民意调查显示，特朗普在阳光地带战场上表现出实力迹象

【中美创新时报2024 年 9 月 24 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）根据《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院的最新民意调查，阳光地带各地的选民表示，唐纳德·特朗普担任总统时改善了他们的生活——并担心卡马拉·哈里斯的白宫不会这样做——这为三个关键州的异常激烈的竞争奠定了基础。《纽约时报》记者亚当·纳戈尔尼、露丝·伊吉尔尼克和卡米尔·贝克（Adam Nagourney, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker）对此作了下述报道。

民调显示，特朗普在亚利桑那州取得领先，在佐治亚州保持领先，这两个州他在 2020 年输给了拜登总统。但在北卡罗来纳州，自 2008 年以来从未投票给民主党人，哈里斯仅以微弱优势落后于特朗普。

这三个州的民调于 9 月 17 日至 21 日进行，进一步证明，在一个严重分裂的国家，总统竞选正成为历史上最激烈的竞选之一。

自劳动节以来，亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州是特朗普和哈里斯竞选团队关注的七个战场州之一。哈里斯在中西部的几个关键州表现出相对实力，而对她成为总统的希望最为关键的是宾夕法尼亚州。

但亚利桑那州现在对哈里斯的竞选活动构成了挑战，拜登在 2020 年以略高于 10,400 票的优势赢得了该州。民调显示，特朗普以 50% 对 45% 的优势领先。 《时代》/锡耶纳 8 月份的一项民意调查显示，哈里斯领先 5 个百分点。拉丁裔选民似乎已经不再支持哈里斯，尽管有相当多的人（10%）表示他们现在还没有决定。特朗普从那里的分票中获益：虽然哈里斯落后，但民意调查显示民主党参议员候选人领先。

在北卡罗来纳州，特朗普在 2020 年以不到 75,000 票的优势获胜，这位前总统以微弱优势领先哈里斯，获得了 49% 的选票，而哈里斯获得了 47% 的选票。（这项民意调查主要是在有报道称共和党州长候选人马克·罗宾逊在色情论坛上发表了令人不安的帖子之前进行的，一些共和党人担心这可能会损害特朗普在该州的支持率。）而在佐治亚州，拜登在 2020 年以不到 11,800 票的优势获胜，特朗普继续以 49% 比 45% 的微弱优势领先哈里斯。每个州的误差幅度在 4 到 5 个百分点之间。

民意调查发现，该地区的选民担心自己的未来和国家的未来，这表明特朗普在辩论中说的“我们的国家正在迷失，我们是一个失败的国家”的黑暗竞选言论可能会引起一些选民的共鸣。多数人表示，国家的问题非常严重，有失败的危险。共和党人比民主党人更有可能持有这种不确定的未来观点，比例为 72% 对 16%。

“无论我们现在走哪条路，在我看来，都不会有好结果，”41 岁的泰勒·斯坦布里奇 (Tyler Stembridge) 说道，他是佐治亚州森特维尔的一名消防队长，也是一名共和党人，他说他在 2020 年投票支持特朗普，并打算在 11 月再次支持他。

一项惊人的发现是，在特朗普因参与 2021 年 1 月 6 日美国国会大厦骚乱而被众议院以“煽动叛乱”罪名弹劾近四年后，受访者对特朗普和哈里斯谁能更好地处理民主问题的看法分歧很大。

但有迹象表明这些竞争仍悬而未决，亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州约 15% 的选民表示自己尚未决定或尚未明确决定，这让他们仍有可能改变主意。这群选民在 8 月份在这些州倾向于哈里斯，但现在略微倾向于特朗普。

最新一轮《时代/锡耶纳》民意调查是在哈里斯本月与特朗普辩论以来，民主党人的支持率和热情激增之际进行的。哈里斯在这三个州对特朗普的支持率继续远高于拜登退出前。《时代/锡耶纳》上周的一项民意调查发现，哈里斯在宾夕法尼亚州领先特朗普 4 个百分点，与辩论前持平。双方竞选团队都将该州视为选举中最重要的战场。

分析人士表示，尽管这三个阳光地带州吸引了特朗普和哈里斯阵营的大量关注，但北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州对于这位前总统重返白宫的希望尤其重要。哈里斯即使输掉这三个州也可能获胜，尽管这很困难。

对于许多犹豫不决且容易被说服的选民来说，性格是一个迫切的问题，这对特朗普来说可能是一个挑战。约三分之一的选民表示他们对特朗普的性格和行为感到担忧，另有 9% 的人对他的诚实和道德表示担忧。约 7% 的犹豫不决或表示仍可能改变主意的选民表示担心特朗普可能对民主构成威胁。

