【中美创新时报2025 年 1 月 20日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在整个竞选过程中都誓言要实施“美国历史上最大的驱逐计划”，包括“第一天”将数百万移民“送回他们应该去的地方”，并且“不计成本”。但随着他从竞选过渡到白宫，特朗普的团队正面临移民政策的严酷现实：说起来容易做起来难。《纽约时报》记者Zolan Kanno-Youngs、Hamed Aleaziz 和 Robert Jimison对此作了下述报道。
在公开讲话和与国会议员的私下谈话中，特朗普的移民团队承认，他对大规模驱逐的渴望既昂贵又耗时。
据一位参加会议的国会议员称，特朗普移民议程的设计者、他挑选的副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒周三与国会共和党人会面，就移民执法的期望和需求“设定一个水平”。
特朗普挑选的负责监督驱逐出境的汤姆·霍曼告诉共和党人，要采取分阶段的方式，首先优先考虑有犯罪记录的人，而不是在全国范围内扫荡任何法律地位不确定或有争议的移民。他还明确表示，这些努力确实需要付出代价，称他们需要国会批准数十亿美元的额外资金来实施这些努力。
这对国会来说是一项艰巨的任务，因为共和党在国会中占微弱多数，而民主党几乎肯定会反对为大规模驱逐行动提供资金。一些议员预计，在对那些最容易驱逐的人进行第一波驱逐后，特朗普将在任期的剩余时间里与国会就更多资金进行讨价还价。
“国会需要为这次驱逐行动提供资金，”霍曼在 12 月告诉福克斯商业新闻。“这将是昂贵的，每个人都关注它到底有多贵。”
特朗普仍会想方设法引起人们对他早期打击行动的关注，比如在总统任期的头几天关注民主党领导的城市的驱逐行动或工作场所突袭。霍曼在 11 月出现在小唐纳德·特朗普的播客上时表示，公众应该期待移民行动能带来“震撼和敬畏”。
但最近他的高级顾问降低了预期，承认特朗普雄心勃勃的移民目标，包括驱逐数百万非法入境者，可能会面临严重的财政和后勤挑战。
虽然特朗普的团队曾考虑尝试使用公共卫生措施封锁与墨西哥的边境，但他可能面临挑战，无法说服公共卫生当局和法院，让他们相信移民过境对国家构成了公共卫生紧急情况，近年来，这两方都对这一说法持怀疑态度。
特朗普还可以利用拜登总统支持的《移民和国籍法》中的一项条款，进一步打击越境行为。但特朗普在 2018 年试图利用这项法律阻止非法越境的寻求庇护者，并被旧金山的一名联邦法官阻止。
为了进行大规模驱逐，特朗普必须增加移民代理人的雇佣，并确保使用更多飞机来驱逐数百万移民。
他将需要找到一种方法来克服一些人所说的“庇护城市”的规定——这些城市拒绝将警方拘留的移民移交给联邦移民当局。
即便如此，移民专家表示，特朗普的驱逐目标可能需要四年以上的时间才能实现。
“这需要时间，”前移民和海关执法局驱逐官员约翰·法布里卡托雷 (John Fabbricatore) 说，他一直支持特朗普的驱逐计划。他说，ICE 官员会立即开始工作，但“让我们有一些现实的期望。”
ICE 也不知道美国境内有争议或不确定身份的 1200 万至 1400 万移民中的每一个人在哪里。为了进行大规模逮捕，该机构需要追踪地址并进行监视。
可以肯定的是，仅凭特朗普激烈的移民言论，就已经成功为他的总统任期赢得了支持，并将移民政治转向右翼。去年的一项民意调查显示，大约 55% 的美国人表示希望看到美国减少移民，这一数字较 2023 年的 44% 大幅增加。过去一年，民主党人接受了共和党人曾经吹捧的限制性边境安全措施。一些民主党州长、当选州长和候选人表示，他们愿意在移民问题上考虑与特朗普进行潜在合作的领域。
“美国人民以压倒性优势再次选举了特朗普总统，赋予他权力履行他在竞选期间做出的承诺，例如驱逐移民罪犯和恢复我们的经济强大，”特朗普发言人卡罗琳·莱维特在一份声明中表示。“他会兑现的。”
霍曼告诉共和党人，他相信新政府最终会兑现特朗普的驱逐令。他说，新政府将毫不犹豫地驱逐非法入境但有美国出生孩子的父母。
特朗普的团队还计划重新指派其他联邦特工，并委派共和党控制的各州自愿派遣的当地警察和国民警卫队成员协助驱逐工作。在与特朗普的顾问会面后，共和党人还讨论了将国土安全部预算中的其他资金转移到移民执法上。
“他们能用现有资源做到这一点吗？也许可以，也许不行，”特朗普前任 ICE 代理主任兼边境巡逻队负责人罗纳德·V·维蒂耶洛 (Ronald V. Vitiello) 说。“该部门也可以重新分配现有预算。”
“我认为他们会在第一天开始行动，”他补充道，“但他们能实现有史以来最大规模的行动吗？这可能还需要一些时间。”
特朗普上任时承诺在全国范围内进行突袭，驱逐数百万移民，这让许多长期抱怨资源有限的 ICE 官员感到震惊。他取得了好坏参半的结果。
2019 年，ICE 遣返了超过 267,000 人，这是特朗普政府执政期间遣返人数最多的一年。但与奥巴马总统执政期间遣返人数最多的一年相比，这一数字相形见绌，奥巴马总统一年遣返了超过 400,000 人。
目前，由于资金限制，该机构每天遣返人数约为 40,000 人；大多数被美国遣返的移民都会被拘留一段时间。该机构只有 20,000 名员工，其中约三分之一是遣返官员。
在美国社区内，ICE 的行动需要大量资源，官员会针对移民进行遣返和拘留，而且通常需要进行大量研究。从美国当地监狱中挑选目标效率要高得多，但需要那些一直不愿与 ICE 合作的进步城市的更多合作。
