特朗普的一些竞选承诺存在问题：国会共和党人对此并不感到兴奋

【中美创新时报2024 年 10 月4 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）2017 年全面税法的一项关键条款是唐纳德·特朗普担任总统期间的标志性立法成就，该条款限制了人们在联邦纳税申报单上可以扣除的州税和地方税金额。但在最近一次纽约市郊区的竞选活动中，该上限不受欢迎，特朗普表示，如果选民再次选举他，他将取消他签署成法的限制。《波士顿环球报》记者Jim Puzzanghera 对此作了下述报道。

这一承诺与他最近的其他一些承诺一样，存在一个重大问题：它不受国会共和党同僚的欢迎。他们中的大多数人都热情地支持 10,000 美元的上限，这每年可为政府节省数百亿美元，对纽约、新泽西和马萨诸塞州等高税收、民主党执政的州打击最大。

“在某些情况下，他们会把一些东西扔到墙上，看看哪些会粘住。我明白。现在是一年中最疯狂的时刻，”南达科他州共和党参议员迈克·朗兹说，并补充说，他需要一些说服力来支持提高扣除限额，更不用说取消它了。“我们将拭目以待，看看选举后会发生什么，看看到底有什么提案能够获得足够的支持成为法律。”

候选人可能会在激烈竞争的最后几周变得绝望，做出难以兑现的竞选承诺。但特朗普不同寻常，因为他最近向选民抛出的一些承诺遭到了本党立法者的强烈反对——这可能会使兑现这些承诺变得更加困难。

“承诺每锅都有一只鸡和真正做到之间有很大区别，”投资银行 TD Cowen 的华盛顿金融政策分析师 Jaret Seiberg 表示。“这就是你可以看到国会共和党人采取不同方法的地方。仅仅因为他说了并不意味着它会实现。”

Seiberg 认为特朗普无法兑现他对州和地方税收减免的承诺，也无法兑现他最近的另一项承诺：暂时将信用卡利率限制在 10%。新客户的平均利率约为 25%。

密苏里州共和党参议员 Josh Hawley 提出了一项法案，将信用卡利率限制在 18%。他对特朗普的承诺表示欢迎，但承认实现这一承诺将很困难。

“民主党喜欢它，但共和党不喜欢，”Hawley 谈到他的法案时说。他不确定特朗普是如何得出 10% 这个数字的，与人们现在支付的利率相比，这将是“一个巨大的削减”。

“也许只是一个能引起人们共鸣的数字，”霍利推测道。“我认为确切的利率可能并不像共和党总统候选人说我们应该在全国范围内限制信用卡利率那么重要。”

霍利说，反对传统的共和党立场在过去对特朗普很有效。他指出，人们对特朗普在 2016 年竞选时做出的对中国进口产品征收高额关税的承诺持怀疑态度，而这一承诺在他上任后就实施了。

“这让我们回想起他为什么赢得 2016 年初选，正是因为他听起来和舞台上的其他人不一样，”霍利说。“我认为这是他重新利用的一些旧能量。”

但特朗普未能兑现 2016 年竞选的一些重大承诺，包括修建墨西哥出资的边境墙和取代平价医疗法案。

共和党战略家凯文·马登表示，特朗普的“交易性”政治方法是共和党再次提名他为候选人时达成的协议的一部分。

“他从房地产大亨的销售角度出发，即‘我要做些什么才能让对方满意？’”马登说。“他所关注的选民不受共和党政策传统护栏的约束。”

特朗普竞选团队的发言人没有直接谈到竞选承诺有多现实，但表示国会共和党人“团结一致支持他的竞选”，如果特朗普当选总统，他们也会像以前一样支持他。

“在特朗普总统的第一任期内，他与众议院和参议院共和党人的紧密关系帮助他实现了历史性的减税、能源独立、边境安全以及通过实力实现和平，”卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。

民主党人表示，他们不相信特朗普的承诺。

“几十年来，我一直在为降低消费者的银行和借贷成本而斗争，而共和党人却在各方面与我们作对，”马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦 (Elizabeth Warren) 表示，她帮助创建了消费者金融保护局，尽管共和党人几乎一致反对。“认为他会以某种方式突然出现，成为消费者银行成本的大救星，这种想法与现实不符。

“这是唐纳德·特朗普直接面对共和党人所拥护和争取的东西在全国大部分地区不受欢迎这一事实的又一个例子，所以他试图两全其美，”她说。

特朗普的对手、副总统卡马拉·哈里斯也做出了几项难以兑现的竞选承诺，包括为首次购房者提供 25,000 美元的首付援助，以及为新生儿父母提供 6,000 美元的税收抵免。

但她的大多数承诺在民主党人中很受欢迎。塞伯格说，这些承诺的成本也较低，因为哈里斯希望增加对企业和富人的税收。特朗普希望降低企业税率，延长所有 2017 年减税措施，这些措施将在 2025 年底到期，并取消对小费、加班费和社会保障福利的征税。哈里斯还支持不对小费征税的想法，但据报道正在考虑一些限制。

“她也在这么做，”塞伯格谈到不太可能实现的竞选承诺时说。“只是程度不同。”

特朗普还承诺让体外受精治疗免费，由政府或私人保险支付。但参议院共和党人在 9 月阻止了一项保证获得 IVF 服务并要求保险覆盖的法案。

南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆是特朗普最坚定的支持者之一，他说他更倾向于对 IVF 进行税收抵免。他反对取消对州和地方税收减免的上限。

“关于个人税收政策提案，我不同意其中的一些，”他谈到特朗普的承诺时说道。“但从大局来看，谁将在税收方面表现最好，我认为差距并不大。特朗普会胜出。”

