【中美创新时报2024 年 7 月 20 日编译讯】（记者温友平编译）据两位知情人士透露，如果总统乔·拜登辞去民主党候选人的职务，唐纳德·特朗普的竞选团队正准备发起一场大规模的攻击副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的行动，包括一波广告，重点关注她在现任总统和加州的履历。《纽约时报》记者玛吉·哈伯曼（Maggie Haberman）和乔纳森·斯旺（Jonathan Swan）对此作了下述报道。
特朗普团队已经准备了关于哈里斯的反对派研究书籍，并有其他民主党人的类似档案，如果拜登退出竞选，他们可能会成为候选人。
但据这两位知情人士透露，到目前为止，大部分准备工作都集中在哈里斯身上，包括最近结束的一项民意调查，测试她在大选中的弱点。特朗普团队之所以关注哈里斯，是因为他们认为，如果民主党绕过第一位担任副总统的黑人女性，将加剧党内分歧，并有可能疏远黑人选民。
特朗普的盟友也开始调查被视为哈里斯潜在竞选搭档的民主党州长的记录。这位前总统的顾问特别关注宾夕法尼亚州州长乔希·夏皮罗——特朗普竞选团队最关注的州是赢得该州，以阻止民主党入主白宫。
特朗普竞选团队的发言人没有回复寻求置评的电子邮件。
哈里斯竞选团队的发言人布莱恩·法伦在一份声明中表示：“在破坏两党边境协议后，唐纳德·特朗普开始对副总统的记录撒谎。作为前地区检察官和司法部长，她在整个职业生涯中都在与像特朗普这样的骗子和重罪犯抗争。特朗普的谎言不会阻止她继续就这场竞选中最大的问题对他提起诉讼。”
自 6 月 27 日拜登在辩论中表现糟糕以来，特朗普及其政治行动已经软化了对总统的批评，希望他在党正式提名他之前保持政治活力，如果没有重大法律障碍，更换他就为时已晚。特朗普的高级团队更希望拜登继续参加竞选，认为拜登的低支持率以及选民对他的年龄和认知能力的普遍怀疑代表了这位前总统重夺白宫的最佳机会。
据一位了解特朗普竞选团队内部讨论情况、未获授权公开发言的人士称，辩论结束后，特朗普团队决定停止可能进一步损害拜登的广告。候选人名单顶部的变动可能会让一场相当稳定的竞选陷入混乱——尤其是如果哈里斯成为候选人的话，她将成为第一位当选总统的黑人女性。
据了解计划的人士透露，上周共和党全国代表大会在密尔沃基举行前不久，随着越来越多的民主党人呼吁拜登退出竞选，特朗普团队准备了反对哈里斯的标语和视频，向体育场馆的代表和家中的电视观众展示。但在大会开始前两天，即 7 月 13 日，一名年轻男子在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒试图暗杀特朗普后，他们放弃了这些计划。由于全国仍处于震惊之中，拜登退出竞选的压力短暂减弱，特朗普团队认为哈里斯的应急计划不再必要。
前全国共和党参议院委员会助理利亚姆·多诺万 (Liam Donovan) 表示，特朗普竞选团队一直打算让哈里斯成为故事的一部分，哈里斯曾多次表示拜登是候选人，他们是一起竞选的，尤其是拜登身体状况明显不佳。
多诺万说：“但随着竞选高层发生变动的前景，人们突然意识到要定义卡马拉·哈里斯，巩固长期以来让民主党人感到不安的平淡形象。”但他也指出了特朗普的一个潜在陷阱：“与另一位创造历史的候选人竞争，领先将给希望在黑人选民中获得历史性收益的竞选活动带来新的风险。”
一些特朗普助手私下表示，哈里斯可能比拜登更善于传达某些信息，特别是在堕胎权问题上，这个问题在 2022 年中期选举中激起了民主党人的热情。作为一名前检察官，她可能有能力对特朗普的刑事起诉提出尖锐的辩论，包括他在纽约市因伪造商业记录以隐瞒 2016 年向一名色情演员支付的封口费而被定罪。
但他们也认为，哈里斯必须为拜登时代每一项不受欢迎的政策负责，这将抵消她可能取得的成果。特别是，特朗普团队计划就边境危机攻击她，总统委托她寻找这一危机的“根本原因”。哈里斯的助手表示，特朗普扭曲了她的角色，并指出，无论如何，自拜登政府缩减庇护以来，过境人数有所下降。
他们还希望根据她在加州担任参议员的任期以及在此之前担任该州总检察长和旧金山地区检察官的经历来定义她，她在 2020 年总统竞选期间的记录被批评为对初犯毒品犯罪者过于保守或过于宽容。
据了解该战略的人士称，如果拜登退出 2024 年竞选但不辞去总统职务，共和党人将辩称，他退出竞选的原因与他不适合继续担任总司令的原因相同。他们会试图将哈里斯与拜登联系起来，声称他们正在广泛努力阻止公众看到总统的恶化，并暗示她是这一努力的一部分。
