欧洲缺少一位特朗普新时代的强势领导人
【中美创新时报2024 年 11 月 11日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）唐纳德·特朗普重返总统宝座可能意味着欧洲将经历一段孤独而危险的时期，欧洲已经深陷经济停滞，并被东家门口的战争所困扰。欧洲领导人一致认为，欧洲大陆最大的两个经济体需要重新发挥强有力的领导作用。《纽约时报》记者Jim Tankersley 和 Aurelien Breeden 对此作了下述报道。
但法国和德国，也是欧盟最重要的国家，正在努力响应这一号召。他们自己也成为了帮助特朗普在美国保守派和摇摆选民中获得支持的同一政治力量的牺牲品。其中包括：对消费者价格快速上涨的强烈反对；对移民增加的焦虑和愤怒；以及公众对政治精英的信任迅速消失。
主流政党的支持率不断下降。民粹主义者和民族主义者，包括曾经的边缘极右翼政党，都出现了激增。
在经过数月关于税收、支出以及如何最好地重振德国经济的内斗之后，德国总理奥拉夫·舒尔茨上周解雇了任性的财政部长，从而破坏了他的执政联盟。德国似乎正走向提前选举，这很可能会让舒尔茨下台。
一个极右翼政党和一个新民粹主义政党在最近的地区选举中取得了进展，特朗普的胜利可能会进一步提升他们在即将到来的联邦选举中对主流政党的可信度。
在法国，总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在今年宣布提前选举的灾难性决定之后，他的权力逐渐减弱。投票后，法国花了数月时间才组建政府，导致议会下院几乎陷入僵局，并产生了一个与极右翼和左翼势力对抗的摇摇欲坠的联盟。
从巴黎到柏林的不确定性造成了欧洲大陆的权力真空，这可能会让俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争中更加大胆。如果特朗普明年迅速采取行动对美国进口产品征收高额关税，这可能会削弱欧洲应对全球贸易战的能力。
这可能会进一步扰乱欧洲领导人制定共同政策的努力，以保护其工业免受大量低成本中国进口产品（包括电动汽车和其他清洁能源技术）的冲击。
这可能会使本已困难的政治任务变得更加复杂，即增加欧洲军费开支，领导人和分析人士一致认为，在特朗普不时威胁退出北约或以其他方式撤回美国对欧洲盟友的安全保障的情况下，这项任务将变得更加紧迫。
还有其他更稳定的领导人，他们在欧洲的作用可能会扩大，以应对危机。但他们也有自己的麻烦。
今年夏天当选英国首相的凯尔·斯塔默已经因公众对他和妻子接受的礼物的强烈抗议而受到伤害——他的国家不属于欧盟。
意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼是一位民粹主义者，她可能会与特朗普建立密切的关系——或者她可能会发现她在国际事务和对乌克兰的支持方面的相对中立态度与特朗普的立场不一致。
分析人士一致认为，领导一个更加独立、强大的欧洲的最自然人选需要来自柏林或巴黎，而这两个地方目前正是最麻烦的地方。
“随着德国联盟的崩溃，以及法国专注于其内部的政治分歧，法德领导层显然存在危机，”巴黎的德国马歇尔基金会主席亚历山德拉·德·胡普·谢费尔说。“这是欧洲和国际舞台上的一个障碍。”
华盛顿大西洋理事会欧洲中心高级主任约恩·弗莱克表示，法国和德国正遭受“自找的”政治危机，而特朗普的当选又为欧洲的未来增添了巨大的不确定性。
“我们正面临一种更具挑战性的关系，”他说。“情况可能会先恶化，然后才会好转。”
马克龙和肖尔茨上周承认了这一困难，但没有提供他们如何应对的线索。
马克龙周四在匈牙利布达佩斯举行的欧洲领导人峰会开幕式上表示，特朗普“是美国人民选出的，他将捍卫美国人民的利益——这是合法的，也是一件好事。”“问题是，我们准备好捍卫欧洲人的利益了吗？”
他补充说，世界是由食草动物和食肉动物组成的，“如果我们决定继续食草，食肉动物就会获胜。”
舒尔茨周四向记者发表讲话，承认他决定驱逐财政部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳 (Christian Lindner) 以结束联盟的时机具有挑战性，因为林德纳已经开始削弱政府的经济议程。
舒尔茨和他的联盟可能不会在明年秋季的定期选举中继续任职，而是很可能在 3 月面临选民——而舒尔茨似乎很可能会失去总理职位。
“我本希望你们不必做出这个艰难的决定，尤其是在这种不确定性日益增加的时期，”舒尔茨说。
但他补充说：“我们必须比以往任何时候都更加团结欧洲，继续共同投资于我们自己的安全和实力。因为形势很严峻。”
本文最初发表于《纽约时报》。
题图：10 月 18 日，德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨（右）在柏林总理府与法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙握手。RALF HIRSCHBERGER/AFP via Getty Images
附原英文报道：
Missing in Europe: a strong leader for a new Trump era
By Jim Tankersley and Aurelien Breeden New York Times,Updated November 10, 2024
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) shook hands with French President Emmanuel Macron at the chancellery in Berlin on Oct. 18.RALF HIRSCHBERGER/AFP via Getty Images
BERLIN — Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could spell a lonely and dangerous stretch for Europe, which is already mired in economic stagnation and rattled by war on its eastern doorstep. It is a moment that European leaders agree demands renewed and forceful leadership from the continent’s two largest economies.