斯普林菲尔德众议员理查德·尼尔是众议院筹款委员会负责税收事务的民主党高层，他开玩笑说，随着选举日临近，特朗普将承诺取消所有所得税。

“我并不感到惊讶，”他谈到特朗普的竞选承诺时说道。“而且还有六周的时间。”

题图：唐纳德·特朗普 8 月在拉斯维加斯谈到了他取消服务业员工小费税的提议。Ian Maule/Getty

附原英文报道：

There’s a hitch to some Trump campaign promises: Republicans in Congress aren’t thrilled about them

By Jim Puzzanghera Globe Staff,Updated September 30, 2024 

Donald Trump spoke in Las Vegas in August about his proposal to eliminate taxes on tips for service industry employees.Ian Maule/Getty

WASHINGTON — A key provision of the sweeping 2017 tax law that was Donald Trump’s signature legislative accomplishment as president limited the amount of state and local taxes people could deduct on their federal returns.

But at a recent campaign stop in the New York City suburbs where the cap is unpopular, Trump said he’ll remove the limit he signed into law if voters elect him again.

That promise, like some of his others recently, has a major problem: It’s unpopular among his fellow Republicans in Congress. Most of them enthusiastically supported the $10,000 cap, which saves the government tens of billions of dollars annually and hits hardest in high-tax, Democratic-run states like New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

“In some cases they’re throwing some stuff up against the wall to see what sticks. And I get it. It’s the crazy time of the year,” said Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, adding he’d require some convincing to support increasing the deduction limit, let alone eliminating it. “We’ll wait and see what happens after the election as to what actually gets put together in a proposal with enough support to become law.”

Candidates can get desperate in the final weeks of a close race, offering campaign promises that will be a stretch to fulfill. But Trump is unusual because some of the promises he’s tossed out to voters recently come with significant opposition from lawmakers in his own party — and that could make delivering them even more difficult.

“There’s a big difference between promising a chicken in every pot and actually delivering,” said Jaret Seiberg, a Washington financial policy analyst at investment bank TD Cowen. “And that’s where you could see Republicans in Congress take a different approach. Just because he says it doesn’t mean it happens.”

Seiberg doesn’t think Trump will be able to fulfill his promise on the state and local tax deduction or on another recent one: temporarily capping the interest rate on credit cards at 10 percent. The average rate for new customers is about 25 percent.

Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has a bill to cap credit card interest rates at 18 percent. He welcomed Trump’s promise while acknowledging it will be difficult to fulfill.

“The Democrats love it, but Republicans don’t,” Hawley said of his bill. He’s not sure how Trump came up with the 10 percent figure, which would be “a huge cut” compared to what people are paying now.

“Maybe just a number that resonates with people,” Hawley speculated. “I think probably the exact rate is not as important as the significance of a Republican presidential candidate saying we ought to have a cap nationally on credit card interest rates.”

Countering traditional Republican positions has worked for Trump in the past, Hawley said. He noted people were skeptical of Trump’s 2016 campaign promise to slap high tariffs on Chinese imports, which he implemented after he took office.

“It takes us back to why he won the 2016 primaries, precisely because he didn’t sound like everybody else on stage,” Hawley said. “And I think that’s some of that old energy that he’s tapped back into.”

But Trump failed to deliver on some major 2016 campaign promises, including building a border wall that Mexico would pay for and replacing the Affordable Care Act.

Republican strategist Kevin Madden said Trump’s “transactional” approach to politics is part of the deal Republicans agreed to when they made him their nominee again.

“He comes at it from a real estate magnate sales viewpoint, which is, ‘What do I got to do to make the sale?’ ” Madden said. “He’s looking at an electorate unconstrained by the sort of traditional guardrails of Republican policy.”

A Trump campaign spokesperson didn’t directly address how realistic the campaign promises are but said congressional Republicans are “united behind his candidacy” and would fall in line if Trump became president as they did before.

“In his first term, President Trump’s strong relationships with Republicans in the House and Senate helped him deliver historic tax relief, energy independence, a secure border, and peace through strength,” Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Democrats said they aren’t buying Trump’s promises.

“I have been in the fight to reduce the costs of banking and borrowing for consumers for decades now, and the Republicans have fought us every inch of the way,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, who helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over near-universal Republican opposition. “The idea that somehow he’s going to swoop in and be the big savior of consumers on banking costs just doesn’t align with reality.

“This is one more example of Donald Trump bumping straight into the fact that the things that Republicans have embraced and fought for are unpopular in much of the country, so he tries to have it both ways,” she said.

Trump’s opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has also made several campaign promises that will be difficult to fulfill, including providing $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers and a $6,000 tax credit for parents of newborns.

But most of her promises are popular among Democrats. They’re also less costly because Harris wants to increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy, Seiberg said. Trump wants to reduce the corporate tax rate, extend all the 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025, as well as eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. Harris also has endorsed the idea of not taxing tips, but reportedly is considering some limits.

“She’s doing it, too,” Seiberg said of long-shot campaign promises. “It’s just not to the same degree.”

Trump also has promised to make in vitro fertilization treatment free, paid for by the government or private insurance. But Senate Republicans in September blocked a bill that would guarantee access to IVF and require insurance coverage.

Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican and one of Trump’s strongest supporters, said he prefers a tax credit for IVF. And he opposes eliminating the cap on state and local tax deductions.

“On individual tax policy proposals, I disagree with some of them,” he said of Trump’s promises. “But on the big picture, who’s going to be best on taxes, I think it’s not even close. It’s going to be Trump.”

Representative Richard Neal of Springfield, the top Democrat on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, joked that Trump will promise to eliminate all income taxes as the race nears Election Day.

“I’m not surprised,” he said of Trump’s campaign promises. “And there’s still six weeks to come.”