特朗普表示，他将废除《通胀削减法案（IRA）》。这会减缓马萨诸塞州的能源转型吗？
【中美创新时报2024 年 11 月11 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）报一位专家表示，即将上任的特朗普政府可能会让新兴的清洁能源和清洁技术行业“窒息”。对此，《波士顿环球报》记者
Erin Douglas 和 Aaron Pressman作了下述报道。
当选总统唐纳德·特朗普并不认为气候变化是个问题，他希望政府停止将钱花在他所谓的“骗局”和“骗局”上。现在的问题是，他是否会——甚至能够——阻止清洁能源行业的势头，该行业在拜登总统的领导下获得了大量资金注入。
当特朗普在一月份重新入主白宫时，他会发现一个国家正在重新调整电网以适应清洁能源，部署电动汽车，并建造风力涡轮机和太阳能发电场。
但即将上任的特朗普政府可能会试图阻止联邦政府为气候行动拨付未动用的资金，并撤销减少碳排放的规定，从而大大减缓这一转变。专家表示，这两种策略都有可能在地球的关键时刻让美国在气候目标上落后，并损害新兴的气候技术和清洁能源行业。
拜登政府于 2022 年通过了《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act），这是美国历史上规模最大的旨在遏制气候变化的支出计划。它批准了数千亿美元的联邦贷款、补助金和税收减免，以推动清洁能源行业的发展。
ABI Research 能源解决方案研究分析师 Daniel Burge 表示，特朗普政府带来的不确定性可能会让新兴的清洁能源和清洁技术行业“窒息”，这些行业面临着来自中国和欧洲竞争对手的激烈竞争。
“这是一个年轻的行业，需要稳定，”Burge 说。“其他国家在其行业背后获得了更大的推动力。”
哥伦比亚大学法学院的专家估计，在拜登任期结束前，IRA 中为全国气候相关补助计划分配的 1050 亿美元中约有四分之三将已经使用或承诺使用。不过，至少还有 140 亿美元尚未分配。
特朗普在竞选期间承诺“终止”IRA 并撤销气候法中未动用的资金，称其为“历史上最大的骗局”。特朗普竞选团队没有回应置评请求。
特朗普没有提出一项抑制排放的计划，而是承诺增加石油、天然气和煤炭产量。他在与民主党候选人副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的总统辩论中还表示，风能和太阳能开发占用了太多土地。
保守派团体批评该法案对于其所谓的目标——降低通胀——无效。传统基金会的《2025 项目》报告是特朗普第二任期备受争议的保守派蓝图，该报告呼吁撤销 IRA 资金，正如特朗普在竞选期间承诺的那样，并废除其税收补贴。
《2025 项目》报告称：“下一届政府应该……推动立法，全面废除税法中最近通过的补贴，包括对绿色能源公司的数十项抵免和税收减免。”
据州政府官员称，马萨诸塞州已从 IRA 获得超过 10 亿美元的补助和税收抵免。
州长 Maura Healey 周三表示：“这些是真正造福我们州的变革性立法。”他指的是拜登政府通过的 IRA 和其他联邦基础设施支出计划，这些计划将有利于清洁能源转型。“我们希望努力确保这种情况继续下去。”
根据气候倡导组织 Climate Power 的分析，由于该法律的实施，马萨诸塞州至少创造了 500 个清洁能源工作岗位，包括电工、机械师、建筑工人、技术人员等。
IRA 让美国走上了更快的减排轨道——速度是之前的两倍甚至三倍——并为能源转型带来的经济效益注入了巨大的热情。
气候科学家表示，现在是美国重新配置建筑、住宅、企业和交通基础设施以防止更多温室气体排放的关键时刻。气候科学家警告说，这一转变必须在本十年内成形，否则地球将面临更严重、不可挽回的变化。
Pitchbook 的数据显示，在拜登执政期间，开发气候技术解决方案的马萨诸塞州初创公司筹集了超过 120 亿美元的风险投资，而特朗普第一任期内筹集的资金仅为 20 亿美元。
在马萨诸塞州，IRA 还通过电动汽车税收抵免和改造房屋以提高能源效率为消费者提供储蓄。
普林斯顿大学工程学助理教授杰西·詹金斯表示，即便如此，美国仍未实现到 2030 年将排放量减少一半、到 2050 年实现“净零”排放（不增加新排放量）的目标。
詹金斯说：“总统并没有致力于进一步加快这一进程，我们只能等着看最近的成果能否在废除之前得到保护。”
无论华盛顿发生什么，希利都承诺坚持马萨诸塞州的气候目标，她已将其作为执政的核心。
希利说：“我们全速前进，不会松开油门。”
Sublime Systems 是一家位于萨默维尔的企业，使用电力而非化石燃料生产水泥。该公司从《通货膨胀削减法案》获得了 8700 万美元，用于在霍利奥克建造一个示范工厂，现场工作目前正在进行中。该公司首席执行官兼联合创始人 Leah Ellis 表示，这笔拨款“真的很重要”，因为这家初创公司试图说服行动迟缓的建筑业转向其更环保的产品。
但从政治前景来看，“存在很多不确定性、怀疑和恐惧，”Ellis 说。
例如，特朗普政府可能会试图废除对电动汽车的税收减免，或者试图阻止尚未出台的气候支出。此外，马萨诸塞州尚未拨出该州从 2021 年基础设施法案中获得的约 6000 万美元用于建设电动汽车充电站，这是拜登政府通过的另一项重大支出法案。
美国电气制造商协会公共事务高级副总裁 Spencer Pederson 表示，他担心 IRA 的所有条款都可能“被砍掉”。该贸易集团将向国会提出理由，关闭清洁能源的补助、贷款和税收减免渠道只会损害美国制造业。
“这些规定将国内制造业带回了美国，”佩德森说。“它们创造了就业机会，并帮助加强了我们的国内能源经济。”
一些人乐观地认为，IRA 的好处将证明共和党人不会放弃。
“这些资金中有很多都流向了共和党地区，这些地区获得了巨大的经济利益，”美国大学公共管理和政策系讲师保罗·布莱索说，他曾担任比尔·克林顿总统领导下的白宫气候变化工作组的通讯主任。“我只是对 [特朗普] 终止 IRA 的能力或意愿表示怀疑。”
政策专家还表示，停止国会已经批准的支出在后勤上可能很困难。
“但这并不是说他们不会尝试，”哥伦比亚大学法学院萨宾气候变化法中心执行主任迈克尔·伯格说。
