night dinner with his wife and three children. “People like that. And Hispanics, we definitely are about that too.”
In an electorate divided along gender lines, it was men who delivered Trump his victory, though not from any one single ethnic or age group. Trump again won white men — his most reliable demographic — by double digits, according to Associated Press data. But Black men of all ages swung toward Trump, too, by 12 percentage points. Young men under 30 broke decisively for Trump by 15 percentage points. And eroding support for Harris among Latino men also helped shift a dozen once-Democratic, majority-Hispanic counties along the Texas border decisively to the right.
It was not accidental. The Trump operation invested heavily in reaching these constituencies. In downtown Reading, for instance, Republicans opened a field office on the same block as Latino-run restaurants and shops; through a barbershop in town, the campaign offered free haircuts to predominately young Latino men.
Hundreds of miles away, in suburban Waukesha County, Wis., 38-year-old Corey Crowder was jubilant about Trump’s sweeping win.
“Most Black people grow up thinking they’re supposed to be Democrats,” he said. But he has come to feel that the Democratic Party takes Black voters like him for granted. Once a Barack Obama supporter, Crowder has backed Trump since 2016, because he feels the Republican is better on economic issues.
“I voted him in,” the Instacart delivery driver said with a smile as he loaded gallon after gallon of milk into his trunk.
Not all of the 74 million Trump voters were diehard Trump supporters.
Thomas Pyle, a senior at University of Wisconsin Madison, did not decide to vote for Trump until the Monday before the election, despite leading the campus Republican club. But, ultimately economic considerations overcame his concerns about Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election. Pyle said for months the GOP student group worked to increase the party’s share of votes in this liberal city, even though they knew Democrats would win overall.
“It’s not about whether Madison is blue or not, it’s about whether Wisconsin is blue or not,” Pyle said.
Ultimately, it was that game of margins that boosted Trump across the country. Dane County, home to crunchy Madison, was still bright blue, but shifted slightly toward Trump this year, with Harris underperforming Biden’s margins on campus.
Other purple and red areas turned redder for the former president this year, too. Many of those voters have been with Trump since the beginning.
Jimmy Johnson, 64, has voted for Trump in three presidential races now, even as his home in swing-y Sauk County in south central Wisconsin has bounced from Trump to Biden to Trump, mirroring the state as a whole.
Like many Trump supporters, Johnson said he believes the 2020 election was rigged, but was confident in the integrity of the vote this time around. He would have been at the Jan. 6 insurrection, he said — if he hadn’t had to babysit his grandchildren that day.
When the former baker woke up at 5 a.m. Wednesday to the news that Trump had been elected, he said, “it made the coffee taste better.”
But just as important as excitement about Trump was apathy about Harris, some voters said. While votes are still being counted, preliminary totals as of Saturday show Trump’s vote share, 74 million, is about on par with what he earned in 2020. But Harris, so far, is millions of votes shy of the 81 million cast for Biden four years ago, a signal many once-Democratic-inclined voters may have sat the 2024 race out.
That was the case for some voters in purple, rural Nash County, N.C., a bellwether corner of the state that has correctly called the presidential race since 2012. Nash in many ways was emblematic of how Democrats tried to win on economic policy: from the sign at the local Amtrak station advertising improvements “funded by President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law” to Biden campaigning here last June on bringing back manufacturing jobs through government-funded programs.
But those didn’t factor in for Jonathan West, 41, a cook at a local senior living center who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 but did not cast a ballot this year, he said. As he had his beard trimmed at a barbershop in Rocky Mount just a block from where Trump held a rally before the election, West said he was doubtful whoever was president would make a difference. “The House and Congress, they run everything anyway.”
Some new members of the Trump coalition might once have been inclined to support Harris, such as Rose Rivas, a 22-year old stay-at-home mom from Reading. As she was getting ready to play piano for the Friday evening service at Iglesia Evangelica Nueva Vida, a Spanish-language church, Rivas explained, “there was a time where I wanted to become Democratic.”
But after doing more research — largely watching political videos on TikTok, Rivas said — she grew disillusioned with Harris and skeptical about specific plans that were perhaps designed to cater to voters like her, such as the Democrat’s pledge of $25,000 in federal downpayment assistance to first-time home buyers.
“These are things that you just have to look at like, what is the actions of this person, not just what they’re promising?” Rivas asked. “I know he is a convicted felon. I know he has a history. I get it, but at the end of the day, what he’s here is to be a president, and we as Christians … we’re coming together to pray to God that we believe can make changes in people, right?”
Michael Hernandez shared a laugh with his barber Nurye Regins as they discussed politics during a haircut at a downtown Reading barbershop. While both men initially supported Donald Trump’s policies, Regins ultimately voted for Kamala Harris after the controversial comments about Puerto Rico at Trump’s recent rally.
While many Trump voters are ambivalent about his criminal record and history of controversies, his campaign’s embrace of provocation as a core value alienated potential supporters. Nurye Regins, a Puerto Rican barber in Reading, is a fan of Trump personally — “he’s gangster,” Regins said. But he could not get past a pro-Trump comic’s anti-Puerto Rican comments at his New York City rally before the election and voted for Harris. “That made a huge difference for me,” he said.
In Reading, where many voters have friends or relatives who are undocumented, there’s also fear Trump will make good on his promise to deport every undocumented person in the country. Reyes, the Dominican American Trump supporter, said the former president’s stance “took a lot of vote from Latinos” and argued that if he moderated on the issue as president, “whoever comes after him can grow this Latino base that he already have.”
At a dive bar in the tiny Wisconsin city of Lake Mills, 56-year-old Jeff Nachreiner wasn’t quite excited about the election results on Thursday night, even though his candidate had won.
In the last two elections, Nachreiner wrote in his wife for president. But after a costly divorce from his onetime candidate of choice, Nachreiner filled in the bubble last week for Trump.
“Nobody — nobody — unless you’re criminally insane, wants to pat yourself on the back” for voting for Trump, Nachreiner said as he enjoyed the bar’s weekly $7.75 steak special. Still, he cast his ballot for Trump thinking of “my sons’ future, and my own.” Nachreiner, who is renting his home after his divorce last year, wants lower interest rates so he can buy another house someday. He also wants an end to “inflation rates up the ying-yang,” and to “kids being taught LGBT in schools instead of the American anthem.”
Foreign affairs were on his mind, too, he said, and he favors Trump’s isolationist tendencies.
“World War I is done. … We’ve got to start taking care of our own family,” Nachreiner said. “You’ve got to stop being a helping hand to so many useless countries that don’t lift a hand to us in return.”
Sitting at the emptying bar in front of a string light American flag, Nachreiner lamented the nation’s divisions.
“Why can’t weeee be friends?” he sang. “Why can’t we be friends?”
Globe correspondent Andrew Burke-Stevenson contributed to this report.
