不经常观看福克斯的共和党人支持特朗普的可能性较小
【中美创新时报2024年3月24日讯】（记者温友平编译）从非保守派主流媒体获取新闻的共和党人比关注保守派媒体的共和党人支持唐纳德·特朗普的可能性更小。 根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民意调查，第一组中有相当多的人认为特朗普的行为有犯罪行为。《纽约时报》记者露丝·伊吉尔尼克（Ruth Igielnik）对此作了下述报道。
这种分歧可能会影响他在普通选民中共和党人中的地位——这是一个与共和党初选选民截然不同的群体。这与研究结果一致，研究表明改变福克斯新闻消费者的媒体习惯实际上可能会改变他们的观点。
在我们的民意调查中，100% 的自称从福克斯新闻或其他保守派来源获得新闻的共和党人表示，他们打算在大选中支持特朗普。这与主要媒体来源是 CNN 和主要新闻机构的共和党人形成鲜明对比：79% 的人计划投票给特朗普，13% 的人表示计划投票给总统乔·拜登。
从许多指标来看，主流媒体共和党人对特朗普的支持度较低。与保守派媒体共和党人相比，他们对特朗普作为党内提名人表示热情的可能性要低 20 个百分点，而表示特朗普的政策对他们个人有帮助的可能性则要低 30 个百分点以上。
尽管人们认为大多数共和党人都会观看福克斯新闻，但表示自己从 CNN 和主要报纸等来源获取新闻的共和党人比例与表示自己主要消费保守派媒体的比例相似 — 各占大约 30%。
这些共和党人与保守派媒体消费者的主要区别在于他们的意识形态：他们更有可能将自己描述为政治温和派。妮基·黑莉 (Nikki Haley) 在这些共和党人中获得了约 30% 的支持，在保守派媒体消费者中获得了 4% 的支持（该民意调查是在黑莉退出竞选之前进行的）。
研究人员长期以来一直在思考保守主义和保守媒体之间的一种先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题：观看更保守的媒体会改变你的观点，还是因为你的观点而更容易被它吸引？ 加州大学伯克利分校的大卫·布鲁克曼和耶鲁大学的约书亚·卡拉这两位政治学家进行了一项实验，试图回答这个问题。
布鲁克曼说：“我们从其他研究中得知，许多福克斯新闻观众都处于回声室之中，而且相当保守。” “有很多人怀疑强大的党派无法被说服，我们想挑战这个假设。”
在他们的实验中，他们随机分配福克斯新闻观众观看 CNN 一个月，将他们切换到该网络后的政治观点与未切换的福克斯观众进行比较。结果？ 让保守派新闻观众观看主流新闻，导致许多参与者在移民和种族关系等问题上放弃了极右观点。 他们发现参与者对特朗普的评价发生了变化。
“令人惊讶的是，研究参与者通过观看 CNN 了解了有关世界的新事实，”卡拉说。“这些人不信任 CNN；他们认为这是宣传和虚构。
“事实上，他们发现这些人尤其了解这个世界的新东西，这表明他们比我们想象的更愿意说服和听取对方的意见。”
参与者不仅在移民等问题上采取了温和的观点，而且还采取了温和的态度。他们还开始质疑自己对福克斯新闻本身的信任。研究结束时，受访者不太可能同意这样的说法：“如果唐纳德·特朗普做了坏事，福克斯新闻就会对此进行讨论。”
像这样的实验在现实世界中几乎没有什么应用，但它们确实强化了这样一种观念，即保守派新闻观众通过不同的视角看待当前的政治格局。
这也延伸到共和党人如何看待本党提名人面临的刑事指控。12月的一项调查显示，消费非保守派主流媒体的共和党人更有可能表示，对特朗普的指控是合法的，特朗普故意做出有关选举被窃取的虚假指控，并且他应该在华盛顿的选举干预审判中被判有罪。 。
在最近的调查中，两类共和党人之间的差距仍然存在。观看主流媒体的共和党人认为特朗普有犯罪行为的可能性是观看保守派媒体的共和党人的三倍多。主流媒体共和党人表示这一观点的比例在过去两年中有所增长，在 12 月份达到了 43% 的峰值。现在已降至 34%。
20 岁的俄亥俄州立大学政治学学生布里安娜·邓巴 (Briana Dunbar) 表示，“我确实认为，隐瞒私人文件或许是为了传播这些文件，在某种程度上是叛国行为。”她说，她正在考虑在秋天支持特朗普。 “如果他被判有罪，我不会投票给他。
“但我不是法官，这不取决于我，”邓巴补充道，她说她的大部分新闻都是从美国广播公司新闻或政治学课程中获得的。 “一旦裁决下来，我就会相信他们所说的。如果他无罪，我可能会投票给他。但十一月还有很长的路要走。”
虽然这些主流媒体共和党人中有相当一部分表示他们不打算支持特朗普，但许多人最终可能决定在 11 月投票给他。2016年，在臭名昭著的“走进好莱坞”录音带中，特朗普吹嘘猥亵女性后，党内许多人考虑抛弃他。甚至大多数选民也找到了回到本党提名人身边的方法。
在保守派媒体共和党人中，认为特朗普没有犯罪的比例基本保持不变。
56 岁的纳泰莎·弗里森 (Nateasha Friesen) 来自加利福尼亚州弗雷斯诺，她热衷于阅读 Newsmax 和《大纪元时报》等新闻媒体，她说这些新闻媒体“不是告诉我该想什么，而是让我做出明智的决定”。
