初创企业融资会回来吗？

【中美创新时报2024 年 9 月 23日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）最近有迹象表明，尽管秋季寒冷来袭，但波士顿当地的初创企业市场可能正在升温。《波士顿环球报》记者亚伦·普雷斯曼（Aaron Pressman）对此作了下述报道。

初创企业生态系统依赖于风险投资融资周期——较新的公司从风险投资公司获得资金以推动增长，而较成熟的公司则上市或被收购，为风险投资公司及其投资者赚钱。

然而，自 2021 年达到顶峰以来，在利率上升和股市波动的背景下，这一周期在过去几年中放缓至缓慢。

最近有迹象表明，尽管秋季寒冷来袭，但当地的初创企业市场可能正在升温。

这是因为周期的后半段，即风险投资家所称的“退出”市场，活动日益增多。

这一切始于 7 月份，当时波士顿数据管理初创公司 Nasuni 被私募股权公司以 12 亿美元的价格收购。然后上周，萨默维尔网络安全公司 Recorded Future 被万事达卡以 27 亿美元的价格收购。

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两家生物技术初创公司，波士顿的 Bicara Therapeutics 和沃尔瑟姆的 Zenas BioPharma，上周通过首次公开募股筹集了总计 5.4 亿美元。致力于治疗肿瘤的 Bicara 的股价已经上涨了 30% 以上。瞄准自身免疫性疾病的 Zenas 股价上涨了 6%。

根据 PitchBook 的数据，仅这四笔交易的价值就超过了去年全年马萨诸塞州 30 亿美元的退出活动。这种恢复活动可能与美联储将很快降息的预期以及一些科技股价格的小幅回升有关。

这对新创业公司的融资来说可能是个好消息，自 2021 年以来，新创业公司的融资也急剧下降。

哈佛商学院教授 Josh Lerner 几十年来一直在研究创业公司和风险投资，他表示退出活动与新融资之间存在明显的联系。这是因为 IPO 和收购的资金会流回风险投资基金的投资者，例如养老基金和大学捐赠基金，然后这些投资者通常会将资金循环到新的风险投资基金中。他说，如果没有退出，新创业公司的资金就会减少。

“这导致了退出市场冻结会对新交易产生不利影响，因为风险投资集团对筹集新资金没有信心，”Lerner 说。

但并非所有市场观察人士都相信最近的活动预示着更广泛的复苏。尽管有两家生物科技股票首次亮相，但风险投资支持的公司的 IPO 市场仍然低迷，自去年秋天 Klaviyo 以来，没有一家本地科技公司上市。收购活动也远低于几年前的水平。

德勤的一项调查显示，今年到目前为止，生命科学、企业软件和人工智能相关应用领域的初创企业活动最为活跃。

“人们仍然保持谨慎乐观的态度，”德勤波士顿办事处的合伙人 B.J. Spence 表示，他与上市公司合作。他说，过去几年第三季度的退出数量有所增加，但这种现象并没有持续下去。“由于投资者继续采取谨慎的态度，尤其是在选举年，未来一年左右，情况可能不会像市场希望的那样好转。”

题图：Christopher Ahlberg，萨默维尔网络安全公司 Recorded Future 的创始人兼首席执行官，该公司被万事达卡以 27 亿美元收购。Craig F. Walker/Globe Staff

附原英文报道：

Is startup funding coming back?

By Aaron Pressman Globe Staff,Updated September 17, 2024

Christopher Ahlberg, founder and CEO of Somerville cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, which was bought by Mastercard for $2.7 billion.Craig F. Walker/Globe Staff

The startup ecosystem relies on a cycle of venture capital funding — newer companies receive money from VC firms to fuel growth, while more mature companies go public or get acquired to make money for the VC firms and their investors.

Since hitting a peak in 2021, however, the cycle slowed to a crawl over the past few years amid higher interest rates and stock market volatility.

Lately, signs are emerging that, despite the onset of autumn’s chill, the local startup market could be heating up.

That’s because the back half of the cycle, what VCs call the market for “exits,” has seen increasing activity.

It started in July when Boston data management startup Nasuni was acquired by private equity firms in a deal valued at $1.2 billion. Then last week Somerville cybersecurity firm Recorded Future was bought by Mastercard for $2.7 billion.

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And two biotech startups, Boston-based Bicara Therapeutics and Zenas BioPharma in Waltham, raised a total of $540 million in initial public stock offerings last week. Bicara, working on treating tumors, has already seen its share price jump more than 30 percent. The stock price of Zenas, which is taking aim at autoimmune disorders, is up 6 percent.

The value of those four deals alone exceeds the $3 billion of exit activity in Massachusetts all of last year, according to PitchBook data. The renewed activity could be related to expectations that the Fed will be lowering rates soon and the modest recovery in the prices of some tech stocks.

And that could be good news for funding new startups, which has also declined sharply since 2021.

Harvard Business School professor Josh Lerner, who has been studying startups and VC funding for decades, said there is a clear link between exit activity and new funding. That’s because money from IPOs and acquisitions flows back to investors in the VC funds, such as pension funds and university endowments, who then typically cycle the money into new VC funds. Without the exits, there’s less money for new startups, he said.

“This leads to a process where exit markets freezing up can adversely affect new deals, because VC groups aren’t confident about raising new funds,” Lerner said.

But not all market watchers are convinced the recent activity signals a broader recovery. Despite the two biotech stock market debuts, the IPO market remains depressed for VC-backed companies, and no local tech companies have gone public since Klaviyo last fall. Acquisition activity is also far below the levels of a few years ago.

So far this year, activity has picked up most for startups in life sciences, corporate software, and AI-related applications, according to a survey by Deloitte.

“The feeling remains one of cautious optimism,” said B.J. Spence, a partner in Deloitte’s Boston office who works with companies going public. The third quarter has seen a bump in exits the past few years that wasn’t sustained, he said. “With investors continuing to take a measured approach, particularly in an election year, things may not trend as up as the market would like for another year or so.”