美联社预测，共和党将赢得美国参议院的控制权，众议院仍势均力敌
【中美创新时报2024 年 11 月 6 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）美联社预测，共和党在周二晚上赢得了美国参议院的控制权，利用今年极其有利的一系列竞选，自 2021 年初以来首次重返多数席位。众议院仍难分胜负。《波士顿环球报》记者Jim Puzzanghera 和 Tal Kopan 对此作了下述报道。
参议院的预测是在共和党在西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州翻转席位，并在民主党最好的接手机会中击败民主党之后做出的。
共和党将在明年控制一个议院的议程，该议院负责确认总统对行政部门办公室和司法部门的提名人，包括任何出现的最高法院空缺。这将使即将上任的共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普更容易确认他的内阁并塑造法院。
众议院的控制权可能至关重要。在过去的两个选举周期中，众议院一直以微弱多数票控制，预计众议院将再次为 218 个席位和多数席位展开激烈竞争。无党派的库克政治报告在其最终的竞选评级中认为 22 场竞选胜负难分，而民主党在 205 场中占优势，共和党在 208 场中占优势。但众议院的平衡可能需要几天到几周的时间才能确定，因为加利福尼亚州有几个摇摆选区，历史上处理选票需要更多时间。
如果共和党横扫国会，他们将拥有相当大的权力将他们的议程制定成法律。另一方面，民主党扭转众议院局面将为他们提供谈判的立足点。
过去两年，民主党在参议院以 51 比 49 的微弱优势占据多数席位。但参议院 100 个席位中，只有 34 个席位（任期均为六年）在 2024 年的选举中被列入选票，民主党在这种周期性崩溃中处于明显劣势。其中 23 个席位由民主党人或与他们一起参加党团会议的现任议员占据，目的是控制参议院。
其中三个席位位于特朗普在 2020 年轻松获胜的州，今年再次获胜：西弗吉尼亚州、俄亥俄州和蒙大拿州。另外四个席位位于宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、内华达州和亚利桑那州这几个战场州。这让民主党在 2021 年 1 月 5 日的特别选举中横扫佐治亚州的两个席位后，很难保住他们赢得的多数席位。
共和党现在面临着未来几天内部选择，谁将领导他们的党团会议——并成为下一任参议院多数党领袖。德克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁、佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特和南达科他州参议员约翰·图恩正在争夺肯塔基州参议员米奇·麦康奈尔的职位，后者将辞去历史上任职时间最长的共和党领袖一职。
共和党的微弱多数将提升两位资深共和党参议员的影响力，她们比许多同事更倾向于投票支持民主党：缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯和阿拉斯加州参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基。她们都不是特朗普的支持者，并公开表示不会在今年的选举中投票支持特朗普。根据卢格中心和乔治城大学麦考特公共政策学院的年度分析，柯林斯是今年最具两党合作精神的参议员，而穆尔科斯基则排名第七。
穆尔科斯基一直是特朗普的直言不讳的批评者，她曾暗示由于特朗普对共和党的控制，她可能会成为一名独立人士，尽管目前尚不清楚她是否会与民主党结盟。但她愿意在选票上与共和党领导人唱反调，这意味着她可能准备扮演与即将离任的西弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员乔·曼钦在拜登政府期间扮演的角色类似的角色。
曼钦的温和政治立场使他成为拜登政府一些重大立法提案的障碍，今年秋天他没有竞选连任。几个月来，民主党人都知道，他们几乎肯定会在深红色的西弗吉尼亚州失去他的席位。共和党州长吉姆·贾斯蒂斯预计将轻松击败惠灵市市长民主党人格伦·埃利奥特。
同样失利的还有俄亥俄州民主党现任参议员谢罗德·布朗，因为克利夫兰和商人伯尼·莫雷诺在这个预计特朗普也将获胜的州轻松获胜。
另一个濒临危险的民主党席位在蒙大拿州，民意调查显示，现任参议员乔恩·泰斯特一直落后于共和党对手、商人和前海豹突击队员蒂姆·希伊。
几个战场州的民意调查结果也非常接近。
在宾夕法尼亚州，民主党现任参议员鲍勃·凯西在华盛顿与共和党前对冲基金首席执行官戴夫·麦考密克展开了 18 年职业生涯中最艰难的竞争。威斯康星州的竞争也同样激烈，第一位公开同性恋身份的民主党现任参议员塔米·鲍德温与共和党企业主埃里克·霍夫德展开了激烈的竞争。民意调查显示，在密歇根州，民主党众议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金和前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯将争夺即将退休的民主党人黛比·斯塔贝诺的席位。
预计民主党将在另外两个战场州表现更好。在内华达州，民主党现任议员杰基·罗森 (Jacky Rosen) 与共和党企业主山姆·布朗 (Sam Brown) 竞争。在填补即将退休的克里斯滕·西内玛 (Kyrsten Sinema) 的独立席位的竞选中，民意调查显示民主党众议员鲁本·加列戈 (Ruben Gallego) 领先于前电视新闻主播、共和党人卡里·莱克 (Kari Lake)。
在新英格兰，现任参议员、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦 (Elizabeth Warren) 和佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯 (Bernie Sanders) 轻松赢得连任，而在特拉华州，民主党众议员丽莎·布朗特·罗切斯特 (Lisa Blunt Rochester) 赢得一个空缺席位，成为第一位代表该州进入参议院的女性和有色人种。随着民主党人安吉拉·阿尔索布鲁克斯 (Angela Alsobrooks) 在马里兰州获胜，将有两名黑人女性首次进入参议院，也是有史以来第四和第五位进入参议院的女性。
新泽西州民主党众议员安迪·金 (Andy Kim) 创造了历史，美联社预测他将赢得该州的一个空缺参议院席位。他成为首位韩裔美国参议员，接替因腐败指控被定罪而于 8 月辞职的民主党人罗伯特·梅内德斯。
周二，11 名竞选连任的共和党人全部获胜，包括民主党人原本希望翻盘的两个席位。在德克萨斯州，共和党参议员泰德·克鲁兹预计将击败民主党众议员科林·奥尔雷德。佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特预计将轻松击败前民主党众议员黛比·穆卡塞尔-鲍威尔。
题图：俄亥俄州共和党参议员候选人伯尼·莫雷诺在 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二选举之夜在俄亥俄州韦斯特莱克举行的观看派对上。Sue Ogrocki/美联社
附原英文报道：
Republicans will win control of the US Senate, House remains close, AP projects
By Jim Puzzanghera and Tal Kopan Globe Staff,Updated November 6, 2024
Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio.Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Republicans won control of the US Senate on Tuesday night, the Associated Press projected, capitalizing on an extremely advantageous set of races this year to return to the majority for the first time since early 2021.
