距离总统大选还有 30 天，哈里斯和特朗普的竞选活动将迎来一场艰苦的收官
【中美创新时报2024 年 10 月 6 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）随着副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普开始为入主白宫进行最后 30 天的冲刺，他们从“锈带”到“阳光带”陷入了一场势均力敌的竞争。《纽约时报》记者Lisa Lerer、Reid J. Epstein 和 Maggie Haberman 对此作了下述报道。
民意调查平均值显示，所有七个战场州都几乎打成平手，许多民主党人认为，他们最大的优势可能是他们的政党花了一年多时间在全国范围内建立的大规模地面行动。特朗普的竞选团队认为，最近发生的事件——中东冲突升级和导致东南部 200 多人死亡的致命飓风——将使其在最后几周占据优势。
从某种程度上来说，这两种做法与 2016 年大选的最后几天如出一辙，当时希拉里·克林顿的竞选团队吹嘘自己拥有庞大的、以数据为驱动的实地组织，而特朗普则通过相对稀少的工作人员和在关键州几乎没有实地行动，传达了一种基于煽动反移民情绪和改善经济的全国性信息。当然，特朗普获胜了，这得益于联邦调查局局长重启对民主党候选人电子邮件的调查。
这一次，民主党人没有那么自信。尽管自那以后，特朗普和他的政党在每次重大选举中都失败或表现不佳，但许多民主党人认为今年他们可能会输。
“任何人如果认为特朗普不受欢迎都是愚蠢的，”曾参加 2020 年总统竞选的前圣安东尼奥市长朱利安·卡斯特罗说。“我认为她会赢，但我真的确定她会赢吗？不。2016 年的经历告诉我们，你不能把这个人排除在外。”
总统竞选的老手表示，今年的竞选与众不同，因为重大政治事件似乎对两位候选人的相对地位影响甚微。两次针对特朗普的暗杀、总统和副总统辩论以及党代会，都给他和哈里斯带来了暂时的支持，但没有带来公众舆论的持久转变。
结果是，两场竞选的高层官员都称这是一场艰苦的竞选，几千张选票的变动就可能影响整个选举的结果。
拉尔夫·里德 (Ralph Reed) 是佐治亚州的一名社会保守派活动家，他正在帮助特朗普竞选团队投票，他说，自 2000 年以来，他不记得有哪场总统竞选在竞选的后期有这么多州实际上打成平手。
“在战场州，这就像第一次世界大战期间的堑壕战，”他说。 “每个人都在挖掘地盘。每个人都在投掷炮弹和机枪，这里只是一片无人地带。”
竞争激烈意味着资金的猛烈投入，尤其是在佐治亚州、亚利桑那州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州、威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州这些战场州。
相关：民主党团体向联邦选举委员会提出投诉，指控共和党工作人员在新罕布什尔州非法提升吉尔·斯坦的支持率
双方竞选官员拒绝按重要性对各州进行排名，称这些州的竞争仍然非常激烈。
“在我看来，没有蓝墙路线、南方路线或西方路线，”哈里斯竞选战场州主任丹·卡尼宁说。“我们正在努力赢得所有七个州的激烈竞争，因为归根结底，我相信其中任何一个州都可能成为临界点。”
据媒体追踪公司 AdImpact 称，自 9 月 1 日以来，已花费超过 6.75 亿美元用于预留电视和数字广告时间。哈里斯竞选团队在这七个州的广告支出都超过了特朗普竞选团队。民主党第三方组织在这七个州的广告支出也超过了共和党同行。
但共和党向如此多的人发送了如此多的直邮，以至于连关键州的民主党人都表示，他们收到了大量抨击哈里斯、称赞特朗普是社会保障福利保护者的华丽宣传材料。
邮件追踪公司 Mintt 发现，9 月份，81% 的直邮都是在宣传特朗普或攻击哈里斯。该公司发现，8 月份的不平衡更加严重：96% 的与总统竞选有关的直邮都是由共和党团体发送的。
“广告和地面活动正涌入所有这些州，以寻找将决定最终获胜者的数千名选民，”全国共和党顾问兼广告买家尼克·埃弗哈特 (Nick Everhart) 说。 “在竞选如此接近、且没有明显拐点的情况下，每一周、每一天、每一分钟、每一秒都至关重要。”
共和党人承认，他们在电视上的投入不及对手，在关键州的实地组织也落后于对手——但他们表示，特朗普在经济和移民问题上的实力可能足以让他克服这些结构性赤字。
调查显示，即使通胀放缓、油价下跌、美联储四年来首次降息，共和党在经济问题上仍占有优势。在拜登政府执政期间，公众对移民的看法也向右转，更多美国人表示支持采取更严厉的执法措施打击非法移民。
威斯康星州前州长、共和党人斯科特·沃克估计，在本周密尔沃基酿酒人棒球季后赛中，电视上每播放一则特朗普广告，就会播放 10 则哈里斯广告。他承认，威斯康星州民主党人建立了一个比共和党人更大、更强大的组织。
“你肯定看到了他们的经济优势，”沃克说。 “与美国其他地方一样，选情接近的原因在于，问题矩阵站在共和党一边。”
所有这些钱都花在吸引数百万预计投票者中的一小部分。据民主党战略家吉姆·梅西纳 (Jim Messina) 称，只有 4% 的战场州选民不知道如何投票或是否投票，他正在通过盟友外部团体支持哈里斯。
也许这两个竞选活动的最大目标不是那些对支持哪位候选人犹豫不决的人，而是是否投票。
“我们的首要任务应该是让那些有时在选举日决定是否出席的人投票，这将是选举的一个真正决定性因素，”纽约州民主党众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) 在上周威斯康星州的竞选活动结束后表示。“这是关于呆在家里还是参与我们的进程的选择。”
哈里斯竞选团队认为，他们已经建立了一个可以接触到这些选民的组织，在七个摇摆州拥有数百名组织者和数十个办事处。哈里斯竞选团队的助手表示，他们的行动与克林顿竞选团队有着至关重要的区别。他们说，克林顿的行动主要集中在动员民主党基础，而他们的竞选团队则更积极地削减特朗普在农村和更保守地区的支持率。
他们的实地行动范围从动员坚定的民主党人到说服在之前的竞选中支持特朗普但不赞成他离任后的起诉、弹劾和一般行为的温和共和党人。
相比之下，特朗普的助手认为最近发生的事件强化了他们的核心竞选信息，即哈里斯没有做好准备，软弱无力，无法恢复拜登政府四年前当选时承诺的平静感。
他们认为，他们正在一个在过去四年中变得更加保守的国家竞争——调查显示，现在更多的选民自认为是共和党人——而且更有可能在这些问题上站在他们一边。
“新的、未经深思熟虑的信息肯定会对将选民转移到特朗普总统身上或进一步激励和激励他的支持者产生影响，”特朗普竞选团队的政治总监詹姆斯·布莱尔 (James Blair) 在谈到国外敌对行动的升级和国内毁灭性的风暴时说。“这两条具体的新信息无疑支持了我们一直在起诉的案件。”