特朗普表示，他希望恢复总统先前的一项阻止支出的权力，即扣押，尽管这项权力在 1974 年被国会撤销。当时，理查德·尼克松总统拒绝为他反对的政府项目发放国会拨款。
联邦法律律师、Holland & Knight 合伙人罗伯特·布拉德纳 (Robert Bradner) 表示，特朗普政府可能会尝试恢复这项权力。然而，曾在政府任职十多年的布拉德纳表示，大多数法律学者认为总统有义务分配这笔资金。
不过，专家表示，即使是尝试也足以吓跑企业并阻碍进展。
“特朗普政府阻碍 [气候行动] 的最大能力可能就是放慢速度，”伯格说。“政府可能只是想让事情停滞不前。”
题图：波士顿罗克斯伯里第一栋无化石燃料中层公寓的太阳能电池板。Jonathan Wiggs/Globe Staff
附原英文报道：
Trump said he’d repeal the IRA. Could that slow Massachusetts’ energy transition?
The incoming Trump administration could be “suffocating” for emerging clean energy and clean tech industries, one expert said.
By Erin Douglas and Aaron Pressman Globe Staff,Updated November 9, 2024
Solar panels on the Boston’s first fossil-fuel-free mid-rise apartment in Roxbury.Jonathan Wiggs/Globe Staff
President-elect Donald Trump doesn’t think climate change is a problem and wants the government to stop spending money on what he’s called a “hoax” and a “scam.” Now, the question is whether he will — or even can — stop the momentum for a clean energy industry that got a big infusion of cash under President Biden.
When Trump retakes the White House in January, he’ll find a country retooling its electric grids to accommodate clean power, deploying electric vehicles, and constructing wind turbines and solar farms.
But the incoming Trump administration could significantly slow that transition by attempting to block unspent federal dollars for climate action and by rolling back rules to cut carbon emissions. Both tactics would further risk putting the US behind on its climate goals at a critical moment for the planet and hurt the emerging climate tech and clean energy sectors, experts said.
The Biden administration in 2022 passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest spending package in US history focused on curbing climate change. It authorized hundreds of billions of dollars in federal loans, grants, and tax breaks to turbocharge the clean energy industry.
The uncertainty brought by a Trump administration could be “suffocating” for emerging clean energy and clean tech industries, which face strong competition from rivals in China and Europe, said Daniel Burge, an energy solutions research analyst at ABI Research.
“It’s a young sector, which needs stability,” Burge said. “Other countries have had much more push behind their sectors.”
About three-quarters of the $105 billion allocated for climate-related grant programs nationwide included in the IRA will already be spent or committed before the end of Biden’s term, experts at Columbia University Law School estimated. Still, at least $14 billion remains unallocated.