The House remained too close to call.
The Senate projection came after Republicans flipped seats in West Virginia and Ohio, and held off Democrats in their best pick-up opportunities.
The GOP will control the agenda next year in a chamber charged with confirming presidential nominees for executive branch offices and the judiciary, including any Supreme Court vacancies that arise. That will make it much easier for incoming Republican president Donald Trump to confirm his Cabinet and to shape the courts.
House control could prove pivotal. The House has been governed by razor-thin majorities for the past two election cycles, and was forecast to be another close battle for 218 seats and the majority. In its final race ratings, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report had 22 races considered to be toss-ups, while Democrats were favored in 205 and Republicans in 208. But the balance of the House could take days to weeks to determine, as California, which has several swing districts, has historically taken more time to process votes.
If Republicans sweep Congress, they would have considerable power to enact their agenda into law. Democrats flipping the House, on the other hand, would give them a foothold for negotiation.
Democrats held a narrow 51-49 seat majority in the Senate the past two years. But only 34 of the Senate’s 100 seats, which all have a six-year term, were on the ballot in 2024 and Democrats were at a distinct disadvantage in that cyclical breakdown. Twenty-three of those seats were held by Democrats or incumbents who caucus with them for the purposes of Senate control.
Three of those seats were in states Trump easily won in 2020 and did so again this year: West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana. Four more were in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona. That stacked the odds against Democrats to hold the majority they won after sweeping flipping both Georgia seats in a Jan. 5, 2021, special election.
Republicans now face an internal choice in the coming days over who will head their caucus — and become the next Senate majority leader. Senators John Cornyn of Texas, Rick Scott of Florida, and John Thune of South Dakota are vying to succeed Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, who is stepping down from his role as the longest-serving Republican leader in history.
A narrow Republican majority would elevate the influence of two veteran GOP senators who vote with Democrats more than many of their colleagues: Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Neither are Trump supporters and both said publicly they would not vote for him in this year’s election. Collins was ranked the most bipartisan senator this year and Murkowski the seventh, according to the annual analysis from The Lugar Center and the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy.
Murkowski has been an outspoken Trump critic who has suggested she might become an independent because of his control of the Republican Party, although it’s not known if she would align with Democrats. But her willingness to buck Republican leaders on votes means she could be poised to play a similar role to the one outgoing Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat-turned-independent, played during the Biden administration.
Manchin, whose moderate politics made him an obstacle to some major Biden administration legislative proposals, did not run for reelection this fall. Democrats have known for months that they were almost certain to lose his seat in deep red West Virginia. Republican Governor Jim Justice was projected to easily defeat Democrat Glenn Elliott, the mayor of Wheeling.
Also falling was Democratic incumbent Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, as Cleveand businessman Bernie Moreno won comfortably in a state that Trump also was predicted to win.
Another endangered Democratic seat was in Montana, where polls showed incumbent Jon Tester consistently trailing his Republican opponent, businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.
Several of the battleground state races also were extremely tight in polling.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey was in the toughest race of his 18-year Washington career against Republican former hedge fund chief executive Dave McCormick. The race was just as close in Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, the first openly gay senator, battled Republican business owner Eric Hovde. And polls showed a competitive race in Michigan between Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers for the seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow.
Democrats were expected to perform better in two other battleground states. In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen was running against Republican business owner Sam Brown. And in the race to fill independent the seat of retiring Kyrsten Sinema, polls showed Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego with a lead over Republican Kari Lake, a former TV news anchor.
In New England, incumbents Senators Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, and Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, won reelection easily, while in Delaware Democratic Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester won an open seat to became the first woman and person of color to represent that state in the Senate. With the projected win of Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland, there will be two Black women serving in the Senate for the first time, and the fourth and fifth to ever serve in the body.
And Representative Andy Kim of New Jersey, a Democrat, achieved an historic first when the AP projected he would win an open Senate seat in the state. He becomes the first Korean American senator, replacing Democrat Robert Menendez after he resigned in August following his conviction on corruption charges.
All of the 11 Republicans up for reelection won Tuesday, including in the two seats that Democrats had outside hopes of flipping. In Texas, Republican Senator Ted Cruz was projected to beat Democratic Representative Colin Allred. And Florida Senator Rick Scott was projected to easily defeat former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