他们将他们的地面行动重点完全放在激励他们倾向最低的支持者上，其中大部分工作已外包给第三方组织，特别关注年轻的黑人男性和一般的年轻男性。
尽管他们的实地行动范围很广，但一些民主党人担心哈里斯的竞选团队没有做足够的工作来接触这些选民和其他一小部分选民。
密歇根州民主党众议员黛比·丁格尔曾公开并多次警告她的政党，他们将在 2016 年失去她的州，她说，由于以色列在加沙地带的战争以及该党核心选民缺乏热情，密歇根州仍然难以取胜。
“我无法向你描述我们所有社区的愤怒，”她说。“这真的很糟糕。犹太人和阿拉伯裔美国人社区很担心，但很多人并不在场。非裔美国年轻人表达了他们对被视为理所当然的沮丧。而且目前还不清楚年轻人是否会出来。”
周五，哈里斯在密歇根州弗林特竞选时指出了这一点。
“这将是一场非常激烈的比赛，直到最后，”她说。“我们是弱势一方。”
本文最初发表于《纽约时报》。
题图：副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普。查尔斯·雷克斯·阿博加斯特/美联社
附原英文报道：
30 days out from presidential election, the Harris and Trump campaigns are set for a grind-it-out finish
By Lisa Lerer, Reid J. Epstein and Maggie Haberman New York Times,Updated October 5, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press
As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump begin the final 30-day push for the White House, they are locked in a neck-and-neck race from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt.
With polling averages showing all seven battleground states nearly tied, many Democrats believe their biggest advantage may be an extensive ground game operation that their party has spent more than a year building across the country. Trump’s campaign thinks that recent events — the escalating conflict in the Middle East and deadly hurricanes that have killed more than 200 people across the Southeast — will give it an edge in the final weeks.
In some ways, the two approaches mirror the final days of the 2016 race, when Hillary Clinton’s campaign boasted about a massive, data-driven field organization, while Trump pressed a national message based on stoking anti-immigrant sentiment and improving the economy with a relatively meager staff and almost no field operation in the key states. Trump, of course, prevailed, helped by the FBI director’s reopening of an inquiry into the Democratic nominee’s emails.
This time, Democrats have no such overconfidence. Although Trump and his party have lost or underperformed in every major election since then, many Democrats believe this year is one they could lose.
“Anybody would be a fool to write Trump off,” said Julián Castro, the former San Antonio mayor who ran for president in 2020. “I think she’s going to win, but am I absolutely sure she’s going to win? No. The 2016 experience taught all of us that you can’t count this guy out.”
Veterans of presidential campaigns say this year’s contest is distinct for how little impact major political events seem to be having on the relative standing of the two candidates. Two assassination attempts on Trump, a presidential and vice presidential debate and the party conventions have brought both him and Harris temporary bumps in support but no enduring shifts in public opinion.
The result is what top officials in both campaigns describe as a grind-it-out race, where movements measured in a few thousand votes could sway the outcome of the entire election.
