求职者涌入推高马萨诸塞州失业率

【中美创新时报2024 年 9 月 4 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）求职活动正在升温，而招聘活动正在降温。经过长期的停滞，马萨诸塞州的可用劳动力数量再次增长。《波士顿环球报》专栏作家Larry Edelman 对此作了下述报道。

尽管裁员人数仍然很少，但越来越多的新求职者将马萨诸塞州的失业率推高至四年来的最高水平。失业率——7 月份为 3.5%，高于 2023 年 4 月大流行后的低点 2.9%——包括下岗工人以及已经开始或恢复寻找工作的人。

根据美联储的数据，对工人的需求是健康的，但不再像去年那样过热。如果雇主继续缩减规模，裁员可能会加速，并增加经济衰退的风险。很多人可能会被冷落。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示：“我们不希望也不欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。”

新闻：根据美国劳工统计局经季节性调整后的数据，该州的劳动力（有工作的人和积极寻找工作的人）在 7 月份增加到 383 万人，为 2020 年初以来的最高水平。

根据马萨诸塞州立大学多纳休研究所和波士顿联邦储备银行之间的研究合作项目 MassBenchmarks 的经济学家的说法，首次求职者和重返劳动力市场的人们正在推动就业扩张，尽管这也反映了就业的温和增长。

重要性：在“大辞职潮”中，雇主很难填补职位空缺，这是由疫情引发的海啸，工人纷纷退休、换工作或只是暂时休假。

劳动力市场在 2023 年中期之前基本处于停滞状态。劳工统计局的数据显示，今年劳动力市场出现好转，截至 7 月，已有近 79,000 人进入劳动力市场。相比之下，去年全年只有 17,000 人进入劳动力市场。

这缓解了该州严重的劳动力紧缺问题，但雇主表示，寻找具备所需技能的工人仍然是一项挑战。

“与我交谈的小企业主表示，他们仍然很难找到合适的工人，”全国独立企业联合会州主任克里斯·卡洛齐 (Chris Carlozzi) 表示。

推动趋势：尽管该州成年人口变化不大，但经济学家对劳动力增长的恢复提出了几种理论。

经济学家、MassBenchmarks 高级特约编辑艾伦·克莱顿-马修斯 (Alan Clayton-Matthews) 表示，有些人已经花光了政府发放的新冠救济金的积蓄。

他说，在两个成年人的家庭中，一个人可能会重返工作岗位，“以缓冲可能影响主要收入来源的劳动力市场疲软”。

波士顿联邦储备银行研究部副总裁、经济学家杰弗里·汤普森表示，马萨诸塞州的工人外流可能正在逐渐减少，一些疫情时期的外籍人士可能会回来。与此同时，一部分最近退休的人可能决定再次寻找工作。

仔细观察：克莱顿-马修斯对过去两年该州劳动力的人口统计分析显示，男性和女性、黄金年龄工人（25-54 岁）、老年工人（55 岁及以上）和拥有学士学位或更高学位的工人的劳动力数量都有所增加。

到目前为止，跨越美墨边境的移民涌入尚未出现在政府的劳动力增长数据中。

“几乎没有证据表明移民是今年快速增长的根源，因为增长完全来自白人、非西班牙裔居民人口，”克莱顿-马修斯说。

注意事项：波士顿联邦储备银行的汤普森警告称，劳动力参与率的上升可能只是昙花一现。

随着更多数据的出现，政府会定期更新劳工统计数据。有时变化很大，比如劳工部上周宣布，月度报告夸大了截至 3 月的 12 个月全国就业增长 818,000 个工作岗位。