参加竞争激烈的国会竞选的共和党人正在接受这一信息。在俄亥俄州民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗周五呼吁拜登退出竞选后，他的共和党对手伯尼·莫雷诺在社交平台 X 上发帖称：“如果乔·拜登不适合参选，他就不适合任职。我正式呼吁乔·拜登辞去总统职务，因为他继续留在战情室是对国家安全的威胁。我希望布朗参议员能和我一起批评。”
共和党人长期以来一直在批评哈里斯。多年来，她一直是共和党类似攻击的受害者，尤其是在边境问题和拜登的敏锐性方面。尽管没有推出视频或标语，但上周几名共和党人在大会上将她作为关注焦点的一部分，既提到了她和拜登，也提到了她自己。
在民主党人蹒跚着走向解决方案的同时，特朗普竞选团队在进入大选时对自己的地位感到惊叹。拜登的团队今年在广告上花费了数千万美元，但总统在与特朗普的竞争中并未取得进展。然而，特朗普竞选团队及其盟友外部团体花费的资金要少得多，据说未来几个月有大量现金储备。
据一位知情人士透露，自特朗普遇刺以来的一周内，由前特朗普助手泰勒·布多维奇 (Taylor Budowich) 管理的一群外部团体筹集了 7500 万美元。特朗普竞选团队和盟友团体都在节约资源，尤其是自从特朗普在 5 月底在纽约市被定罪后获得了一笔意外的筹款收入以来。
布多维奇管理的超级政治行动委员会 MAGA Inc. 已经对可能取代拜登的潜在候选人进行了自己的反对派研究。但该组织和竞选团队一样，认为哈里斯是最有可能的候选人，那里的官员对她进行了广泛的信息测试。
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民意调查发现，哈里斯在与特朗普的对决中的地位略高于总统。然而，这项民意调查是在特朗普遇刺前完成的。
尽管如此，民意调查员吉姆·霍巴特表示，哈里斯在全国范围内的起点相当明确。霍巴特的公司 Public Opinion Strategies 正在帮助 NBC 进行这项两党民意调查。
在最近的调查中，他说，“50% 的选民已经对哈里斯持负面看法。只有 32% 的人持正面看法，”他说。“如果她成为提名人，这些正面数据会有所改善吗？当然。但请记住，她从未表现出自己是一个特别有能力的候选人。”
他指出，哈里斯在 2010 年的司法部长竞选中以微弱优势获胜，而在 2020 年的总统竞选中却遭遇失败。
据一位知情官员称，共和党全国委员会正在密切关注民主党候选人名单上可能出现的变化，并保留了与拜登竞选资金的潜在转移和使用相关的诉讼可能性。
例如，如果为哈里斯成立了一个新委员会，而向拜登-哈里斯竞选团队捐款最高金额为 6,600 美元的捐赠者试图向她捐款，共和党人可能会提起诉讼，称这是超额捐款，这位官员说。他们还在关注哈里斯作为推定提名人是否会在被党正式提名之前试图获取资金。
这位官员说，如果拜登团队尝试一些未经测试的做法，比如将资金转移到支持候选人的超级政治行动委员会，也可能会引发诉讼。
即使此类诉讼不能阻止这些行动，它们也可能会阻碍新民主党竞选进程，并凸显民主党所面临的混乱局面。
本文最初刊登于《纽约时报》。
题图：副总统卡马拉·哈里斯本月在北卡罗来纳州费耶特维尔的竞选活动上发表讲话。ERIN SCHAFF/NYT
附原英文报道：
Trump campaign prepares attack plan for Harris in case Biden withdraws
By Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan New York Times,Updated July 20, 2024
Donald Trump’s campaign is preparing a major effort to attack Vice President Kamala Harris if President Joe Biden steps aside as the Democratic nominee, including a wave of ads focusing on her record in her current office and in California, according to two people briefed on the matter.