“我对收到的信息进行三角测量，重点是弄清楚它们的来源以及它们提供的透明度，”她说。
弗里森计划在秋季支持特朗普。“我对此的看法一直非常稳定：他没有犯下任何罪行。我非常有信心这些试验是出于政治动机。”
大约 10% 的独立人士表示他们观看保守派新闻，几乎所有人都表示他们倾向于共和党。
接受调查的一小部分共和党人（约 13%）主要从社交媒体获取新闻。这个群体对特朗普的支持率与那些消费保守派媒体的人一样高，但他们更倾向于同意主流媒体共和党人认为特朗普犯了罪。尽管如此，该组织仍认为这些指控主要是出于政治动机。
但这些社交媒体共和党人比其他共和党人年轻得多。他们也不太可能表示计划在 11 月投票。
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院于 2024 年 2 月 25 日至 28 日对全国 980 名登记选民进行了现场采访，通过手机和固定电话进行了民意调查。总统选票选择问题的抽样误差范围为正负 3.5 登记选民中的百分点。
本文最初发表于《纽约时报》。
题图：前总统唐纳德·特朗普一月份参加了福克斯新闻市政厅活动。HAIYUN JIANG/NYT
附原英文报道：
Republicans who do not regularly watch Fox Are less likely to back Trump
By Ruth Igielnik New York Times,Updated March 23, 2024
Republicans who get their news from nonconservative mainstream media outlets are less likely to support Donald Trump than those who follow conservative outlets. And sizable numbers from the first group say they think Trump acted criminally, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
This division could affect his standing among Republicans in the general electorate — a decidedly different group from GOP primary voters. That is in line with research that shows that changing the media habits of Fox News consumers may actually change their views.
In our poll, 100% of the Republicans who said they got their news from Fox News or other conservative sources said they intended to support Trump in the general election. This stands in contrast to Republicans whose main media sources are outlets like CNN and major news organizations: 79% of them plan to vote for Trump, and 13% said they planned to vote for President Joe Biden.
And across many measures, mainstream media Republicans are less supportive of Trump. They are 20 percentage points less likely than conservative media Republicans to say they are enthusiastic about Trump as the party’s nominee and more than 30 percentage points less likely to say Trump’s policies have helped them personally.
Despite the perception that most Republicans watch Fox News, the share of Republicans who said they got their news from sources like CNN and major newspapers was similar to the share who said they primarily consumed conservative media — roughly 30% in each case.