对特朗普性格的担忧在北卡罗来纳州最为明显，44% 的犹豫不决或表示仍可能改变主意的选民特别提到了他的行为，包括反复无常的行为和古怪的言论。

总体而言，45% 的受访者表示特朗普担任总统期间的政策对他们有帮助，34% 的受访者表示这些政策对他们有害。

民意调查发现，42% 的潜在选民表示哈里斯的政策会伤害他们，而 37% 的人表示这些政策会帮助他们。

本文最初发表于《纽约时报》。

题图：周一，泰德·迪克（左）、帕姆·伯恩海默（前中）和大卫·伯恩海默（后中）排队参加在宾夕法尼亚州印第安纳州埃德弗莱体育馆举行的共和党总统候选人前总统唐纳德·特朗普的集会。丽贝卡·德罗克/美联社

附原英文报道：

Trump shows signs of strength in Sun Belt battlegrounds, polls find

By Adam Nagourney, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker New York Times,Updated September 23, 2024 

Thad Dick, left, Pam Burnheimer, front center, and David Burnheimer, back center, stood in line to attend a rally with Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at Ed Fry Arena in Indiana, Pa., Monday.Rebecca Droke/Associated Press

Voters across the Sun Belt say Donald Trump improved their lives when he was president — and worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not — setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College.

The polls found that Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Harris trails Trump by just a narrow margin.

The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17-21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.

Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are on the roster of seven battleground states where the focus of both the Trump and Harris campaigns has been since Labor Day. Harris has shown relative strength in several key states across the Midwest and, most critically to her hopes of becoming president, Pennsylvania.

But Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now presents a challenge for the Harris campaign. Trump is ahead, 50 percent to 45 percent, the poll found. A Times/Siena poll there in August found Harris leading by 5 percentage points. Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Harris, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided. And Trump is benefiting from ticket splitting there: While Harris is trailing, the poll shows that the Democratic candidate for Senate is ahead.

In North Carolina, which Trump won by under 75,000 votes in 2020, the former president has a slim lead over Harris, drawing 49 percent of the vote compared with 47 percent for Harris. (The poll was mostly conducted before reports that Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor there, had made disturbing posts in a pornography forum, which some Republicans fear could hurt Trump in the state.) And in Georgia, a state that Biden won by just under 11,800 votes in 2020, Trump continues to have a slight lead over Harris, 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error in each state is between 4 and 5 percentage points.

The polls found that voters in this part of the country were worried about their own future and the future of the nation, suggesting that Trump’s dark campaign rhetoric — “Our country is being lost, we’re a failing nation,” he said in the debate — could be resonating with some voters. A plurality said the nation’s problems were so bad that it was in danger of failing. Republicans were much more likely to hold that unsettled view of the future than Democrats, 72 percent to 16 percent.

“Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well,” said Tyler Stembridge, 41, a fire captain in Centerville, Georgia, and a Republican who said he voted for Trump in 2020 and intended to support him again in November.

In one striking finding, nearly four years after Trump was impeached by the House for “incitement of insurrection” for his role in the rioting of Jan. 6, 2021, at the US Capitol, respondents were evenly divided over the question of whether Trump or Harris would do a better job handling democracy.

But in one sign of how these contests remain up for grabs, about 15 percent of the electorate in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina described themselves as undecided or not definitely decided, leaving open the possibility that they could still change their minds. This group of voters had leaned toward Harris in these states in August but now lean slightly more toward Trump.

The latest round of Times/Siena polls comes as Harris has enjoyed a surge of contributions and enthusiasm among Democrats since her debate with Trump this month. And Harris continues to fare much better against Trump in the three states than Biden did before he dropped out. A Times/Siena poll last week found Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, unchanged since before the debate. Both campaigns view that state as the most important battleground of the election.

While these three Sun Belt states have drawn a great deal of attention from both the Trump and Harris camps, North Carolina and Georgia are especially essential to the former president’s hopes of returning to the White House, analysts say. Harris could win even while losing all three of these states, though it would be difficult.

For many undecided and persuadable voters, character was a pressing concern, and that could be a challenge for Trump. Around a third of these voters said they had concerns about Trump’s personality and behavior, with another 9% expressing concerns about his honesty and ethics. About 7 percent of voters who were undecided or said they could still change their mind voiced concerns about Trump as a potential threat to democracy.

Concerns about Trump’s character loomed largest in North Carolina, where 44 percent of voters who were undecided or said they could still change their mind specifically cited his behavior, including erratic behavior and outlandish comments.

Overall, 45 percent of respondents said Trump’s policies as president had helped them, and 34 percent said they had hurt them.

The polls found that 42 percent of likely voters said Harris’ policies would hurt them, compared with 37 percent who said they would help them.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.