The Trump team has prepared opposition research books on Harris, and has similar dossiers on other Democrats who could become the nominee if Biden drops out of the race.
But the bulk of the preparations so far have been focused on Harris, including a recently concluded poll testing her vulnerabilities in a general election contest, according to the two people. The Trump team’s attention on Harris is based on its assumption that if Democrats were to bypass the first Black woman to serve as vice president, it would drive even deeper divisions in the party and risk alienating their base of Black voters.
Trump allies have also begun examining the records of Democratic governors who are considered potential running mates for Harris. Advisers to the former president are paying especially close attention to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — the state the Trump campaign is most focused on winning to block the Democrats’ path to the White House.
A Trump campaign spokesperson did not respond to an email seeking comment.
Brian Fallon, a campaign spokesperson for Harris, said in a statement: “After tanking the bipartisan border deal, Donald Trump has resorted to lying about the vice president’s record. As a former district attorney and attorney general, she has stood up to fraudsters and felons like Trump her entire career. Trump’s lies won’t stop her from continuing to prosecute the case against him on the biggest issues in this race.”
Since Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27, Trump and his political operation have softened their criticisms of the president, hoping he stays politically viable until the party formally nominates him and it’s too late to replace him without major legal hurdles. Trump’s senior team would prefer that Biden remains in the race, believing his low approval numbers and voters’ widespread doubts about his age and cognitive fitness represent the former president’s best chance at reclaiming the White House.
After the debate, the Trump team decided to hold back advertising that could further damage Biden, according to one person briefed on the Trump campaign’s internal discussions, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. A change at the top of the ticket could throw a remarkably stable race into chaos — particularly if Harris, who would be the first Black woman elected president, becomes the nominee.
Shortly before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this past week, as a growing number of Democrats called for Biden to leave the race, the Trump team prepared anti-Harris signs and videos to show the delegates in the arena and the television audience at home, according to people briefed on the plans. But they scrapped those plans after a young man tried to assassinate Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, two days before the start of the convention. With the nation still in shock, the pressure on Biden to leave the race briefly abated, and the Trump team assumed the Harris contingency plans were no longer necessary.
The Trump campaign was always going to make Harris — who has repeatedly said that Biden is the nominee and that they’re running together — part of the story, particularly with Biden’s visible physical struggles, said Liam Donovan, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide.
“But with the prospect of a switch at the top of the ticket, there’s a sudden sense of urgency around defining Kamala Harris and cementing a lackluster image that has long made Democrats queasy,” Donovan said. But he also noted a potential pitfall for Trump: “Being the front-runner against another history-making candidate would introduce new risks for a campaign hoping to reap historic gains among Black voters.”
Some Trump aides say privately that Harris might be better at delivering certain messages than Biden has been, particularly on abortion rights, an issue that galvanized Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. And as a former prosecutor, she may be positioned make a sharp argument about Trump’s criminal indictments, including his conviction in New York City on charges that he falsified business records to conceal a hush-money payment to a porn actor in 2016.