These Republicans differ from consumers of conservative media primarily in terms of their ideology: They were much more likely to describe themselves as politically moderate. Nikki Haley had about 30% support among these Republicans and 4% among conservative media consumers (the poll was taken before Haley dropped out of the race).
Researchers have long pondered a kind of chicken-and-egg question with conservatism and conservative media: Does watching more conservative media change your views, or are you more attracted to it because of your views? Two political scientists, David Broockman at the University of California, Berkeley and Joshua Kalla at Yale University, conducted an experiment trying to answer that question.
“We know from our other research that many Fox News viewers are in an echo chamber and are quite conservative,” Broockman said. “There’s a lot of skepticism that strong partisans could not be persuaded, and we wanted to challenge that assumption.”
In their experiment, they randomly assigned Fox News viewers to watch CNN for a month, comparing their political views after they switched to the network with Fox viewers who did not make the switch. The result? Getting conservative news viewers to watch mainstream news caused many of the participants to shift away from hard-right views on a number of issues like immigration and race relations. And they found changes in how participants evaluated Trump.
“It was amazing to see that the study participants learned new facts about the world from watching CNN,” Kalla said. “These are people who don’t trust CNN; they think it’s propaganda and fiction.
“The fact that they find that these people, in particular, learn something new about the world suggests that they’re more open to persuasion and hearing the other side than we might assume.”
Participants did not just move toward moderate views on issues like immigration; they also started to question their trust in Fox News itself. At the end of the study, respondents were less likely to agree with the statement: “If Donald Trump did something bad, Fox News would discuss it.”
Experiments like this have little real-world application, but they do reinforce the notion that conservative news viewers see the current political landscape through a different lens.
This extends to how Republicans are thinking about the criminal charges their party’s nominee faces. Republicans who consume nonconservative mainstream media were more likely to say that the charges against Trump were legitimate, that Trump knowingly made false claims about the election being stolen and that he should be found guilty in the election interference trial in Washington, according to a December survey.
And in the recent survey, the gap between the two types of Republicans persists. Republicans who watch mainstream media are more than three times as likely to say Trump acted criminally as those who consume conservative media. And the share of mainstream media Republicans saying this has grown over the last two years, reaching a peak of 43% in December. It is now down to 34%.
“I do think that concealing private documents with perhaps the intent to disseminate them is to an extent treason,” said Briana Dunbar, 20, a political science student at Ohio State who says she is considering supporting Trump in the fall. “If he is found guilty, I will not vote for him.
“But I’m not the judge, and it’s not up to me,” added Dunbar, who said she gets most of her news from ABC News or her political science classes. “Once the ruling comes down, I will trust what they say. If he’s not guilty, that’s probably who I would vote for. But November is a ways away.”
While a notable share of these mainstream media Republicans say they do not plan to back Trump, many could ultimately decide to vote for him in November. In 2016, after the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump was recorded boasting about groping women, many in the party considered deserting him. Even most of those voters found a way back to their party’s nominee.
Among conservative media Republicans, the share who said Trump did not commit crimes has remained largely unchanged.
Nateasha Friesen, 56, of Fresno, California, is an avid consumer of news from places like Newsmax and The Epoch Times, news outlets that she says are “not the media telling me what to think and instead allowing me to make an educated decision for myself.”
“I triangulate the information that I’m getting, with a focus on figuring out what their sources are and the transparency that they’re providing,” she said.
Friesen plans to support Trump in the fall. “My views on this have been very steady: He has not committed any crimes. I’m pretty confident the trials are politically motivated.”
About 10% of independents say they watch conservative news, and nearly all of them say they lean toward the Republican Party.
A much smaller group of Republicans surveyed — around 13% — primarily got their news from social media. This group supported Trump at a rate as high as those consuming conservative media, but they were more inclined to agree with mainstream media Republicans that Trump committed crimes. Still, this group saw the charges as primarily politically motivated.
But these social media Republicans were far younger than other Republicans. They were also less likely to say they planned to vote in November.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error for the presidential ballot choice question is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among registered voters.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