在 2024 财年，ICE 遣返了超过 271,000 人，这是奥巴马政府执政以来遣返人数最多的一年。
海关和边境保护局前政策顾问特蕾莎·布朗表示，特朗普将从霍曼的经验中受益。
“霍曼实际上曾经做过这件事，他试图设定期望，而不是空谈，”布朗说。“我们仍然会看到有人被捕，有人被驱逐出境。他们会大张旗鼓。几个月后会有数百万人被驱逐出境吗？不太可能。”
本文最初发表于《纽约时报》。
题图：美墨边境。John Moore/Getty
附原英文报道：
Ahead of Day 1, Trump’s team works to temper expectations on immigration
By Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Hamed Aleaziz and Robert Jimison New York Times,Updated January 19, 2025, 5:49 p.m.
The US-Mexico border.John Moore/Getty
President-elect Donald Trump vowed throughout his campaign to carry out the “largest deportation program in American history,” including a “Day 1” effort to send millions of immigrants “back home where they belong,” and putting “no price tag” on the effort.
But as he transitions from the campaign to the White House, Trump’s team is encountering a harsh reality of immigration policy: Easier said than done.
In public remarks and private conversations with members of Congress, Trump’s immigration team has conceded that his aspirations for mass deportations will be both costly and time-consuming.
Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s immigration agenda and his pick to be deputy chief of staff, met with congressional Republicans on Wednesday for a “level setting” of expectations and needs for immigration enforcement, according to a congressional member who participated in the meeting.
Tom Homan, Trump’s pick to oversee the deportations, has told Republicans to expect a phased approach that first prioritizes those with a criminal record, rather than a national sweep of any immigrant with uncertain or contested legal status. And he has made clear there is, indeed, a price tag for the efforts, saying they will need Congress to approve billions of additional dollars to carry them out.
That is a tall order on Capitol Hill, where Republicans hold slim majorities and Democrats are all but certain to oppose the funding of a mass deportation effort. Some lawmakers expect that after an initial wave of deportations of those easiest to remove, Trump will spend the rest of his time in office haggling with Congress over money for more.
“Congress needs to fund this deportation operation,” Homan told Fox Business in December. “It’s going to be expensive, and everybody is focused on how expensive it’s gonna be.”
