现在怎么办？特朗普被定罪对选举意味着什么
【中美创新时报2024 年 5 月 31 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）前总统唐纳德·特朗普在曼哈顿法庭上被定罪，这不仅因为这是历史性的新颖性，还因为这可能对五个多月后的总统竞选产生影响。底线是：直接影响充其量是模糊的。《波士顿环球报》记者詹姆斯·平德尔（James Pindell）对此作了下述新闻评述。
显而易见，判决后当然拜登总统比特朗普好，特朗普现在必须担心刑期和可能的上诉程序。没有人想被判重罪。
话虽如此，2024 年的总统竞选将为美国人提供与过去两次总统竞选相同的选择，即选举特朗普，全世界都知道这个人的道德准则存在严重缺陷。他结过三次婚，喜欢有外遇，六次申请破产，因种族歧视与政府达成和解，吹嘘自己对女性实施性侵犯，并承认自己不是一个特别好的父亲。
2016 年的选民知道这一切，但还是选了他。2020 年，他几乎再次当选，因为选民知道他贿赂色情明星掩盖外遇的指控。到目前为止，每个州的共和党选民在得知他因四起不同的刑事案件被起诉后，都投票提名他。
换句话说，虽然特朗普的有罪判决具有历史意义和严肃性，但可能直接改变的是能够准确地称他为“重罪犯唐”或类似标签的电视广告。此外，特朗普可能会筹集大量资金，因为他的支持者对他们认为不公平的政治起诉感到愤怒。
至于仍有待争夺的选民，他们的决定可能会取决于其他事项。毕竟，经济、边境安全和堕胎权是竞选中的首要问题。其他问题在过去两次选举中发挥了更大的作用，那么这次为什么不呢？
更有趣的是，马凯特法学院上周的一项全国民意调查发现，如果特朗普无罪释放，他将领先拜登 6 个百分点。如果特朗普被定罪，拜登将领先 5 个百分点。
特朗普可能面临另外三项刑事审判，包括指控他试图干预佐治亚州 2020 年总统大选、他旨在阻止国会在 2021 年 1 月 6 日履行职责以及他窃取机密材料。
在纽约的案件中，特朗普面临 34 项伪造商业记录的指控，这些指控与收买色情明星 Stormy Daniels 的沉默有关，后者声称她在特朗普结婚期间与他发生了自愿性行为。特朗普声称他没有授权付款，并否认他与她发生过性关系。
民主党人曾寄予厚望，认为特朗普的封口费审判将成为总统竞选的转折点，尽管这并非四起针对他的案件中最严重的一起。
与此同时，拜登可以展示总统的成就，同时与内阁一起在全国范围内筹集资金。对于尚未决定的选民来说，民主党人认为政治形势很明确——他们需要一场胜利。
但在前总统再次参选并接受审判长达七周之后，情况并非如此。民意调查显示，特朗普在全国和关键摇摆州保持着对拜登的微弱领先优势。特朗普的竞选团队在四月份筹集的资金甚至首次超过拜登，尽管他本月大部分时间都被困在法庭上。
竞选已经停滞数月，即使是占据有线电视新闻近两个月的刑事审判也没有改变这一现状。事实上，在陪审团审议期间，有报道强调共和党团结在特朗普身后，而民主党人则担心拜登的前景。
自审判开始以来，特朗普在关键摇摆州的领先优势并没有减弱，但在内华达州、宾夕法尼亚州和佐治亚州，特朗普的支持率明显有所增加，尽管这在民调的误差范围内。
审判、辩论和大会都是可能出现势头转变的时刻。（当然，最后五个月仍可能出现意外。）
因此，拜登竞选团队在日历上圈出了 6 月 27 日，即与特朗普进行第一场辩论的日期。也许到时候会发生一些大事。或者，就像许多没有改变竞选民调结果的新闻发展一样，也许不会。
题图：前总统唐纳德·特朗普周四被定罪是美国的历史性时刻。MARK PETERSON/美联社
附原英文报道：
What now? Here’s what Trump’s conviction means for the election.
By James Pindell Globe Staff,Updated May 30, 2024
Former president Donald Trump’s conviction on all 34 charges in a Manhattan courtroom was watched around the globe not just for the historic novelty of it all, but also for the potential implications for the presidential race, just over five months away.
Here is the bottom line: The direct implications are murky at best.
To state the obvious, it is better to be President Biden after the verdict than Trump, who now must worry about sentences and a likely appeal process. No one wants to be found guilty of a felony.
That said, the 2024 presidential race will offer Americans the same option as in the last two presidential contests to elect Trump, a man the world knows has a deeply flawed moral compass. He has been married three times, relished having affairs, has filed for bankruptcy on his businesses six times, settled with the government over racial discrimination, bragged about committing sexual assault against women, and admitted to not being a particularly good father.
Voters in 2016 knew all that and elected him anyway. In 2020, he was nearly reelected again with voters aware of the allegations that he paid off a porn star to cover up an affair. Republican voters in every state so far have voted to nominate him even after learning he had been indicted in four separate criminal cases.
In other words, while Trump’s guilty verdict is historic and somber, all that is likely to directly change are television ads that can accurately declare him “Felon Don” or some similar label. That and Trump will likely raise a boatload of money as his base gets furious at what they see as an unfair political prosecution.
As for the voters who are still up for grabs, their decision will likely rest on other matters. After all, the economy, border security, and abortion rights are the top issues in the campaign. Other issues factored larger in the last two elections so why wouldn’t they this time?
More interestingly, a Marquette Law School national poll last week found that if acquitted, Trump would lead Biden by 6 percentage points. If Trump were convicted, Biden would lead by 5 points.
Trump potentially faces three other criminal trials, including allegations he attempted to interfere with the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, that he aimed to prevent Congress from doing its job on Jan. 6, 2021, and that he stole classified materials.
In the New York case, Trump faced 34 charges of falsifying business records related to buying the silence of Stormy Daniels, a porn star who claimed she had consensual sex with Trump while he was married. Trump claimed he didn’t authorize the payment and denied he had sex with her.
Democrats had high hopes that Trump’s hush-money trial, though not the most damning of the four cases against him, would mark a turning point in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, Biden could showcase presidential accomplishments while fund-raising nationwide with his Cabinet. For undecided voters, Democrats believed the politics were clear — they needed a win.
But after seven unprecedented weeks of a former president on trial while running again, it didn’t work out that way. Trump maintained a slim national lead over Biden and in key swing states, according to polls. Trump’s campaign had even raised more money than Biden did for the first time in April, even though he was confined to a courtroom for most of the month.
The race has been stuck for months, and even a criminal trial dominating cable news for nearly two months didn’t change that. In fact, as the jury deliberated, stories highlighted the Republican Party coalescing behind Trump while Democrats worried about Biden’s prospects.
Since the trial began, Trump’s lead in key swing states hasn’t diminished, but in the case of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Trump’s apparent support has grown, though within the polling margin of error.
The trial, debates, and conventions are all moments for possible momentum shifts. (Of course, surprises could still emerge in the final five months.)
As such, the Biden campaign has circled June 27 on the calendar, the date of the first debate with Trump. Maybe something huge will happen then. Or, as is the case of so many news developments that didn’t change the race’s polling, maybe not.
