哈里斯可能在缅因州的关键选区取得进展，威胁到特朗普入主白宫的道路
【中美创新时报2024 年 9 月 16 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）缅因州北部发生了一些令人不安的事情。虽然它的影响不如翻转整个摇摆州那么大，但民主党人对他们翻转一个国会选区的机会越来越乐观，该选区在 2016 年和 2020 年都只给了特朗普一张选举人票。《波士顿环球报》记者詹姆斯·平德尔（James Pindell）对此作了下述报道。
7 月，民主党候选人从乔·拜登转变为卡马拉·哈里斯，带来了热情、竞选资金的注入和民意调查的大幅提升。这一转变使民主党在全国和关键摇摆州陷入僵局，拜登似乎走上了失败的道路。
然而，基本面并没有改变。获得 270 张选举人票和总统职位的道路仍然取决于谁能赢得七个关键战场州。哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普都没有明显的优势。
这种情况可能即将改变。
缅因州北部发生了一些令人不安的事情。虽然它的影响不如翻转整个摇摆州那么大，但民主党人对他们翻转一个国会选区的机会越来越乐观，该选区在 2016 年和 2020 年都只给了特朗普一张选举人票。
如果发生这种情况，可能会关闭特朗普重返白宫的一条道路。
但首先，让我们快速回顾一下公民学。美国不像其他公职那样通过普选选举总统。在选举人团制度下，除两个州外，所有州都将所有选举人票投给赢得该州的候选人，即使只差一票。内布拉斯加州和缅因州是例外，这两个州将两票分配给全州获胜者，将一票分配给每个独立国会选区的获胜者。
对于政治爱好者来说，对一张选举人票的关注往往集中在奥马哈的一个选区，自 2008 年巴拉克·奥巴马赢得该选区以来，民主党一直表现良好。民意调查显示，拜登在退出之前以微弱优势赢得该选区，现在哈里斯以 7 个百分点的稳固领先优势获胜。换句话说，那个选区没有太大变化。
与此同时，缅因州第二国会选区的关注较少，特朗普在 2020 年以 7 个百分点的优势在该选区获胜，获得一张选举人票。拜登赢得了缅因州第一国会选区和全州选举，拿下了另外三个选区。
然而，上个月底新罕布什尔大学的一项民意调查显示，哈里斯现在在第二区领先，49% 对 44%，误差幅度为 3.1%。
然后，在周五，哈里斯竞选团队派出了迄今为止最大的代理人前往缅因州。副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹的妻子格温·沃尔兹出席了班戈和波特兰的活动。今年早些时候，民主党全国委员会主席杰米·哈里森也访问了该州。
“我们一直认为我们有机会扭转这个选区，但毫无疑问，自从卡马拉·哈里斯开始领先以来，我们又焕发了新的活力，”缅因州民主党主席贝夫·乌伦哈克说。“我们认为我们真的有机会。”
另一方面，共和党和特朗普竞选团队似乎把这个选区——包括缅因州西部、北部和东南部——视为理所当然。
“许多共和党人认为特朗普胜券在握，”共和党顾问布伦特·利特菲尔德说，他曾为前缅因州州长保罗·勒佩奇和最后一位在第二区获胜的共和党人布鲁斯·波利昆提供咨询。
利特菲尔德指出，该选区的民主党代表贾里德·戈尔登可能也持有这种假设。拜登退出前，戈尔登在一篇专栏文章中写道，他相信特朗普会赢得大选，并补充说他“对此没意见”。他还没有支持哈里斯。
实际情况反映了两党的信念。哈里斯竞选团队声称他们在该州有 21 个办事处和数十名工作人员，特别是在第二区。相比之下，特朗普在该州只有一个办事处，位于刘易斯顿。
尽管特朗普在 2016 年和 2020 年多次前往缅因州争取那张选举人票，但他和任何主要代理人今年都没有在那里竞选。
这可能很重要。至少在一种情况下，哈里斯和特朗普可能会以 269-269 的比分打成平手，如果两位候选人都没有在选举日获得该地区的多数票，那么缅因州的排序投票系统将在奥古斯塔重新计票，全国可能会悬而未决数天。
“是的，在这种情况下，所有人的目光都会集中在缅因州，”缅因州州务卿、民主党人 Shenna Bellows 表示。“但我们会做好准备。”
题图：在缅因州波特兰举行的总统辩论中，共和党总统候选人前总统唐纳德·特朗普（左）和民主党总统候选人副总统卡马拉·哈里斯出现在屏幕上，人们在观看。罗伯特·F·布卡蒂/美联社
附原英文报道：
Harris might be gaining ground in Maine’s key electoral district, threatening Trump’s path to White House
By James Pindell Globe Staff,Updated September 16, 2024
Republican presidential nominee former president Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris are seen on a screen during a presidential debate as people watched in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/Associated Press
The switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket in July has brought enthusiasm, an infusion of campaign cash, and a significant bump in polling. This shift has positioned Democrats in a dead heat nationally and in key swing states, where Biden appeared on a path to lose.