Trump will still find ways to call attention to his early efforts to crack down, such as spotlighting deportations in Democratic-led cities or worksite raids in the first days of his presidency. While appearing on Donald Trump Jr.’s podcast in November, Homan said the public should expect immigration action that creates “shock and awe.”
But the recent tempering of expectations by his top advisers is an acknowledgment that Trump’s ambitious immigration goals, including deporting millions of people in the country illegally, are likely to face serious financial and logistical challenges.
While Trump’s team has considered trying to use a public health measure to seal off the border with Mexico, he could face challenges in persuading public health authorities and the courts that migrant crossings pose a public health emergency to the nation, a claim that both have treated with skepticism in recent years.
Trump could also use a provision in the Immigration and Nationality Act that President Biden embraced to further crack down on border crossings. But Trump tried to use the law in 2018 to block asylum-seekers who crossed the border illegally and was blocked by a federal judge in San Francisco.
For his mass deportations, Trump must surge the hiring of immigration agents and secure access to more airplanes to remove millions of immigrants.
He will need to find a way to overcome rules in what some call “sanctuary cities” — those that refuse to hand over immigrants detained by police to federal immigration authorities.
Even then, Trump’s deportation goals are likely to take more than four years, according to immigration experts.
“It takes time,” said John Fabbricatore, a former Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportation official who has been supportive of Trump’s deportation plans. He said ICE officers would immediately get to work, but “let’s have some realistic expectations.”
ICE also does not know where each of the estimated 12 million to 14 million immigrants with contested or uncertain status in the United States are. In order to conduct mass arrests, the agency would need to track down addresses and conduct surveillance.
To be sure, Trump’s fiery immigration rhetoric alone has already achieved success building support for his presidency and shifting the politics of immigration to the right. Roughly 55 percent of Americans said in a poll last year they wanted to see immigration reduced in the United States, a sharp increase from 44 percent who said the same in 2023. Democrats in the past year have embraced restrictive border security measures once touted by Republicans. Some Democratic governors, governors-elect and candidates have said they are willing to consider areas of potential cooperation with Trump when it comes to immigration.
“The American people reelected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness,” Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump said in a statement. “He will deliver.”
Homan has told Republicans that he is confident the new administration will eventually make good on Trump’s deportation mandate. He has said the new administration will not hesitate to deport parents who are in the country illegally but have US-born children.
Trump’s team also has plans to reassign other federal agents and deputize local police officers and members of the National Guard voluntarily contributed by Republican-run states to help with the deportation efforts. After meeting with Trump’s advisers, Republicans have also discussed transferring other funding in the Department of Homeland Security budget to fund immigration enforcement.
“Can they do it with existing resources? Maybe, maybe not,” said Ronald V. Vitiello, Trump’s former acting director of ICE and Border Patrol chief. “The department can reallocate existing budgets as well.”
“I think they’re going to start on Day 1,” he added, “but are they going to achieve the largest ever? That might take some more time.”
Trump promised nationwide raids to deport millions of immigrants when he was last in office, shocking many of his own ICE officials who long complained about limited resources. He achieved mixed results.
In 2019, ICE removed more than 267,000 people — the highest annual total during the Trump administration. That pales in comparison to the high mark that occurred under President Barack Obama, who deported more than 400,000 people in one year.
Right now, the agency detains around 40,000 people on any given day, because of funding limitations; most immigrants deported from the United States spend some time in detention. And the agency only has 20,000 employees, about a third of whom are deportation officers.
ICE operations within US communities, in which officers target and detain immigrants, are resource-intensive and often require extensive research. Picking up targets from local US jails is much more efficient, but requires increased cooperation from progressive cities that have shunned working with ICE.
In the 2024 fiscal year, ICE removed more than 271,000 people, the highest total since the Obama administration.
Theresa Cardinal Brown, a former policy adviser for Customs and Border Protection, said Trump will benefit from Homan’s experience.
“Homan, being the one who’s actually done this before, is trying to set expectations as opposed to rhetoric,” Cardinal Brown said. “We’ll still see people picked up and people deported. They’ll make a big show of things. Is it going to be millions in a few months? Unlikely.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