But France and Germany, which are also the European Union’s most important countries, are struggling to answer the call. They themselves are falling victim to the same political forces that helped Trump gain popularity among conservatives and swing voters in the United States. Among them: backlash against rapid consumer price increases; anxiety and anger over increased immigration; and the rapid erosion of public trust in political elites.
Mainstream political parties have bled support. Populists and nationalists, including once-fringe parties on the far right, have surged.
After months of infighting over taxes, spending, and how best to reinvigorate Germany’s economy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz scuttled his governing coalition this past week by firing his wayward finance minister. The country appears headed toward early elections, which seem likely to oust Scholz from power.
A far-right party and a new populist party gained ground in recent regional elections, and Trump’s victory could further boost their credibility against mainstream parties in the coming federal election.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron has seen his power wane in the aftermath of a calamitous decision to call snap elections this year. It took France months to form a government after that vote, which left the lower house of parliament in near deadlock and yielded a shaky coalition clinging to power against the far-right and the left.
The uncertainty from Paris to Berlin has created a continental power vacuum that may embolden Russia in its war in Ukraine. It threatens to hobble Europe’s ability to respond to a global trade war if Trump moves quickly next year to impose hefty taxes on imports to the United States.
It is likely to further muddle European leaders’ efforts to forge a common policy to shield their industries from a surge of low-cost Chinese imports, including electric cars and other clean-energy technologies.
And it could complicate the already difficult political task of ratcheting up European spending on the military, which leaders and analysts agree will take on new urgency amid Trump’s intermittent threats to pull out of NATO or otherwise pull back US security guarantees for European allies.
There are other, more stable leaders whose roles in Europe could grow to meet the crisis. But they have complications of their own.
Keir Starmer, who was elected prime minister of Britain this summer, has already been bruised by public outcry over gifts he and his wife accepted — and his country is not in the European Union.
Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, is a populist who could forge a close relationship with Trump — or who could find her relatively centrist approach to international affairs and support for Ukraine at odds with Trump’s positions.
Analysts agree the most natural fits to lead a more independent, muscular Europe would need to come from Berlin or Paris, the very places now most troubled.
“There is a very clear crisis of Franco-German leadership that is intensifying with the collapse of the German coalition, and with France self-absorbed by its own internal political divisions,” said Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, the president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Paris. “And that’s a handicap on the European and international stage.”
Jörn Fleck, a senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said France and Germany were suffering from “self-inflicted” political crises just as Trump’s election added large new uncertainties to Europe’s future.
“We’re looking at a much more challenging relationship,” he said. “Things might get worse quickly before they get better.”
Macron and Scholz acknowledged that difficulty this past week but offered few clues for how they might rise to meet it.
Trump “was elected by the American people, and he’s going to defend the interests of the American people — that’s legitimate and a good thing,” Macron said Thursday, at the opening of a summit of European leaders in Budapest, Hungary. “The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans?”
The world is made of herbivores and carnivores, he added, and “if we decide to remain herbivores, the carnivores will win.”
Scholz, addressing reporters Thursday, acknowledged the challenging timing of his decision to kill his coalition by expelling his finance minister, Christian Lindner, who had begun to undercut the government’s economic agenda.
Instead of staying in office through next fall’s regularly scheduled elections, Scholz and his coalition will now probably face voters in March — and Scholz appears likely to lose the chancellorship.
“I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision, especially in times like these when uncertainty is growing,” Scholz said.
But, he added: “We must stick together in Europe more than ever and continue to invest together in our own security and strength. Because the situation is serious.”