However, the fundamentals haven’t changed. The path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency still hinges on who can win seven key battleground states. Neither Harris nor former president Donald Trump has a clear advantage.
That may be about to change.
There’s something stirring in Northern Maine. While it’s not as impactful as flipping an entire swing state, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to flip a congressional district that awarded Trump a lone electoral vote in both 2016 and 2020.
If this happens, it could close one of Trump’s paths back to the White House.
But first, a quick civics refresher. The US doesn’t elect its president through a popular vote like other offices. Under the Electoral College system, all but two states give all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state, even if by just a single vote. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which allocate two votes to the overall state winner and one vote to the winner of each separate congressional district.
For political enthusiasts, attention on a single electoral vote has often focused on an Omaha-based district where Democrats have done well since Barack Obama carried it in 2008. Polls showed Biden narrowly winning there before he dropped out, and now Harris holds a solid seven-point lead. In other words, not much has changed in that district.
Meanwhile, less attention has been given to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where Trump won by 7 percentage points in 2020, earning a single electoral vote. Biden took the other three by winning Maine’s 1st Congressional District and the statewide vote.
However, a University of New Hampshire poll from late last month showed Harris now leading in the 2nd District, 49% to 44%, with a margin of error of 3.1% .
Then, on Friday, the Harris campaign sent its biggest surrogate yet to Maine. Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz, attended events in Bangor and Portland. Earlier this year, Democratic National Committee Chair Jamie Harrison also visited the state.
“We’ve always thought we had a chance to flip the district, but there’s no question that there’s renewed energy since Kamala Harris began leading the ticket,” said Maine Democratic Party Chair Bev Uhlenhake. “We think we have a real shot.”
On the other hand, Republicans and the Trump campaign seem to be taking the district—which includes western, northern, and DownEast Maine for granted.
“There’s a perception among many Republicans that Trump has it in the bag,” said Brent Littlefield, a Republican consultant who advised former Maine governor Paul LePage and Bruce Poliquin, the last Republican to win in the 2nd District.
Littlefield noted that this assumption may also be shared by Jared Golden, the Democratic representative for the district. Golden wrote in an op-ed before Biden dropped out that he believed Trump would win the election, adding that he was “OK with that.” He has yet to endorse Harris.
The lay of the land reflects what both parties believe. The Harris campaign claims they have 21 offices in the state and dozens of staffers, particularly in the 2nd District. In contrast, Trump has just one office in the state, located in Lewiston.
Despite Trump making repeated trips to Maine in 2016 and 2020 to secure that single electoral vote, neither he nor any major surrogates have campaigned there this year.
This could matter. In at least one scenario, Harris and Trump could end up tied at 269-269, and the nation might be left in suspense for days as Maine’s ranked-choice voting system re-tallies votes in Augusta if neither candidate secures a majority in the district on Election Day.
“Yes, all eyes would be on Maine in that scenario,” said Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat. “But we will be ready.”