Trump promised on the campaign trail to “terminate” the IRA and rescind unspent funds from the climate law, calling it the “greatest scam in history.” The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump has not put forward a plan to curb emissions, instead promising to increase oil, gas, and coal production. He also said during a presidential debate with democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris that wind and solar energy developments take up too much land.
Conservative groups have criticized the legislation as ineffective for its titled goal — reducing inflation. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 report, the controversial conservative blueprint for a second Trump term, called for rescinding IRA funds, as Trump promised during the campaign, and for repealing its tax subsidies.
“The next Administration should … push for legislation to fully repeal recently passed subsidies in the tax code, including the dozens of credits and tax breaks for green energy companies,” the Project 2025 report said.
Massachusetts has received more than $1 billion in grants and tax credits from the IRA, according to state officials.
“These are transformative pieces of legislation that are really benefiting our state,” Governor Maura Healey said Wednesday, referring to the IRA and other federal infrastructure spending packages passed under Biden that will benefit the clean energy transition. “We want to work to make sure that continues.”
At least 500 clean energy jobs for electricians, mechanics, construction workers, technicians, and more were created in Massachusetts as a result of the law, according to an analysis by Climate Power, a climate advocacy group.
The IRA put the US on a much faster track for cutting emissions — double or even triple the pace it had been on prior — and injected a big burst of enthusiasm for the economic benefits from energy transition.
Climate scientists say it’s beyond crunch time for the US to reconfigure buildings, homes, businesses, and transportation infrastructure to prevent more greenhouse gas emissions. This transition must take shape this decade, climate scientists warn, or the planet risks much worse and irreparable changes.
During the Biden administration, Massachusetts-based startups developing climate tech solutions have raised more than $12 billion of venture capital, compared with $2 billion during Trump’s first term, according to data from Pitchbook.
In Massachusetts, the IRA also provides savings for consumers through tax credits for electric vehicles and retrofitting homes to be more energy efficient.
Even so, the US is behind on its targets to cut emissions in half by 2030 and achieve “net zero” emissions — no new emissions added — by 2050, said Jesse Jenkins, an assistant professor of engineering at Princeton University.
“Instead of a president committed to further accelerating that progress, we are left waiting to see how well the recent gains can be defended against repeal,” Jenkins said.
Regardless of what happens in Washington, Healey promised to stay the course on Massachusetts’ climate goals, which she has made a centerpiece of her administration.
“We are full steam ahead and we are not taking our foot off the pedal,” Healey said.
Sublime Systems, a Somerville business that makes cement with electricity instead of fossil fuels, received $87 million from the Inflation Reduction Act for a demonstration plant in Holyoke, with site work now underway. Leah Ellis, chief executive and cofounder of the company, said the grant was “a really big deal” as the startup tries to convince the slow-moving construction industry to switch to its greener product.
But looking to the political horizon, “there’s a lot of uncertainty, doubt, and fear,” Ellis said.
The Trump administration could try to repeal the tax breaks on electric vehicles, for example, or attempt to block climate spending that hasn’t already gone out the door. Also, Massachusetts has yet to award any of the roughly $60 million for building EV charging stations the state got from the 2021 infrastructure law, another big spending bill passed under Biden.
Spencer Pederson, senior vice president of public affairs for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, said he’s worried all the provisions of the IRA are potentially “on the chopping block.” The trade group will make the case to Congress that closing the pipeline of grants, loans, and tax breaks for clean energy will only hurt American manufacturing.
“These provisions have brought domestic manufacturing back to the United States,” Pederson said. “They’ve created jobs, and they’ve helped strengthen our domestic energy economy.”
Some are optimistic that the benefits of the IRA will prove too good for Republicans to give up.
“A lot of this money is going into Republican areas that are seeing tremendous economic benefit,” said Paul Bledsoe, lecturer at American University’s Department of Public Administration and Policy who was the director of communications for the White House Climate Change task force under President Bill Clinton. “I’m simply skeptical about [Trump’s] ability or willingness to fulfill ending the IRA.”
Policy experts also said that stopping spending already authorized by Congress is likely to be logistically difficult.
“But that’s not to say that they won’t try,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School.
Trump has said he wants to restore a previous presidential power to block spending, known as impoundment, even though that power was revoked by Congress in 1974. At the time, President Richard Nixon had refused to release congressionally appropriated funds for government programs he opposed.
It’s possible the Trump administration could try to revive it, said Robert Bradner, a federal law attorney and partner at Holland & Knight. However, most legal scholars think the president is obligated to distribute the money, said Bradner, who previously spent more than a decade in government.
Still, even an attempt could be enough enough to spook businesses and stall progress, experts said.
“Perhaps the greatest ability that a Trump administration will have to gum up [climate action] is really just to slow things down,” said Burger. “The administration may just seek to grind things to a halt.”