Ralph Reed, a socially conservative activist in Georgia who is helping turn out voters for the Trump campaign, said he could not recall a presidential race since 2000 in which so many states were effectively tied this late in the campaign.
“In the battleground states, it is like trench warfare during the First World War,” he said. “Everybody is dug in. Everybody is throwing artillery and machine gunfire, and it’s just a no-man’s-land.”
The tightness of the race has meant an onslaught of spending, especially in those battlegrounds of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Related: Democratic group files FEC complaint alleging GOP operatives illegally boosted Jill Stein in New Hampshire
Officials from both campaigns refused to rank the states in order of importance, saying they all remain very competitive.
“There is not, in my mind, a blue wall path or a Southern path or a Western path,” said Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s battleground states director. “We’re competing to win close races across all seven, because at the end of the day, I believe any one of them could be the tipping-point state.”
More than $675 million has been spent to reserve television and digital advertising time since Sept. 1, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm. The Harris campaign has outspent the Trump campaign in advertising in each of those seven states. Democratic third-party organizations have also outspent Republican counterparts in all seven states.
But Republicans are sending so much direct mail to so many people that even Democrats in the key states report being inundated with glossy literature slamming Harris and praising Trump as a protector of Social Security benefits.
Mintt, a mail-tracking firm, found that in September, 81% of all direct mail sent was promoting Trump or attacking Harris. In August, the imbalance had been even more severe: 96% of all direct mail relating to the presidential race was sent by Republican groups, the firm found.
“Advertising and ground game operations are inundating all these states to find the thousands of voters who will determine the winners,” said Nick Everhart, a national Republican consultant and ad buyer. “Every week, every day, every minute, every second matters when a campaign is this close without a clear inflection point on the horizon.”
Republicans acknowledge they are being outspent on television and out-organized on the ground in the key states — yet they say Trump’s strength on the economy and immigration may be enough for him to overcome those structural deficits.
Surveys indicate that Republicans still hold an advantage on economic issues, even as inflation slows, gas prices drop, and the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years. Public opinion on immigration has also swung to the right during the Biden administration, with more Americans saying they support tougher enforcement measures to crack down on illegal immigration.
Former Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, estimated that there were 10 Harris ads for every Trump ad on television during this week’s Milwaukee Brewers baseball playoff games. And he admitted that Wisconsin Democrats had built a larger, stronger organization than Republicans.
“You definitely see the financial advantage for them,” Walker said. “The thing that keeps it close, just as it is elsewhere in the country, is that the issue matrix is on the side of Republicans.”
All this money is being spent to attract a tiny slice of the millions of people who are expected to cast ballots. Only 4% of battleground state voters don’t know how or whether they will vote, according to Jim Messina, a Democratic strategist working to support Harris through allied outside groups.
And perhaps the biggest targets of both campaigns are not people who are undecided over which candidate to support, but whether to vote at all.
“Our No. 1 priority should be turning out folks that sometimes are deciding whether to show up or not on Election Day, and that’s going to be a really deciding element to the election,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., after a campaign stop in Wisconsin last week. “It’s about the choice between staying home or participating in our process.”
The Harris campaign believes it has built an organization that can reach those voters with hundreds of organizers and dozens of offices across all seven swing states. Harris campaign aides say there are crucial differences between their operation and the Clinton campaign. While the Clinton operation focused largely on mobilizing the Democratic base, they say, their campaign is working more aggressively to cut into Trump’s margins in rural and more conservative areas.
Their field operation stretches from turning out staunch Democrats to persuading moderate Republicans who supported Trump in previous races but disapprove of his indictments, impeachments and general conduct since leaving office.
In contrast, Trump aides see recent events as reinforcing their central campaign message that Harris is unprepared, weak and incapable of restoring the sense of calm that the Biden administration promised when elected four years ago.
They believe they are competing in a country that has become more conservative over the past four years — pointing to surveys showing that more voters now identify as Republican — and more likely to side with them on the issues.
“New, not-baked-in information can certainly have an impact on moving voters to President Trump or further galvanizing and motivating his supporters,” said James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director, of the escalation of hostilities abroad and the devastating storms at home. “Those two specific pieces of new information certainly bolster the case we’ve been prosecuting.”
They have focused their ground game, much of which has been outsourced to third-party organizations, entirely on motivating their lowest-propensity supporters, with a particular focus on younger Black men in particular and young men in general.
Despite their sweeping field operation, some Democrats worry that the Harris campaign isn’t doing enough to reach those voters and other small subsets of their base.
Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., who publicly and repeatedly warned her party that they were going to lose her state in 2016, said Michigan remained a tossup both because of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip and a lack of enthusiasm with the party’s core constituencies.
“I cannot describe to you the anger in all of our communities,” she said. “It’s really bad. The Jewish and the Arab American communities are concerned, and many are not there. African American young men express their frustration at being taken for granted. And it’s not clear that young people will turn out.”
Campaigning in Flint, Michigan, on Friday, Harris noted as much.
“This is going to be a very tight race until the very end,” she said. “We are the underdog.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