But they also believe Harris will have to own every unpopular Biden-era policy, which will cancel out the gains she might make. In particular, the Trump team plans to attack her over the border crisis, one that the president tasked her with finding the “root causes” of. Aides to Harris have said that Trump has distorted her role, and have noted that regardless, border crossings have fallen since a Biden administration curtailing of asylum.
They are also looking to define her based on her tenure as a senator in California and, before that, her time as the state’s attorney general and as the district attorney of San Francisco, where her record during her 2020 presidential campaign was criticized alternately as too conservative or too lenient toward first-time drug offenders.
According to people briefed on the strategy, if Biden drops out of the 2024 race but doesn’t resign as president, Republicans will argue that the reasons he quit the race are the same reasons he’s unfit to remain as commander in chief. They will try to tie Harris to Biden by claiming there was a broad effort to prevent the public from seeing the president’s deterioration and suggest she was part of that effort.
Republicans running in competitive congressional races are adopting this message. After Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, on Friday called on Biden to leave the race, his Republican rival Bernie Moreno posted on the social platform X: “If Joe Biden is unfit to run, he is unfit to serve. I am formally calling on Joe Biden to resign the presidency because his continued presence in the situation room is a national security threat. I hope Senator Brown will join me.”
Republicans have long criticized Harris. She has been on the receiving end of similar Republican attacks, particularly about the border and Biden’s acuity, for years. And despite not rolling out videos or signs, several Republicans made her part of their focus during their convention this past week, mentioning her both in conjunction with Biden and also on her own.
While Democrats are stumbling toward resolution, the Trump campaign has marveled at its position heading into the general election. Biden’s team has spent tens of millions of dollars in advertising this year, but the president has not gained ground in the race against Trump. The Trump campaign and its allied outside groups, however, have spent far less and are said to have significant cash reserves for the months ahead.
In the week since the assassination attempt against Trump, a collection of outside groups run by a former Trump aide, Taylor Budowich, has raised $75 million, according to a person briefed on the amount. Both the Trump campaign and allied groups have been conserving resources, particularly since Trump had a fundraising windfall after he was criminally convicted in New York City at the end of May.
The super political action committee that Budowich runs, MAGA Inc., has conducted its own opposition research on prospective nominees who might replace Biden. But the group, like the campaign, assumes Harris is the likeliest prospect, and officials there have conducted extensive message-testing about her.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris in a slightly stronger position against Trump than the president. The poll, however, was completed before the assassination attempt on Trump.
Still, Jim Hobart, a pollster whose firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is helping to conduct NBC’s bipartisan poll, said Harris is starting from a fairly defined place nationally.
In the most recent survey, he said, “50% of voters already have a negative opinion of Harris. Just 32% have a positive opinion,” he said. “Could those positive numbers improve if she is the nominee? Sure. But remember, she has never shown herself to be a particularly skilled candidate.”
He pointed to her narrow win in the 2010 attorney general’s race, and the bust that was her presidential campaign in 2020.
The Republican National Committee is closely tracking possible changes on the Democratic ticket and is leaving open the possibility of lawsuits related to the potential transfer and use of Biden campaign funds, according to one official with knowledge of the matter.
For instance, if a new committee is created for Harris, and donors who have donated the $6,600 maximum to the Biden-Harris campaign try to donate to her, Republicans are likely to sue, arguing it’s an over-the-limit donation, the official said. They’re also watching whether Harris as the presumptive nominee would try to access money before she is formally nominated by her party.
And should the Biden team try something untested, such as transferring its money to a super PAC that supports a candidate, a lawsuit is also likely to follow, the official said.
Even if such lawsuits don’t stop the actions, they could gum up the gears of the new Democratic ticket moving forward and highlight the chaos that Democrats have been facing.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