“[劳动力] 情况可能会因修订而改变，”汤普森说。

还值得一提的是，尽管今年该州劳动力的增长速度快于全国平均水平，但自疫情最严重以来的相对增长速度要小得多。

“我们仍在追赶其他州，”马萨诸塞州纳税人基金会主席道格·豪盖特 (Doug Howgate) 表示。

最后的想法：由于担心经济降温以及总统大选结果可能引发混乱的斗争，这里和全国各地的雇主都变得更加谨慎。

今天的求职者很可能成为明天的新员工。这种情况是否发生以及发生的速度将是经济能否持续的重要指标。

附原英文报道：

Influx of job hunters pushes Massachusetts unemployment rate higher

After a long period of stagnation, the state’s pool of available workers is growing again

By Larry Edelman Globe Columnist,Updated September 3, 2024

Job hunting is heating up just as hiring is cooling off.

A growing number of new job seekers has pushed unemployment in the state to the highest level in four years even as layoffs remain modest. The jobless rate — which stood at 3.5 percent in July, up from a postpandemic low of 2.9 percent in April 2023 — counts laid-off workers as well as people who have started or resumed looking for work.

Demand for workers is healthy but no longer overheated like it was last year, according to the Federal Reserve. If employers keep scaling back, layoffs could accelerate and boost the risk of a recession. A lot of people could be left out in the cold.

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said last week.

The news: The state’s labor force — people with a job and those actively seeking one — rose to 3.83 million in July, the most since the start of 2020, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

First-time job seekers and people reentering the workforce are driving the expansion, though it also reflects modest gains in employment, according to economists at MassBenchmarks, a research collaboration between the UMass Donahue Institute and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Why it matters: Employers struggled to fill positions amid the “Great Resignation,” a pandemic-triggered tsunami of workers retiring, trading up for better jobs, or simply taking a hiatus.

The labor force mostly stagnated until the middle of 2023. The turnaround gathered steam this year, with nearly 79,000 people jumping into the labor pool through July, BLS data show. That compares with just 17,000 entrants in all of last year.

That has eased the state’s severe labor squeeze, though employers say finding workers with the skills they need remains a challenge.

“The small-business owners I talk to say they are still finding it difficult to find the right worker,” said Chris Carlozzi, state director of the National Federation of Independent Business.

Driving the trend: Economists offer several theories for the renewed labor force growth despite minimal change in the state’s adult population.

Some people have run through their savings from the government’s COVID relief checks, said economist Alan Clayton-Matthews, senior contributing editor at MassBenchmarks.

In two-adult households, one person may be returning to work “as a cushion against a weakening labor market that may be affecting the primary earner,” he said.

The outflow of workers from Massachusetts may be tapering off, and some pandemic-era expats may be coming back, according to economist Jeffrey Thompson, a vice president in the Boston Fed’s research department. Meanwhile, a segment of recent retirees may have decided to seek employment again.

A closer look: A demographic breakdown of the state’s labor force over the past two years by Clayton-Matthews shows increases among men and women, prime-aged workers (25–54 years old), older workers (55 years old and above), and workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

The influx of migrants across the US-Mexico border hasn’t shown up so far in the government data on labor force gains.

“There is very little evidence for immigration being the source of the recent rapid growth this year, since the growth is entirely in the white, non-Hispanic resident population,” Clayton-Matthews said.

Caveats: The Boston Fed’s Thompson warns the reported run-up in labor force participation may be fleeting.

The government regularly updates labor statistics as additional data become available. Sometimes the changes are substantial, such as the Labor Department’s announcement last week that monthly reports overstated national job growth by 818,000 jobs for the 12 months ending in March.

“The [labor force] picture could be altered by revisions,” Thompson said.

It’s also worth pointing out that while the state’s labor force has expanded more quickly than the national average this year, the relative increase since the depths of the pandemic has been much smaller.

“We’re still catching up with other states,” said Doug Howgate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.

Final thought: Employers here and across the country have turned more cautious amid concerns about the cooling economy and prospects for a chaotic fight over the results of the presidential election.

Today’s job hunters may well become tomorrow’s new hires. If and how fast that happens will be an important indicator of how the economy is holding up.